Wednesday 9 December 2020

Oil steadies despite massive build in U.S. crude stocks | Reuters

Oil steadies despite massive build in U.S. crude stocks | Reuters

Oil prices settled little changed on Wednesday as investors weighed an unexpected jump in U.S. crude stockpiles against optimism that a fast rollout of a coronavirus vaccine would fuel a recovery in global oil demand.

Prices fell 1% early in the session as data showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 15.2 million barrels to 503.2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.4 million-barrel drop. [EIA/S]

U.S. net imports of crude oil rose by 2.7 million barrels per day last week, the biggest increase on record, as exports plunged. [EIA/S]

However, the advent of mass inoculations in the United Kingdom and the prospect of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approving a coronavirus vaccine in the United States pushed markets higher following the report.

Brent crude rose 2 cents to settle at $48.86 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 8 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $45.52 a barrel.

“The market is definitely in a state of shock, but overall this is looking like a fluke report and the market can detect brighter days ahead,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

#UAE Taps Occidental to Boost Oil Capacity as OPEC Cuts Rankle - Bloomberg

UAE Taps Occidental to Boost Oil Capacity as OPEC Cuts Rankle - Bloomberg

The United Arab Emirates awarded oil-exploration rights to Occidental Petroleum Corp., moving quickly to expand output capacity just a week after the country clashed with its OPEC partners over production limits.

Government-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. picked Occidental to explore for oil and natural gas at a block in the desert along the UAE’s border with Oman, Adnoc said Wednesday in a statement. The block is adjacent to an exploration area that Adnoc awarded to Occidental last year.

Houston-based Occidental is set to invest as much as $140 million in the new area, known as Onshore Block 5, during the exploration phase, the duration of which wasn’t disclosed.

Abu Dhabi is the UAE’s capital and largest emirate, and its fields produce almost all of the country’s oil. The Supreme Petroleum Council, which sets Abu Dhabi’s energy policy, last month approved a $122 billion budget to help Adnoc boost production capacity by a fourth to 5 million barrels a day by 2030.

That target highlights the UAE’s unhappiness with output limits imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers like Russia as the cartel tries to prop up oil markets. The so-called OPEC+ alliance has capped the UAE’s output at roughly 2.6 million barrels a day until the end of the year. The group agreed last week to raise collective supply by 500,000 barrels a day in January, allowing the UAE -- OPEC’s third-largest producer -- a slight increase. Even so, the UAE has made clear that it chafes at its quota, going so far as to signal last month that it might pull out of OPEC.

#UAE, #Dubai News: Gulf Expat Exodus to Ebb With Economic Rebound in #Qatar, #Saudi - Bloomberg

UAE, Dubai News: Gulf Expat Exodus to Ebb With Economic Rebound in Qatar, Saudi - Bloomberg

Expats might not flee the Gulf in the numbers predicted earlier as economies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar fare better than expected during the pandemic, according to Oxford Economics.

“The impact on jobs of the declines in non-oil gross domestic product has been smaller than anticipated,” Scott Livermore, chief economist for the region, wrote in a report Wednesday. “Travel restrictions and the use of furlough or unpaid leave have weakened the link between expats losing their jobs and returning to their home country.”


The six nations comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman -- are heavily dependent on foreign workers in sectors as diverse as construction and finance.

But as economies slowed and then contracted during the global health emergency, many expats whose residency visas were linked to jobs that had disappeared were forced to head home.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Major markets firm on higher oil prices; #Saudi leads gains | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Major markets firm on higher oil prices; Saudi leads gains | Nasdaq

Most Gulf stock markets strengthened on Wednesday, in tandem with global shares, as progress on the U.S. fiscal stimulus front and positive news about COVID-19 vaccines lifted investor sentiment.

U.S. lawmakers continued to negotiate over additional stimulus to help offset the economic impact of the pandemic while pursuing a stopgap government-funding bill.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS rose 0.3% to a record high 635.65.

Oil prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf markets, gained as upbeat vaccine news spurred investor hopes for a recovery in fuel demand. O/R

Brent crude LCOc1 rose 27 cents, or 0.6%, to $49.11 a barrel by 1218 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 climbed 22 cents, up 0.5%.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .ADI closed 0.6% higher, with Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE gaining 0.5% and petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries 2010.SE jumping 1.2%.

Dubai's main share index .DFMGI finished 0.3% higher for a fifth straight session.

