Thursday 10 March 2022

#Dubai a favorite destination as some Moscow-based bankers beat path to exit | Reuters

Dubai a favorite destination as some Moscow-based bankers beat path to exit | Reuters

In the scramble by some bankers and financial industry executives to leave Moscow, Dubai is turning out to be a favorite location to land.

Some bankers at Moscow offices of financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Rothschild & Co and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) have either left or are considering moving, as operating in Russia becomes increasingly difficult, several sources familiar with the matter said.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday became the first major Wall Street bank to say it was exiting the country following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, while Citigroup Inc (C.N) said on Wednesday it was limiting operations. read more

Employees in Russia worry that they could get caught in the middle of rising tensions between Moscow and the West, sources said.

It was unclear exactly how many bankers have left Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and how long they might stay abroad.

Oil settles down again; Russia to fulfil supply contracts | Reuters

Oil settles down again; Russia to fulfil supply contracts | Reuters

Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after a volatile session, a day after its biggest daily dive in two years, as Russia pledged to fulfil contractual obligations and some traders said supply disruption concerns were overdone.

Since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, oil markets have been the most volatile in two years. On Wednesday, global benchmark Brent crude posted its biggest daily decline since April, 2020. Two days earlier, it hit a 14-year high at over $139 a barrel.

Brent futures fell $1.81, or 1.6%, to settle at $109.33 a barrel after gaining as much as 6.5% earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.68, or 2.5%, to settle at $106.02 a barrel, giving up over 5.7% of intraday gains.

"I think some of the 'war angst' is coming out of the market," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. "We rejected $130 twice this week. People are beginning to ask if there really is too much of a supply problem. There's still plenty of Russian supply," he said.

Analysis: You still need us, #UAE tells U.S. as it flexes Gulf oil muscles | Reuters

Analysis: You still need us, UAE tells U.S. as it flexes Gulf oil muscles | Reuters

By single-handedly knocking 13% off rocketing oil prices on one day this week, the United Arab Emirates demonstrated the power Gulf producers wield in the market and sent a wake-up call to Washington to pay closer attention to its longtime allies.

OPEC heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which both bear grudges against Washington, have snubbed U.S. pleas to use their spare output capacity to tame rampant crude prices which threaten global recession after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Wednesday's sharp oil price fall, the biggest one-day drop in almost two years, followed comments by the UAE ambassador to Washington, who said his country supported pumping more oil.

Prices rebounded when the UAE energy minister contradicted him and said the Gulf state stuck by an output pact agreed with OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia. read more

Oil Recovers With ‘Panic-Stricken’ Market Gripped by Wild Swings - Bloomberg

Oil Recovers With ‘Panic-Stricken’ Market Gripped by Wild Swings - Bloomberg

PRICES
  • West Texas Intermediate for April rose 4.8% to $113.93 a barrel at 9:05 a.m. in New York.
  • Brent for May settlement gained 6.1% to $117.23.



Brent crude rebounded after slumping the most in almost two years as the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to rattle what one analyst called a “panic-stricken” market.

Futures in London topped $118, while those in New York rose near $115 a barrel. Markets have been panicky since war broke out, seeing sharp intraday swings on headlines from Ukraine and OPEC+ members. On Thursday, the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey, but failed to make any progress in halting the war.

That follows the first signs of disunity in OPEC+ after the United Arab Emirates called on the group Wednesday to boost output faster than planned. The nation’s energy minister appeared to temper that message a few hours later. OPEC+, which counts Russia as a key member, has resisted calls from consumers to pump more, arguing that the surge in prices is driven by geopolitical tensions rather than a supply shortage.

“OPEC+ will have to jump through many hoops to agree to deviate from its current road map,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of Singapore-based Vanda Insights, describing the market as “panic-stricken.”

Peninsula Real Estate Exploring $1 Billion Listing in London - Bloomberg

Peninsula Real Estate Exploring $1 Billion Listing in London - Bloomberg

Peninsula Real Estate is looking to list a vehicle on the London Stock Exchange, the first company with significant assets in the United Arab Emirates seeking a U.K. listing since 2019.

The proposed real estate investment trust will hold commercial properties in the Gulf region, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the information is private. The portfolio’s market value could reach around $1 billion, the people said.

