Tuesday 18 December 2018

`Dumb-Money' for Saudi Stocks Won't Be Enough to Aid Market - Bloomberg

`Dumb-Money' for Saudi Stocks Won't Be Enough to Aid Market - Bloomberg:

While billions of dollars will flow into Saudi Arabia with its inclusion in MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market benchmark in June, don’t count on the passive money to revive the market’s fortunes, says Eaton Vance Corp.

Government-related funds, which appeared to have propped up Saudi equities following the murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi in October, will probably become sellers next year to investors tracking the MSCI index -- in classic buy-low, sell-high style, according to the Boston-based money manager. The kingdom will probably announce its 2019 budget later today.

“We would expect a dumb-money passive bid to purchase Saudi equities, regardless of their valuation, which, I might add, is not particularly cheap,” said Marshall Stocker, a Boston-based portfolio manager at Eaton Vance, which oversees about $439 billion. “I do not think the Saudi stock market will trade up upon inclusion. Instead, the Saudi state may prove ingenious in selling their holdings to index funds.”

#Qatar Helps StanChart Dethrone HSBC as Gulf's Top Bond Manager - Bloomberg

Qatar Helps StanChart Dethrone HSBC as Gulf's Top Bond Manager - Bloomberg:

Standard Chartered Plc replaced HSBC Holdings Plc as the top manager for bonds and sukuk in the Gulf region this year.

HSBC lost out after not doing a single deal in Qatar since June 2017, when Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states imposed a diplomatic embargo on their neighbor. Fellow British lender Standard Chartered continued to manage bonds in both countries -- leapfrogging its rival in the process.

Oil Plunge Threatens to Leave Even Parts of Permian Under Water - Bloomberg

Oil Plunge Threatens to Leave Even Parts of Permian Under Water - Bloomberg:

The plunge in U.S. oil prices has wells in some parts of the Permian Basin below break-even levels, threatening to put the brakes on the record flow from the prolific field.

Oil produced from the Permian in Midland, Texas, is now trading below $40 a barrel for the first time since August 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as West Texas Intermediate futures dropped more than 6 percent Tuesday.

U.S. oil production is set to rise by 1.18 million barrels a day to 12.06 million next year, according to a U.S. government forecast, with Permian growth expected to lead the way. While U.S. shale producers could make money at $50 oil, industry analysts say, sub $40 oil may be a different story.

Foreigners Can't Stop Selling in the Worst Stock Market of 2018 - Bloomberg

Foreigners Can't Stop Selling in the Worst Stock Market of 2018 - Bloomberg:

Foreigners don’t seem to want to enter the new year holding shares in the worst performing market of 2018.

Overseas investors in Dubai’s main stock exchange were net sellers of 853 million dirhams ($232 million) of shares as of the end of last week, the most for a single year since the data started being provided. The category excludes investors from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council and other Arab countries.

Foreigners are fleeing Dubai’s main bourse after the value traded shrank to the level of 2013 amid growing concerns tied to the performance of the local economy. The DFM General Index has retracted 25 percent this year, more than any other major index in the world, mostly pressured by stocks of developers and real estate companies.

Oil Spirals Below $47 as Dark Clouds Envelop Demand Outlook - Bloomberg

Oil Spirals Below $47 as Dark Clouds Envelop Demand Outlook - Bloomberg:

Economic jitters and surging supplies from the U.S. to Russia hammered oil again, with crude suffering its biggest decline in more than three weeks.

Futures slid 7.3 percent in New York on Tuesday, putting prices on track for their worst quarterly loss since the start of the last oil market crash in late 2014. Anxieties over growth swirled as Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared to push back against U.S. President Donald Trump in a Beijing speech and American investors braced for an interest-rate hike. Another late-afternoon fizzle for U.S. equities added to the dour outlook.

“Sentiment is negative, it’s low-volume trading and we’re not getting any good news," said Ashley Petersen, lead oil analyst at Stratas Advisors in New York.

Saudi King Extends Billions in Handouts for Another Year - Bloomberg

Saudi King Extends Billions in Handouts for Another Year - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman extended handout payments worth billions of dollars to citizens for another year to to cushion the impact of rising costs, a decision that may raise questions about the government’s commitment to trimming its wage bill.