Top lender Emirates NBD ENBD.DU gained 1.4% and was the top gainer on the main index, while sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank DISB.DU added 0.4%.

The Abu Dhabi index .ADI also ended 0.3% higher, buoyed by a 0.5% increase in the country's largest lender, First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates' ambassador to Washington said there were "seeds of progress" in resolving a long-running Gulf Arab row and a commitment to "tone things down" as the parties work for a solution to end the rift with neighbouring Qatar.

The Qatari index .QSI edged down 0.1%, hurt by a 1.8% drop in shares of Industries Qatar IQCD.QA.

Billions in the bank, yet #Kuwait is squeezed for cash | Financial Times

Billions in the bank, yet Kuwait is squeezed for cash | Financial Times

A Kuwaiti woman casts her vote. As pressure builds on public services, many Kuwaitis have ratcheted up rhetoric against expatriates © Noufal Ibrahim/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock


When Kuwait’s prime minister returns to office in the coming weeks, he faces an apparent paradox: the Gulf state with a $550bn sovereign wealth fund is running short on cash to pay ballooning public sector salaries. 

Oil accounts for 90 per cent of its revenue, but slumping prices have hit the western ally’s income hard, putting its forecast deficit close to 40 per cent of GDP, higher than it was in the 1990s, during the financially perilous aftermath of the first Gulf war when Iraq invaded Kuwait. 

While other Gulf states have turned to global debt markets to fund themselves through the pandemic, Kuwait is hamstrung by parliament’s refusal to renew a debt law that elapsed in 2017. Any attempt to tap into the country’s large sovereign wealth fund is also opposed by lawmakers as it would undermine its function as a nest egg for future generations. 

Long criticised for failing to prepare for a post-oil future even as it built one of the world’s largest wealth funds, the crisis in Kuwait illustrates how even wealthy Gulf states have been rocked by coronavirus and plunging oil prices. 

The economic crisis has forced a political reckoning — early December elections have delivered a strong showing for opposition and younger candidates, with 31 new lawmakers in the 50-member parliament. Emir Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who took the reins in September following the death of his brother, a revered global diplomat, this week reappointed the prime minister, Sheikh Sabah al-Khaled al-Sabah, to form a new cabinet.

#SaudiArabia: Time to face the music | Saudi Arabia | Al Jazeera

Saudi Arabia: Time to face the music | Saudi Arabia | Al Jazeera

Participants at a regional security conference in Manama over the weekend must have been surprised to see former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki Al-Faisal shoot in all directions, considering that no Saudi is allowed to shoot from the hip nowadays – not even a prince.

Indeed, some may have been quite indignant when the seasoned former ambassador to the United Kingdom and the United States, lectured neighbouring Oman on foreign interference and dubbed Israel a “Western colonising” power that incarcerates Palestinians in concentration camps.

Regardless of whether Prince Turki was wrong on Oman or right on Israel, the tone and timing of his rebuke provoked the foreign ministers of Oman and Israel who were in attendance and invoked some question and exclamation marks about the coherence and consistency of Saudi foreign policy.

After all, only a week earlier, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu along with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the new Red Sea coastal city of Neom.

#SaudiArabia Is in No Rush to Recognize Israel - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Is in No Rush to Recognize Israel - Bloomberg

Weeks of fevered speculation that Saudi Arabia would soon begin the “normalization” of relations with Israel, in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, were doused over the weekend, when a senior Saudi prince lit into the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “the last of the Western colonizing powers in the Middle East.”

Prince Turki Al-Faisal, the kingdom’s former intelligence chief, waved off the other Israeli-Arab diplomatic breakthroughs: “You cannot treat an open wound with palliatives and painkillers,” he said at a security conference in neighboring Bahrain. He was referring to the condition of Palestinians, who were being “incarcerated in concentration camps under the flimsiest of security accusations — young and old, women and men, who are rotting there without recourse to justice.” Turki accused Israel of “demolishing [Palestinian] homes as they wish and they assassinate whomever they want.”

His language was a blunt contrast with the softer tone that Saudi Arabia has adopted toward Israel in recent months, and it caught off guard the Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, who was participating in the conference via video link. Ashkenazi expressed “regret” at Turki’s comments. “I don’t believe that they reflect the spirit and the changes taking place in the Middle East,” he said.

