As revolutions and unrest sweep the Arab world, commentary centres on a struggle for freedom and political change. These elements do come into play, but what lies at the core of these revolutions is a chronic and widening deficit of economic opportunity, combined with the demographic time-bomb of an exploding youth population. The stark statistic is that 100 million jobs need to be created in the Arab world in the next two decades alone - more than was created in the whole of the last century.
Past attempts at economic reform in many of these countries achieved certain success in terms of headline economic growth, but incomplete reforms and corruption led to only a small minority feeling the benefits. This combined with persistent inflation, especially with food prices rising 30 per cent last year, to create worsening inequality. In addition, education systems have failed to provide the skills needed by the evolving job market. Reform in all these areas is still needed.
The sad reality is that the basic causes that drove the revolutionaries in all these countries - corruption, economic stagnation and lack of job opportunities - are likely to get much worse in the short term. Investment has frozen, economic growth is slowing and unemployment will see a sharp rise.