The monarch, in a royal order carried by the official Saudi Press Agency, ordered the renewal of the cost of living allowance until a study of the kingdom’s “social protection system” is completed. The package will cost around 40 billion riyals ($10.7 billion), according to the Ministry of Finance.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told Bloomberg in October that the government was looking into the best ways to compensate Saudis who need support for the increase in domestic energy prices and the introduction of value-added taxation. Those measures were designed to bolster non-oil revenue but have weighed on consumer demand.

Saudi collected more than 50 billion riyals in 2018 from Ritz settlements: minister | Reuters

Saudi collected more than 50 billion riyals in 2018 from Ritz settlements: minister | Reuters:

Saudi Arabian government collected more than 50 billion riyal ($13.33 billion) so far this year from settlements reached with detainees in a crackdown on corruption launched at the end of last year, said Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan on Tuesday.

Scores of top officials and businessmen were detained in Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton Hotel in a purge, which began in November 2017. Investigators said earlier this year they aimed to seize some $100 billion overall.

#UAE backs Saudi rebuke of US Senate over Khashoggi killing

UAE backs Saudi rebuke of US Senate over Khashoggi killing:

The United Arab Emirates has thrown its support behind Saudi Arabia’s rebuke of the U.S. Senate, which passed a resolution last week blaming Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The UAE, a close U.S. ally and major weapons buyer, released a statement affirming its “policy of full solidarity” with Saudi Arabia with regards to the U.S. Senate decision and “against anyone who attempts to undermine the kingdom’s stature and regional position.”

The statement, published Wednesday on the state-run WAM news agency, said the UAE rejects “unfounded allegations and accusations” as well as “attempts that would harm Saudi Arabia’s fundamental role as a major power ensuring security and stability in the Arab and Muslim worlds.

WTO to investigate Qatari allegations of Saudi piracy | Reuters

WTO to investigate Qatari allegations of Saudi piracy | Reuters:

The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Tuesday it would investigate Qatar’s allegations of intellectual property breaches against Saudi Arabia, despite the kingdom’s objection that the WTO had no standing to hear the case. Employees work in a broadcast control room at the beIN Sports studio that will be hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Doha, Qatar October 16, 2018. Picture taken October 16, 2018. REUTERS/Naseem Zeitoon

Qatar launched the dispute in October, saying Saudi Arabia was blocking Qatari-owned broadcaster beIN and refusing to take effective action against alleged piracy of beIN’s content by “beoutQ”, a sophisticated pirating operation.

Saudi Arabia this month sought to block the case from being accepted, arguing that because of vital security interests tied to its boycott of Qatar, the trade dispute body could not hear the case.

Saudi 2019 budget boosts spending in bid to spur sluggish economy | Reuters

Saudi 2019 budget boosts spending in bid to spur sluggish economy | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia plans to increase state spending by 7 percent next year in an effort to spur economic growth that has been hurt by low oil prices, according to a 2019 state budget announced by King Salman on Tuesday.

Spending is projected to rise to an all-time high of 1.106 trillion riyals ($295 billion), from an actual 1.030 trillion riyals this year.

“We are determined to go ahead with economic reform, achieving fiscal discipline, improving transparency and empowering the private sector,” the king said in a nationally televised speech.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf indexes fall on weak oil prices, real estate dampens #Dubai | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf indexes fall on weak oil prices, real estate dampens Dubai | Reuters:

The Dubai stock market fell sharply on Tuesday to post its biggest one-day loss since June as real estate stocks slid, while tumbling oil prices dragged down all major Gulf bourses.

Oil prices fell 4 percent after reports of swelling inventories and forecasts of record U.S. and Russian output combined with a sharp sell-off in stock markets as the outlook for global growth deteriorated.

In Dubai, the index dropped 2.1 percent with the emirate’s largest lender, Emirates NBD, shedding 4.6 percent and its biggest listed developer, Emaar Properties , falling 2.3 percent.

Saudi 2019 budget boosts spending in bid to spur sluggish economy | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi 2019 budget boosts spending in bid to spur sluggish economy | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Saudi Arabia plans to increase state spending by more than 7 percent next year in an effort to spur economic growth, which has been hurt by low oil prices, an embargoed finance ministry document showed on Tuesday.

