Slow global economic growth will keep crude prices anchored below $90 a barrel this year and next, unless the Israel-Hamas conflict draws in more countries in the Middle East and exacerbates supply tightness, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
A survey of 40 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $84.80 a barrel this year, and $86.62 in 2024, little changed from estimates of $84.09 and $86.45 projected in September.
The global benchmark Brent crude has averaged around $82.60 a barrel so far this year.
U.S. crude forecasts were also a tad higher at $80.32 a barrel for 2023 and $83.02 next year, from the $79.64 and $82.99 consensus last month.
"The major drivers will continue to be geopolitics and the extent of economic growth," said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.
If the Middle East situation spins out of control, the price of Brent crude will likely test $115 or higher if there is a disruption to oil supply, Paisie added.
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