Not just games - Riyadh Bureau ht @ahmed

Not just games - Riyadh Bureau:

I was barely six months old when Saudi Arabia’s national football team won the Asian Cup for the first time in 1984 after defeating China in the final that was played in Singapore. Four years later, Saudi Arabia retained the title in Doha as they overcame South Korea in a penalty shootout.

Even though I was too young to remember myself, I have such fond memories of these victories because my late father kept a cassette video tape by famous Kuwaiti commentator Khalid al-Harban who made a documentary film on the Saudi back-to-back continental football glory entitled “Masters of Asia.”

Saudi Arabia announced itself as a major football force, qualifying for the World Cup for the first time in 1994 and winning the Asian Cup for a third time in 1996. That marked the peak of a football generation that remains unmatched as the kingdom’s sports found itself increasingly mired in chaos and corruption in the following years.

Meanwhile, the kingdom’s Gulf neighbours have decided to increase their investment in sports to put themselves on the international map. Knowing they lack the required talent pool to compete due to their small native populations, they instead focused on building infrastructure and hosting international tournaments as Saudi Arabia stagnated.

#Lebanon gives Lazard bankers a brainteaser

Here’s a brainteaser for investment-banking job candidates. How can Lebanon – a country with debt running around 150% of its roughly $60 billion GDP, massive deficits and under $30 billion in foreign reserves – achieve financial stability? Lazard, the country’s newly approved adviser, will earn its fees if it can solve this puzzle.

Lebanon has characteristics that make it especially hard to restructure debt without imperiling local banks or increasing political instability. The issue is coming to a head, too, with a $1.2 billion payment on foreign-currency debt due on March 9.

Restructuring Lebanon’s foreign-currency-denominated debt alone – which foreigners are more apt to hold – wouldn’t be enough. Only about 40% of the country’s nearly $90 billion debt stock is in hard currency. That means even if creditors took a 60% haircut, the debt-to-GDP ratio would still be around 120%, according to Fitch Ratings. That’s unsustainable.

Oil Plummets in Worst Week Since 2008 Amid Coronavirus Panic - Bloomberg

Oil Plummets in Worst Week Since 2008 Amid Coronavirus Panic - Bloomberg:

Oil had it worst week since the financial crisis as panic over the coronavirus pandemic battered global markets.

Futures in New York fell 16% this week, marking the biggest weekly drop since December 2008. The viral outbeak showed no signs of relenting, with the World Health Organization raising global risk to “very high” from “high.” The collapse of financial markets prompted U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to assure investors that the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates to mitigate the virus’ threat to economic activity.

“A month ago the concern was only China,” said Pavel Molchanov, energy research analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc. “This meltdown is a fear of a global pandemic. The risk is we will see the same disruptions we saw in Asia, from travel restrictions to quarantines, materialize all over the world.”

Oil prices have tumbled almost 27% this year on concerns the coronavirus outbreak will dent crude demand. OPEC and its allies have signaled the coalition could reach an agreement to stem the rout before meeting in Vienna next week. Saudi Arabia is reportedly pushing for collective OPEC+ production cuts of an additional 1 million barrels a day, of which it would bear the brunt.

Humbled Saudis May Yet Clinch OPEC+ Deal as Virus Crisis Worsens - Bloomberg

Humbled Saudis May Yet Clinch OPEC+ Deal as Virus Crisis Worsens - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia has so far been thwarted by Russia in its push to shore up oil markets against the coronavirus. But when they meet next week, the humbled kingdom may yet clinch victory.

Ever since it became clear the outbreak was savaging energy demand in China -- and oil prices everywhere -- Riyadh has been pushing for swift production cuts to compensate. Russia, the most important partner in the producers’ coalition, rebuffed those entreaties, underscoring the dominant role that President Vladimir Putin has played since forging an alliance with the Saudis three years ago.

“They’re sitting in very different places -- clearly, Putin has an advantage,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. “The fact is that Russia has a budget that can be balanced at less than $50 a barrel, and the Saudis don’t.”

That gives Moscow the upper hand when the countries sit down to debate a joint policy on March 5 to 6. But while slumping prices put the kingdom and its energy minister under tremendous pressure, growing signs that the virus imperils the global economy may ultimately work in Riyadh’s favor.

Aramco secures unconditional EU okay for $69 billion SABIC deal - Reuters

Aramco secures unconditional EU okay for $69 billion SABIC deal - Reuters:

World No. 1 oil producer Saudi Aramco has gained unconditional EU antitrust approval for its $69 billion bid for a 70% stake in petrochemicals group Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC), according to an EU filing.

Aramco announced the deal in March last year, a move key to its diversification into refining and petrochemicals.

The European Commission cleared the deal on Thursday, a filing on its site showed. Reuters reported on Feb. 21 that the deal was heading for unconditional EU clearance.

'Big Dog' and the 'omnipotent sheikh' - how #Qatar saved Barclays - Reuters

'Big Dog' and the 'omnipotent sheikh' - how Qatar saved Barclays - Reuters:

When Roger Jenkins was asked to help Barclays avoid a state bailout at the height of the financial crisis in 2008, he was expecting a bonus not a prosecution for his efforts.

More than a decade later, Jenkins and former Barclays colleagues Richard Boath and Tom Kalaris, were unanimously acquitted by a jury on Friday in a case that revealed how the British banking giant secured a 4 billion pound ($5.2 billion) investment from Qatar.

With its survival at risk, Barclays was relying on Jenkins’ persuasiveness and personal relationship with Qatar’s then prime minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani.

But the tiny emirate, which has punched above its weight for years after the discovery of oil and gas, was playing hardball. Barclays’ response was to pursue a deal which Jenkins conceded during his trial was optically “close to the line”.