Tuesday 31 December 2019

Happy New Year for 2020, as this blog enters twelfth year of publication via blogger

Image creditsCreator:Christian HorzCredit:Getty Images/iStockphoto


Oil posts biggest yearly rise since 2016 - Reuters

Oil posts biggest yearly rise since 2016 - Reuters:

Oil prices fell 1% on Tuesday, the last trading day of the decade, but notched the biggest annual gain in three years, supported by a thaw in the prolonged U.S.-China trade war and ongoing supply cuts from major oil producers.

Brent gained about 23% in 2019 and WTI rose 34%, their biggest yearly gains in three years, backed by the recent breakthrough in the trade talks and output cuts pledged by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies.

Forecasters do not expect oil prices to move sharply in either direction next year. Brent crude is expected to hover around $63 a barrel, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, down modestly from current levels, as OPEC production cuts offset weaker demand.

Over the past year, increased U.S. oil output offset the supply reductions undertaken by OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia and stemming from U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Lackluster demand, including in developed economies, remains a primary concern headed into 2020.

Brent crude LCOc1 fell 67 cents, or 1%, to settle at $66.00 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell 62 cents, or 1%, to settle at $61.06 a barrel.

On Tuesday, trade volumes were low with many market participants away for year-end holidays, amplifying the market’s moves.

End of the party: why Lebanon’s debt crisis has left it vulnerable | Financial Times

End of the party: why Lebanon’s debt crisis has left it vulnerable | Financial Times:

In 2008, as mountains of bad debt collapsed and economies around the world crumbled, carefree gamblers at the central bank-owned Casino du Liban rolled dice and spun roulette wheels. Unscathed by the global financial crisis, Beirut glittered as the Middle East’s party capital and purveyor of discrete financial services.

Lebanon offered wealthy investors something they could not get elsewhere — high interest rates for low risk investments. While the rest of the world’s central banks tried to boost post-crisis recovery by holding borrowing costs at 1 per cent or less, the Banque du Liban pushed rates up so high that returns of more than 10 per cent became common for depositors. The central bank paid so much because it badly needed a constant supply of dollars to maintain a currency peg against the US dollar, pay for imports and fund the government. “Lebanon relies on remittances,” Riad Salame, central bank governor, told the FT in 2018.

That reliance on money from overseas left the government vulnerable and sliding ever further into debt, especially as economic growth has been sluggish since the start of the Arab spring in 2011. A bungled October effort at raising funds via a tax on WhatsApp calls triggered Lebanon’s biggest protests in over a decade, adding to the political paralysis and deepening the economic crisis.

A bungled October effort at raising funds via a tax on WhatsApp calls triggered huge street protests © Mohamed Azakir/Reuters

#Russia and #Ukraine sign deal to secure European gas flows | Financial Times

Russia and Ukraine sign deal to secure European gas flows | Financial Times:

Russia and Ukraine have struck a deal that guarantees the flow of gas to Europe for a further five years, a day before the expiry of the previous 10-year contract between their national gas companies.

The new deal closes off a potential schism between Russia and Europe while benefiting Ukraine financially.

Alexei Miller, Gazprom chief executive, said in a statement released late on Monday that the agreement between the Russian state-owned gas company and Ukraine’s Naftogaz had been reached after five days of talks in Vienna.

It is made up of a series of contracts encompassing a “large package deal restoring the interests of both sides”, Mr Miller said.

Oil’s Turbulent 2019: #Saudi Supply Panic to Freight Rate Frenzy - Bloomberg

Oil’s Turbulent 2019: Saudi Supply Panic to Freight Rate Frenzy - Bloomberg:

It’s been a tumultuous 2019 for the oil market. The year has seen surging crude prices due to attacks on key Saudi Arabian energy facilities and skyrocketing freight rates after American sanctions on Chinese shipping companies. On another front, oil processing margins in Asia have slumped to the lowest in more than a decade, while IMO 2020 is rattling the market.

Here are four charts that showcase the key events in 2019:

Strike Surge

Brent oil jumped by almost 15% on Sept. 16 -- the most ever in a single day -- following an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, which halved the kingdom’s output. While production has returned to normal, prices remain elevated and are set for the biggest yearly gain since 2016 after a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks and a pledge by OPEC+ to deepen cuts.


MIDEAST STOCKS- #Dubai outperforms major Gulf bourses in 2019; #Oman remains pressured - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Dubai outperforms major Gulf bourses in 2019; Oman remains pressured - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters:

Dubai's index ended the year up more than
9%, outperforming other major Gulf markets, while Kuwait led the
region with a 32% gain and Oman fell for a third year in a row.