The company, which has some staff in Dubai, has appointed investment bank Evercore Inc. and law firm Clifford Chance as advisers, the people said. No final decision has been made and the company may decide not to proceed depending on market circumstances.

Representatives for Peninsula and Evercore declined to comment. Clifford Chance didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Russia-Ukraine War Pushes Open Interest Across Oil Futures Contracts to 6-yr Low - Bloomberg

Russia-Ukraine War Pushes Open Interest Across Oil Futures Contracts to 6-yr Low - Bloomberg


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has catapulted the oil market into one of the most tumultuous periods it has ever seen -- and pushed some investors to the sidelines.

In two of the four trading sessions this week, Brent crude futures have swung by the most on record -- with intraday swings eclipsing $20 a barrel. In normal times, even a $5 move would see traders balk, and the current volatility is having precisely that effect.

The stress is showing up in gauges across the market. Open interest in the main oil contracts has plunged to a six-year low in recent days as traders retreat from risk, Volatility has rocketed, and exchanges have been boosting margins, effectively raising the cost of buying and selling.

With liquidity sapped, it could leave the oil market even more exposed to wild trading days, with headlines from Ukraine and OPEC+ members causing huge swings in a matter of minutes. That’s all in the context of a market that’s generally trading around some of the highest levels in years as governments and consumers around the world grapple with surging inflation.

#Saudi’s MbS will eventually take Biden’s call | Reuters

Saudi’s MbS will eventually take Biden’s call | Reuters

Mohammed bin Salman isn’t taking Joe Biden’s calls. Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader has ignored pleas from the American president to pump more oil after the United States and Britain boycotted Russian output, the Wall Street Journal reported. That’s unlikely to last.

Crude prices have spiked 20% since Russia invaded Ukraine last month. That’s partly due to sanctions as well as a broader wariness from oil buyers. Though the United States produced 11.2 million daily barrels of crude oil in 2021, it will struggle to fully replace the more than 4 million barrels a day previously exported by Russia. Saudi, which in 2021 pumped 9.1 million daily barrels, has the capacity to help.

Along with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other drillers including Russia, Saudi has scaled back production since the global pandemic pushed Brent crude as low as $20 a barrel in April 2020. The country has scope to produce 12.2 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency reckons. Throw in the United Arab Emirates and spare capacity is theoretically more than 3 million barrels a day. That could make a big difference to the market: the suggestion that the UAE might pump more sent oil prices down 13% to $111 a barrel on Wednesday.

MbS has an incentive to keep Biden on hold. It’s less than a year since the U.S. president publicly blamed the crown prince for the October 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and prioritized communication with his father, King Salman. The Saudi government budget breaks even with oil prices at $67 a barrel, according to S&P Global, so the price spike provides a big fiscal boost. Expensive oil has also pushed Saudi Aramco’s (2222.SE) market capitalization above $2 trillion, fueling speculation that the state-controlled oil giant could sell shares at a better valuation than its underwhelming 2019 initial public offering.

Still, MbS’s leverage has limits. His “Vision 2030” ambitions to diversify the country away from oil depend on inflows of Western capital and labor. Executives from his planned mega-city of Neom are due to meet bankers and investors in New York next month, Bloomberg reported. The crown prince could decide to distance Saudi from the United States, stay neutral on Russia and cozy up to China instead. But it’s more likely that he will teach Biden a lesson, before pumping more oil.

Gulf bourses end mixed, #Saudi Aramco sees worst day in nearly 2 yrs | Reuters

Gulf bourses end mixed, Saudi Aramco sees worst day in nearly 2 yrs | Reuters


Major Gulf bourses closed mixed on Thursday, while global shares fell as analysts warned of further pain for stocks even after planned diplomatic talks between Moscow and Kyiv had lent momentum to riskier bets.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose from a sharp drop in the previous session after the United Arab Emirates backtracked on statements saying the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies might increase output to help to plug the gap in exports from Russia.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Twitter his country was committed to the agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia to ramp up oil supply by only 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) monthly after sharp cuts in 2020. read more

"The Abu Dhabi stock market rebounded from yesterday's fall as oil markets stabilized while OPEC members reiterated their unity," said Eman AlAyyaf, CEO of EA Trading.

Price corrections were seen in Dubai and Saudi Arabia as investors secured gains, AlAyyaf added.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark share index (.TASI) ended 0.4% lower, its second consecutive session of losses.

