The Middle East’s most meaningful alliance has endured territorial disputes, succession crises and the pressures of war in the neighborhood. Now the partnership between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is being tested by a more existential challenge: economics.
It will survive because the two Gulf Arab countries have many common interests, especially in the spheres of geopolitics and security: They are both threatened by Iran and its proxies, are wary of Turkey’s growing influence in the region and fear the political Islam propagated by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots. Their de facto rulers, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, have a close personal friendship.
But as they chart different economic courses for a post-oil future, the Saudis and Emiratis will find themselves in conflict as often as in a clinch.
On occasion, their disagreements will have global consequences. Take their latest ructions over oil-production quotas, which threaten to inflate gasoline prices everywhere. At other times, the ramifications of their economic rivalry will be mostly local, such as Riyadh’s self-defeating attempt to lure multinational companies away from Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
But on issues of regional importance, the two sides will find a modus vivendi even when they are not entirely in accord. The Saudis showed no outward sign of anger when the UAE scaled down its involvement in their joint military campaign in Yemen. And the Emiratis made no official protest when the Saudis ended their embargo of Qatar.
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