Dubai dropped 0.2% on Tuesday as Dubai Islamic Bank
lost 0.7% and Emirates NBD slipped 0.4%, but
it closed 9.3% up over the year, despite slumping real estate
prices.

Saudi Arabia rose 0.5%, bringing its annual gains to
7.2%. Riyad Bank added 2% on Tuesday, while Aramco
rose 0.3%, at 35.3 riyals.

Oil giant Aramco commenced trading on Dec. 11 after a
long-awaited market listing, surging 10% from the initial public
offering price of 32 riyals ($8.53). The increase helped the
company close in on the $2 trillion valuation long sought by
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Big Banks Turn Bearish On Oil Next Year | OilPrice.com

Big Banks Turn Bearish On Oil Next Year | OilPrice.com:

As the year draws to a close, the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks are trading at $66.55 and $61.54, respectively.

From $60.65 to $64.50, investment bank and analyst projections for Brent crude prices next year are starting to come in. Most forecasts had the luxury of OPEC’s deeper production cuts under the belt, but by and large, analysts are predicting only lackluster, short-term price gains from the cartel’s actions.

Goldman Sachs – $63/$60. Goldman has updated its 2020 oil price forecast to account for the new OPEC production cuts sealed a couple weeks ago. Its latest projection now sees the Brent benchmark averaging $63 per barrel next year, up from their previous $60 per barrel projection. For the US WTI benchmark, the investment bank sees it averaging $58.50 per barrel. Part of its rationale for the increase was its perceived shift in OPEC strategy—shifting away from trying to correct long-term supply and demand imbalances and toward short-term imbalances. As a result, the Goldman sees the gap between supply and demand next year tightening by 300,000 more barrels per day compared to what they had previously forecast.

Why The Saudis Suddenly Agreed To This Mega Oil Deal | OilPrice.com

Why The Saudis Suddenly Agreed To This Mega Oil Deal | OilPrice.com:

Strange, is it not, that an agreement has suddenly been reached between Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Kuwait on the oil and gas fields that they share in the ‘Neutral Zone’ after a bitter dispute that showed no sign of ending after nearly five years? Aside from the pure peculiarity of this sudden announcement, there is the fact that the deal will throw another 500,000-600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil into an already saturated market, against a declining demand profile, at a time when Saudi for one needs the oil price around US$84 per barrel just to allow this year’s budget to break even.

Add to this the fact that half of the new output will be added to Saudi Arabia’s production figure (and the other half to Kuwait’s) at a time when Saudi is supposed to be setting the primary example on compliance with the latest OPEC+ oil production deal and we seem to be entering the ‘Alice In Wonderland’ world in which nothing is as it seems. Actually, this is right, it is not what it seems at all, but OilPrice.com knows why.

The first part of the reason (there are two key parts) dates back to 14 September when two of Saudi Arabia’s key oil facilities – the Abqaiq refinery and the Khurais oil field – were attacked by drones fired by rebel Houthis (and/or Iran). This caused both the suspension of 5.7 million bpd of oil production and an unusually brazen bout of lying and/or market ignorance from the Saudis on such a scale that even the usually collusive credit ratings agencies could barely keep up. 

#Saudi Plan to Wean Off Oil Sees Success Even as Economy Stalls - Bloomberg

Saudi Plan to Wean Off Oil Sees Success Even as Economy Stalls - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank 0.5% in the third quarter, a contraction that was broadly expected even as the kingdom’s goal of weaning itself off crude began to pay off with solid growth in non-oil sectors.

The overall economy was weighed down by shrinkage of 6.4% in the country’s oil sector, according to data released Tuesday by the General Authority for Statistics. Overall growth for 2019 is expected to accelerate to a modest 0.4%, according to the latest government estimates, before climbing to 2.3% next year.

Non-oil sectors of the economy grew 4.3% in the third quarter compared to about 2% for the same period of 2018, a sign of Crown Prince’s Mohammed bin Salman’s initiative to diversify the world’s top oil exporter’s economy from crude.

Earlier this year, Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said the government plans to gradually reduce spending as private-sector growth picks up and businesses take the lead.

Non-Arab foreign investment in #UAE stocks $3.4bln in 2019 | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Non-Arab foreign investment in UAE stocks $3.4bln in 2019 | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The net investments of non-Arab foreign investors in the UAE’s financial markets doubled 11 times in 2019, jumping to AED12.5 billion.