State-run oil explorer Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) fell 5.1%, its biggest fall since May 2020.

Abu Dhabi's main index (.FTFADGI) closed 0.9% higher. The index had plunged 2.2% in the previous session, its biggest daily percentage loss since Dec. 20.

Dubai's main stock index (.DFMGI) ended flat, as gains in the real estate sector were outweighed by losses in financial stocks.

Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU) was down 2.%, while Dubai Financial Market (DFM.DU) dropped 3%.

The Qatari index (.QSI) was flat, with gains in financials offset by losses in industrials.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) rose 0.4%.

#UAE sows confusion in oil market as it faces lower Russian supply | Reuters

UAE sows confusion in oil market as it faces lower Russian supply | Reuters

Confusing messages from No. 3 OPEC producer the United Arab Emirates about whether it supported higher output or not stoked volatility in the oil market as consuming nations sought extra crude on Thursday to replace dwindling Russian supplies.

The UAE's ambassador to Washington, Yousuf Al Otaiba, said on Wednesday in a statement posted by the embassy on Twitter that Abu Dhabi favoured an increase in oil production and would encourage OPEC to consider higher output.

But a UAE source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday the Gulf state would not act on its own to raise production and remained committed to OPEC+ policy.

OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, has a deal to gradually raise output each month by 400,000 barrels per day. The group has refused act more quickly even as prices have rocketed higher because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Oil bounces as tight supply gives high floor to prices | Reuters

Oil bounces as tight supply gives high floor to prices | Reuters

Oil prices bounced on Thursday from a sharp drop in the previous session after the United Arab Emirates backtracked on statements saying that OPEC and its allies might increase output to help to plug the gap in exports from Russia.

In a volatile market, Brent crude futures were up $5.43, or 4.9%, at $116.57 a barrel by 1042 GMT after trading in an $8 range. The benchmark contract slumped 13% in the previous session in its biggest daily drop in percentage terms for about two years.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $4.49, or 4.1%, at $113.19 after trading in a $7 range. The contract had tumbled 12% in the previous session in the biggest daily decline since November.

PVM oil market analyst Tamas Varga called Wednesday's slump a "temporary correction".

Uncertainty over where and when supply will come from to replace crude from Russia has led to wide-ranging forecasts for oil prices up to $200 a barrel.

Analysis: Russian risk recalibration a wake-up call for investors | Reuters

Analysis: Russian risk recalibration a wake-up call for investors | Reuters

For funds undeterred in their investment choices by the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi or China's treatment of the Uyghurs, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is proving a wake-up call.

Buying into companies on the basis of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors is one of the hottest trends in the fund management industry, attracting investments totalling more than $35 trillion by the start of 2020.

But for money managers from Boston to London the focus has largely been on companies, with governance risk largely ignored in decisions over whether to invest in a country itself.

China has denied allegations of abuses against the Uyghurs in southern Xinjiang. Saudi Arabia's government has said Khashoggi's killing was committed by a rogue group.

Now, as western banks and companies revisit hundreds of billions of dollars worth of exposure to Russia, more than half a dozen fund managers interviewed by Reuters said the Ukraine crisis was causing them to rethink how they assign country risk.

Oligarchs Put #Dubai in Spotlight as World Sanctions #Russia Over Ukraine War - Bloomberg

Oligarchs Put Dubai in Spotlight as World Sanctions Russia Over Ukraine War - Bloomberg

The Gupta brothers stand accused of pillaging billions of dollars from South Africa. Isabel dos Santos is sought by Angolan authorities on suspicion of embezzling state funds. Bulgarian prosecutors say gambling tycoon Vasil Bozhkov is the leader of an organized crime group.

All of them are wanted at home to face allegations they deny, and all have something else in common: In recent years, they found sanctuary in Dubai, a destination for some of the world’s wealthiest exiles.

The Gulf emirate catapulted itself from sleepy trade backwater to glitzy playground for the rich over the past 40 years. But Dubai’s status as a global financial hub also has a darker side, and one that is coming under increasing scrutiny just as international allies sanction some Russian assets after the invasion of Ukraine.

While the United Arab Emirates has long been an investment destination for wealthy Russians, it’s now more appealing because it’s one of the countries that’s maintaining relations with their country. The flow of Russian money into the UAE through cash transfers and crypto wallets picked up as tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated, people with direct knowledge of the matter said. That has accelerated over the past two weeks, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private transactions.