Perhaps. Israelis may take reassurance from Turki’s assertion that he was speaking in his personal capacity, rather than as an official representative of the kingdom. But when the official representative, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, had his turn to speak, he did not walk back Turki’s argument that the Saudis would only normalize relations with Israel after Palestinian aspirations were met. “We think Israel will take its place in the region,” said Prince Faisal. “But in order for that to happen and for that to be sustainable, we do need the Palestinians to get their state and we do need to settle that situation.”

Mideast fiscal regimes risk social backlash next year - Fitch | Reuters

Mideast fiscal regimes risk social backlash next year - Fitch | Reuters

Middle East countries that have adopted painful fiscal measures to contain the impact of the coronavirus crisis on their finances risk political and social backlash next year in the absence of economic improvements, ratings agency Fitch said.

After a severe contraction this year, most economies in the region are expected to bounce back to growth as oil prices recover and stimulus spending for the COVID-19 pandemic eases.

However, “lower-for-longer oil prices and other potential consequences of the pandemic raise questions about the long-term social and economic models of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),” Fitch said in a report this week.

“Painful fiscal adjustments and the economic dislocation from coronavirus-containment measures risk a social and political backlash in 2021 in the absence of economic opportunities and improved living standards to satisfy still rapidly growing, young and under-employed populations,” it said.

Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy and the world’s biggest oil exporter, tripled a value-added tax this year to 15% to offset the blow to its finances of lower oil prices.

Stable 2021 outlook for GCC Islamic banks, except for those in #SaudiArabia - Fitch | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Stable 2021 outlook for GCC Islamic banks, except for those in Saudi Arabia - Fitch | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Islamic banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have a stable outlook for 2021 with a modest economic recovery expected, except for in Saudi Arabia, where fiscal and balance sheet concerns have been accelerated by COVID-19.

Fitch Ratings said there would be continued asset-quality and profitability pressures for Islamic banks across the GCC, but capital buffers and liquidity is expected to remain stable and adequate for the risks.

However, the outlook is negative for Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia.

“The Negative Outlook on the Saudi sovereign and pressures on the Saudi operating environment result in Negative Outlooks on the Saudi Islamic banks,” said the Fitch report, which focuses on the 2021 outlook for GCC Islamic banks.

“This reflects the continued weakening of the sovereign's fiscal and external balance sheets, which has been accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic and lower oil prices despite the government's strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.

Oil inches higher as vaccine hopes outweigh build in U.S. stockpiles | Reuters

Oil inches higher as vaccine hopes outweigh build in U.S. stockpiles | Reuters

Oil prices inched higher on Wednesday, paring earlier losses, as positive news on COVID-19 vaccines lifted investor hopes for a recovery in fuel demand, outweighing concerns over an unexpected jump in U.S. oil inventories last week.

Brent crude futures rose 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $48.95 a barrel by 0746 GMT, having gained 5 cents the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $45.69, after shedding 16 cents on Tuesday.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks rose sharply last week, with crude stocks jumping by 1.14 million barrels, against analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll for a draw of 1.42 million barrels.

Official weekly oil data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due on Wednesday.

“The build in U.S. crude inventories raised a sense of caution among investors and prompted them to unwind long positions ahead of the EIA data in early trade,” said Chiyoki Chen, chief analyst at Sunward Trading.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most markets gain as financials rise; #Qatar eases | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most markets gain as financials rise; Qatar eases | Nasdaq

Most Gulf stock markets rose in early trade on Wednesday, supported by gains in financials, while petrochemical firm Industries Qatar dragged down Qatari stocks.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .ADI rose 0.4%, with Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE gaining 0.5% and petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries 2010.SE up 0.7%.

Oil giant Saudi Aramco 2222.SE and energy services company Baker Hughes BKR.N formed a 50/50 joint venture, Novel, to develop a broad range of non-metallic products for multiple applications in the energy sector.

However, Aramco was flat in early trade.

Dubai's main share index .DFMGI gained 0.8%, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties EMAR.DU rising 1.7%, while sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank DISB.DU traded 0.8% higher.

In Abu Dhabi, the index .ADI added 0.3%, helped by a 0.3% increase in the country's largest lender, First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates appreciated efforts by Kuwait and the United States to strengthen Gulf Arab unity, a senior Emirati official said on Tuesday in a reference to a row with Qatar that Washington says hampers a united Gulf front against Iran.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia said last Friday that progress had been made towards resolving the dispute that has seen Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt sever diplomatic, trade and travel ties with Qatar since mid-2017.

The Qatari index .QSI, however, fell 0.1%, hurt by a 1.3% drop in Industries Qatar IQCD.QA.