The level of net investments of non-Arab foreigners in the Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets is the highest in five years, which reflects their success in attracting foreign investments.

The Securities and Commodities Authority, SCA, continued adopting systems to attract capital and local and international expertise in 2019, by upgrading markets at international index providers.

Four years ago, the UAE was upgraded to an emerging market by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which was a global acknowledgement that the country’s financial markets have reached international standards, leading to more long-term capital flow from foreign investors.

#Qatar's state investor also part of Tencent's Universal deal - Reuters

Qatar's state investor also part of Tencent's Universal deal - Reuters:

Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) is another member of the Tencent-led consortium buying a 10% stake in Vivendi’s (VIV.PA) Universal Music Group, a source familiar with the deal said on Tuesday.

Qatar’s state investor, QIA, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Etihad Airways tight-lipped on Air India investment speculation - Arabianbusiness

Etihad Airways tight-lipped on Air India investment speculation - Arabianbusiness:

Etihad Airways has refused to comment on speculation linking the Abu Dhabi-based carrier with an interest in troubled Air India.

According to a report in The Economic Times, Etihad and IndiGo, India’s largest airline by market share, have both met with government officials to express an interest in Air India.


The newspaper quotes an unnamed senior government official.

However, an Etihad Airways spokesperson told Arabian Business: “Etihad does not comment on rumour or speculation.”

The Indian government intends to privatise Air India, along with its subsidiary airline Air India Express and other core units, by selling off its 100 percent equity stake in the company.

Israel begins pumping from lucrative Mediterranean gas field

Israel begins pumping from lucrative Mediterranean gas field:

Israel on Tuesday began preliminary pumping of gas from a lucrative field in the Mediterranean Sea to its coastline rig, just days before it is to sign a a major pipeline deal with Greece and Cyprus.

The start of the so-called “flushing process” took place after repeated delays due to legal challenges from wary Israeli residents who remain skeptical of the grandiose project that Israel vows will wean it off coal and revolutionize the economy by turning the country from an energy importer to an unlikely exporter.

Israel’s focus on its newfound gas reserves over the past decade has faced stiff domestic criticism from environmental and social welfare activists. They say the government has been too generous toward the gas tycoons behind the exploration, and that the massive investment has steered resources away from focusing on renewable energy sources.

More recently, local activists have been urging Israel’s Delek Drilling and its U.S. partner, Noble Energy, to move a proposed shoreline treatment gas rig farther out to sea. The activists fear what they call the catastrophic consequences of spreading toxic water and air pollution toward their homes.

Oil prices set for biggest yearly rise since 2016 - Reuters

Oil prices set for biggest yearly rise since 2016 - Reuters:

Oil rose on the last trading day of the decade on Tuesday and was on track for monthly and annual gains, supported by a thaw in the prolonged U.S.-China trade row and Middle East unrest.

Brent crude was up 11 cents at $66.78 a barrel by 1143 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 6 cents at $61.74 per barrel.

The volume of trade remained low as many market participants were away for year-end holidays.

Brent has gained about 24% in 2019 and WTI has risen 35%. Both benchmarks are set for their biggest yearly gains in three years, backed by a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks and output cuts pledged by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.


#Saudi economy contracts 0.46% in third quarter as oil output slumps - Reuters

Saudi economy contracts 0.46% in third quarter as oil output slumps - Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 0.46% in the third quarter from a year earlier, hit by a drop in oil output as the de facto leader of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut production, government data showed on Tuesday.

Oil sector output declined 6.43%, but non-oil output grew 4.33%, led by private sector activity, the data from the top world crude exporter’s General Authority of Statistics said.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy contracted by 0.19% in the third quarter on a quarterly basis.

The data came after the Saudi government in its budget cut its forecast for economic growth to 0.4% in 2019 from 0.9%, with growth hit by lower oil prices and crude production cuts agreed by OPEC nations and producers outside the exporting group.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Banks aid #Saudi index, most of Gulf moves little - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Banks aid Saudi index, most of Gulf moves little - Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s stock market rose in early trading on Tuesday, supported by its financial shares, while other major Gulf bourses were little changed with many investors away for year-end holidays.

The kingdom’s main index added 0.3%, buoyed by a 0.3% rise in Al Rajhi Bank and a 1.2% gain in Banque Saudi Fransi.

On Monday, the latter raised its dividend for the second half to 1 riyal ($0.3199) per share.

State-owned Saudi Aramco inched up 0.1%.

Zain Sauid dropped 1.2%, snapping three straight days of gains, a day after ending agreement to sell and leaseback its towers infrastructure to IHS.