That comes as the UAE is under pressure to do more about tracking the money that enters the country. The Financial Action Task Force, a Paris-based organization set up by the G7 countries to combat money laundering, on March 4 put the UAE on its “gray list” of jurisdictions that don’t do enough to uncover illicit funds. The FATF warned two years ago it may take action, yet the decision resonates even more now.

#Saudi Al-Dawaa to list on TASI early next week after $500mln IPO

Saudi Al-Dawaa to list on TASI early next week after $500mln IPO

Al-Dawaa Medical Services Co. is the latest in joining the ongoing listing spree on Saudi stock exchange.

The pharmacy chain operator will list on Saudi Arabia’s main index TASI on March 14, a bourse filing showed.

Ahead of listing, the Saudi-based firm collected SR1.9 billion ($500 million) from an IPO that was priced at the end of an indicative range after seeing strong investor demand.

The company offered 25.5 million shares, representing 30 percent of capital.

GIB Capital was the financial advisor, lead manager, book-runner, and underwriter of the offering.

Fearing West's wrath, Russia's rich look to stash wealth in #Dubai | Reuters

Fearing West's wrath, Russia's rich look to stash wealth in Dubai | Reuters

Rich Russians are trying to shift some of their wealth from Europe to Dubai to shield assets from a tightening wave of Western sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, financial and legal sources said.

Dubai, the Gulf's freewheeling financial and business hub, has long been a magnet for the globe's ultra-rich and the United Arab Emirates' refusal to take sides between Western allies and Moscow has signalled to Russians that their money is safe there.

The UAE, which over the years has deepened its ties with Russia, has not matched sanctions imposed by Western nations and its central bank has so far not issued guidance regarding Western sanctions.

In many cases, wealthy Russians are seeking to shift funds to Dubai that are now in Switzerland or London - which have both sanctioned Russian individuals and organisations, a senior banker at a large Swiss private bank and a lawyer familiar with the matter said.

The lawyer, who is based in Dubai, said his firm had received inquiries from Russian entities on how quickly they could move "very significant funds" worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the Gulf Arab state.

"The UAE is a nice medium - a few hours away by flight and doesn't have a regulator completely in cahoots with Western regulators," an investment management professional said.

#UAE will not act on its own to raise oil output -source | Reuters

UAE will not act on its own to raise oil output -source | Reuters

The United Arab Emirates will not act on its own to raise oil output, a UAE source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

The Gulf producer remains committed to the OPEC+ alliance and only its energy ministry is responsible for oil policy, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The UAE's ambassador to Washington, Yousuf Al Otaiba, had said in a statement the embassy posted on Twitter that Abu Dhabi favoured an increase in oil production and would encourage OPEC to consider higher output.

But in a later statement, Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said the country believed in the value OPEC+ brought to the market.

Until now, OPEC+ has resisted calls from the United States and allies to ramp up output, even as oil prices surge to more than $120 a barrel.

After Otaiba's comments, global oil prices on Wednesday plunged the most since the early days of the pandemic nearly two years ago. read more

Markets mixed, #AbuDhabi jumps nearly 1% | Reuters

Markets mixed, Abu Dhabi jumps nearly 1% | Reuters

Major Gulf bourses traded mixed on Thursday, with Abu Dhabi's index up nearly 1% after a big plunge in the previous session, while global stocks rose on planned Russia-Ukraine talks.

Asian shares surged, tracking Wall Street's gains as planned diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine buoyed risk-on sentiment, although analysts warned the rally could be susceptible to a sharp reversal.

Oil prices also regained some footing, having fallen more than 12% in the previous session, as the market contemplated whether major producers would boost supply to help plug the gap in output from Russia due to sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates is not likely to act on its own to raise oil output, a UAE source familiar with the matter told Reuters. read more

Abu Dhabi's main index (.FTFADGI) gained as much as 0.9%. The index had plunged 2.2% in the previous session, its biggest daily percentage loss since Dec. 20.

Dubai's main stock index (.DFMGI) was down 0.5%, weighed by financial and communication services stocks.

Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU) was down 3.6%, while Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company (DU.DU) fell 0.5%.

The Qatari index (.QSI) was flat, with gains in financials offset by losses in industrials.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark share index (.TASI) was flat.

State-run oil explorer Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) was down 1.6%.