Spending is projected to rise to 1.106 trillion riyals ($295 billion) next year, up from an actual 1.030 trillion riyals this year.

#Oman's bonds tumble as Fitch cuts credit rating to junk | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Oman's bonds tumble as Fitch cuts credit rating to junk | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Oman's dollar-denominated government bonds fell on Tuesday after Fitch became the second major rating agency to cut the country to 'junk'.

Fitch's move leaves Moody's as the only firm to rate Oman as investment grade, a level key for keeping a country's debt in the major indexes tracked by fund managers.

Oman's 2023-maturing dollar bond fell 1.5 cents in the dollar, while its slightly shorter-term 2021 bonds dropped almost 1 cent.

Investment Corporation of #Dubai reports 9.56% drop in H1 profits | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Investment Corporation of Dubai reports 9.56% drop in H1 profits | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Investment Corporation of Dubai (ICD), the sovereign wealth fund which owns the Emirates airline group and stakes in several Dubai banks, has reported a 9.56 percent decline in net profit attributable to its shareholders for the first six months of 2018, falling to 7.47 billion United Arab Emirates dirhams ($2.03 bilion), despite revenue increasing by 23.4 percent year-on-year to 115.1 billion dirhams.

ICD, which also owns Emirates National Oil Refining Company (ENOC), said revenues grew across all of its different business segments, but its oil and gas and transportation divisions witnessed the biggest increases as a result of higher oil prices.

In a press statement that was published announcing its results, ICD said that the company's net profit "benefited from continued strength in Banking and Financial Services, which offset headwinds in Transportation Services due to increased fuel prices and the strength of the US Dollar".

#Dubai's TVM Capital Widens Fund Focus After Abraaj Collapse - Bloomberg

Dubai's TVM Capital Widens Fund Focus After Abraaj Collapse - Bloomberg:

Dubai-based private equity firm TVM Capital Healthcare hopes to close a $250 million global fund next year after the collapse of Abraaj, one of the Middle East’s biggest buyout firms, hurt investor confidence in the region.

Fund-raising, which started last December, has been delayed by about a year and the fund will target companies in developed markets seeking to grow in the Middle East North Africa, Turkey, South East Asia and India, as well as investing directly in emerging market firms, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Helmut Schuehsler said in an interview.

“We had good fundraising in the first quarter but then things pretty much came to a stand still and it was difficult to have conversations with investors,” he said. “Obviously the problem in Abraaj hasn’t done the industry at large any service, but things are beginning to get better now.”

Khashoggi Effect or Oil Pinch? What to Look for in Saudi Budget - Bloomberg

Khashoggi Effect or Oil Pinch? What to Look for in Saudi Budget - Bloomberg:

As Saudi Arabia’s rulers were finalizing spending plans for 2019, two unfolding dramas were pulling them in opposite directions.

The clash is focusing attention on the kingdom’s budget, due out on Tuesday. It’s an event that had already gained in significance, with the Saudis seeking to reduce reliance on oil exports. A preliminary version was released in September.

But since then, there’s been an explosion of international outrage over the Oct. 2 murder of columnist and regime critic Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents. That’s led some analysts to speculate that the government may seek to rally domestic support -- by taking steps to stimulate the economy. At the same time, oil prices have plunged almost 30 percent in the past three months, eating into the revenue available to finance spending.

`Dumb-Money' for Saudi Stocks Won't Be Enough to Aid Market - Bloomberg

`Dumb-Money' for Saudi Stocks Won't Be Enough to Aid Market - Bloomberg:

While billions of dollars will flow into Saudi Arabia with its inclusion in MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market benchmark in June, don’t count on the passive money to revive the market’s fortunes, says Eaton Vance Corp.

Government-related funds, which appeared to have propped up Saudi equities following the murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi in October, will probably become sellers next year to investors tracking the MSCI index -- in classic buy-low, sell-high style, according to the Boston-based money manager. The kingdom may announce its 2019 budget on Tuesday.

“We would expect a dumb-money passive bid to purchase Saudi equities, regardless of their valuation, which, I might add, is not particularly cheap,” said Marshall Stocker, a Boston-based portfolio manager at Eaton Vance, which oversees about $439 billion. “I do not think the Saudi stock market will trade up upon inclusion. Instead, the Saudi state may prove ingenious in selling their holdings to index funds.”

Mideast Stocks: Real estate weighs on Dubai, all major Gulf markets down | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Real estate weighs on Dubai, all major Gulf markets down | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The Dubai stock market fell sharply early on Tuesday, dragged down by property stocks, while all major Middle Eastern bourses dropped in line with a plunge of Wall Street stocks, which slid to its lowest levels in more than a year.

In Dubai, the index dropped 1.0 percent with the emirate's largest listed developer, Emaar Properties, sliding 3.3 percent and Dubai Investments, shedding 2.3 percent.

Dubai's weak real estate market has been a big drag for property shares this year with Emaar Properties down more than a third year-to-date. Dubai inflation data released on Monday showed housing and utility costs falling 4.7 percent year-on-year, their biggest decline in years.

Changes to Dubai's DFSA collective investment funds regime come into force | Reuters

Changes to Dubai's DFSA collective investment funds regime come into force | Reuters:

Dubai Financial Services Authority said on Tuesday that changes to its collective investment funds regime had come into force.

The regulator said the Dubai Financial Centre had almost 70 funds registered within the financial free zone.

In 2019, Mideast economic troubles loom as wars wind down

In 2019, Mideast economic troubles loom as wars wind down:

As the Middle East ushers in 2019, the decade’s ruinous conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq seem to be winding down after exacting a painful price — many thousands killed, millions uprooted from their homes and entire cities reduced to rubble.

Yet the potential for unrest remains high, including in countries that escaped civil war after the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, such as Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt. Millions of young people in the region remain locked out of economic and political participation as authoritarian governments fail to tackle soaring youth unemployment and other deep-seated problems.

“I think 2019 is a very challenging year,” said analyst Amer Sabaileh in Jordan, where weekly rallies against economic policies toppled a prime minister this year and now take aim at his successor.

#UAE's Mubadala, EGA & Dubal Holding to develop water & power plant in Dubai | Reuters

UAE's Mubadala, EGA & Dubal Holding to develop water & power plant in Dubai | Reuters:

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), Mubadala Investment Co and Dubal Holding on Tuesday announced plans to develop a power and water desalination plant at EGA’s smelter in Jebel Ali in Dubai.

The 25-year agreement is worth more than 1 billion dirhams ($272.5 million), the companies said in a joint statement.

The joint venture will install a combined cycle power facility at EGA’s Jebel Ali site capable of generating over 600 megawatts of electricity.

#UAE's Utico plans stock market listing, hires ENBD Capital | Reuters

UAE's Utico plans stock market listing, hires ENBD Capital | Reuters:

United Arab Emirates’ utility Utico Middle East has hired Emirates NBD Capital for a potential share sale and public listing, the company said on Tuesday.

Utico, the only privately-owned utility in the UAE, also said a trans-emirate water pipeline built at a cost of $100 million was now operational. Demand for water and power in the UAE is expected to grow by 5 to 6 percent annually in the next few years as the population grows and industrialisation spreads, according to estimates by state-owned utilities. “We are looking at a public listing in the near future,” said Richard Menezes, chief executive of Utico.

No further details about the listing or valuation were provided.

Oil prices drop almost 4% on supply and global growth concerns | Financial Times

Oil prices drop almost 4% on supply and global growth concerns | Financial Times:

Oil prices were under further strain on Tuesday following falls overnight amid persistent concerns over supplies and a broader fall this week in risk assets.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 3.7 per cent in early London dealings to $57.31 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, its US counterpart, dropped by 4 per cent to $47.95, hitting the lowest level since September 2017.

The latest leg lower in oil prices, down sharply from October’s peaks, was due “in large part” to broader market ructions on Monday, which saw global developed and emerging market equities drop 1.7 per cent, according to Warren Patterson, commodities strategist at ING. Falls continued, albeit more mildly, into Tuesday, with MSCI’s broad global benchmark off another 0.3 per cent.