Sunday 5 January 2020

Oil Jumps Near $70 as U.S. Says Iran May Strike Saudi Again - Bloomberg

Oil Jumps Near $70 as U.S. Says Iran May Strike Saudi Again - Bloomberg:

Oil’s wild ride continued as the U.S. warned Iran may attack Saudi Arabia again following the American assassination of one of the Islamic Republic’s most powerful generals.

Crude futures jumped for a second day, rising to just shy of $70 a barrel in London, as the U.S. State Department said there’s “heightened risk” of missile attacks near military bases and energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, raising the prospect of disruptions in the world’s most important oil-producing region.

The warning followed a weekend of bellicose rhetoric. President Donald Trump said he was prepared to strike “in a disproportionate manner” and attack more than 50 Iranian sites if Tehran retaliates against the killing of Qassem Soleimani, while the Middle East nation said it has to “settle a score with the U.S.”

Gulf States Move to Prevent Escalation After Soleimani’s Killing - Bloomberg

Gulf States Move to Prevent Escalation After Soleimani’s Killing - Bloomberg:

Gulf Arab states, potential targets for retaliation after the U.S. assassinated Iran’s top general, are working on multiple tracks to try to keep tensions between Tehran and Washington from building into a military confrontation.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has instructed his younger brother, Deputy Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, to travel to Washington and London in the next few days to urge restraint, the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper reported, citing people it didn’t identify.

The threat of conflict offered the kingdom a rare opportunity for common cause with Qatar, which it’s shunned since June 2017. Qatar’s foreign minister was dispatched to Tehran with a similar appeal for calm. 

“The message from the Gulf to the U.S. is clear: They are telling Trump, ‘Please spare us the pain of going through another war that would be destructive to the region,’” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor in the neighboring United Arab Emirates. “We will be the first to pay the price for any military showdown, so it’s in our best interest not to see things get out of hand.”

Oil Set for Bumpy Week as U.S. Says Iran May Strike Saudi Again - Bloomberg

Oil Set for Bumpy Week as U.S. Says Iran May Strike Saudi Again - Bloomberg:

Oil is set for a bumpy week as the U.S. warned Iran may attack Saudi Arabia again following the American assassination of one of the Islamic Republic’s most powerful generals.

There’s “heightened risk” of missile attacks near military bases and energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. State Department warned Sunday, raising the prospect of disruptions in the world’s most important oil-producing region.

The warning followed a weekend of bellicose rhetoric. President Donald Trump said more than 50 Iranian sites could be hit if Tehran retaliates against the killing of Qassem Soleimani, while the Middle East nation said it has to “settle a score with the U.S.”

#Saudi Aramco News: First Big Test After Massive IPO - Bloomberg

Saudi Aramco News: First Big Test After Massive IPO - Bloomberg:

Saudi Aramco’s status as an oil-producing behemoth located in one of the world’s most turbulent regions always marked it as likely to suffer bouts of volatility.

But few could have expected the stock to face so stern a test less than a month after the company’s historic $25.6 billion initial offering.

The world’s most profitable company tumbled 1.7% Sunday, the most in more than two weeks, as the U.S. killing of Iran’s most prominent general last week triggered fresh concern of a wider conflict in the Gulf region. While Aramco performed better than Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul index, the sudden rise in geopolitical tension comes just as the end of the stabilization period for the shares nears following the Dec. 11 sale.


“The risks will remain over the near term as both the United States and Iran aim threats at one another,” said Jameel Ahmad, a markets analyst at FXTM in London. The drop in Aramco shares “is a natural reaction to the coordinated risk aversion that has swept global sentiment since the events at the end of last week.”

#Saudi Aramco shares hit lowest since IPO, down 1.7% | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi Aramco shares hit lowest since IPO, down 1.7% | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Shares of Saudi Aramco were down 1.7% in late afternoon trade on Sunday, hitting 34.55 riyals ($9.21) per share, its lowest level since it started trading last month after a record initial public offering (IPO).

The shares reacted to across-the-board selling in Gulf markets after Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was killed on Friday in a U.S. drone strike on his convoy at Baghdad airport. 

Aramco was trading above its IPO price of 32 riyals per share, but was down 10.7% since hitting an intraday high of 38.70 riyals on Dec 31.

Yen Matches Three-Month High After Mideast Stocks Get a Mauling - Bloomberg

Yen Matches Three-Month High After Mideast Stocks Get a Mauling - Bloomberg:

The yen held near its strongest level against the dollar in almost three months amid demand for haven assets after the U.S. killing of Iran’s most senior military commander sent Middle Eastern stocks into retreat, setting the tone for what’s likely to be a volatile week.

Japan’s currency appreciated for a third-straight day as markets opened in Sydney, while the Australian dollar weakened.

 All the Middle East’s major equity gauges fell Sunday. Kuwait’s dropped more than 4%, trimming a rally that made it the best market in the region last year. Saudi Aramco slumped as the country’s Tadawul All Share Index lost as much 2.5%. Egypt’s EGX30 gauge fell 4.4%, the most since September, and stocks in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Israel and Oman also weakened.


Geopolitical risks flared after Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was killed in Iraq last week in a drone attack ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani vowed revenge, while Trump said late Saturday the U.S. had identified 52 Iranian sites that would be hit “very hard” if Tehran retaliated. Iran also said it would no longer abide by any limits on its enrichment of uranium, while Iraq’s parliament voted to expel U.S. troops from the country.

MIDEAST STOCKS- #Kuwait leads Gulf losses as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate, Aramco lowest since IPO - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Kuwait leads Gulf losses as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate, Aramco lowest since IPO - Reuters:

Gulf bourses saw steep declines on Sunday,
with Kuwait falling the most following tensions between the
United States and Iran, while outside the Gulf Egypt was also
hard hit as all its shares ended lower.

Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was killed on
Friday in a U.S. drone strike on his convoy at Baghdad airport,
seen by Tehran as an act of war that risks regional
conflagration.

"Not surprising, the Gulf markets are reacting negatively
given we are in the middle of all the geopolitics action," said
Vrajesh Bhandari, senior portfolio manager at Al Mal Capital.
"We fear this can be an overhang over the next few months and
not just a one day or week thing."

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index lost 2.4%, weighed
down by a 2.1% drop in Al Rajhi Bank and a 1.7% fall
in state-owned Aramco to 34.6 riyals, which hit its
lowest intraday level since last month's market debut.

Mideast Stocks Get a Mauling as Soleimani Death Raises Tension - Bloomberg

Mideast Stocks Get a Mauling as Soleimani Death Raises Tension - Bloomberg:

The U.S. killing of Iran’s most senior military commander reverberated through Middle Eastern markets, sending stocks into retreat and setting the tone for what’s likely to be a volatile week.

All the region’s major equity gauges fell on Sunday. Kuwait’s dropped more than 4%, trimming a rally that made it the best market in the region last year. Saudi Aramco shares slumped as the country’s Tadawul All Share Index lost as much 2.1%, with local banks contributing the most to its decline. Benchmark stock indexes in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Israel, Egypt and Oman also weakened.



Geopolitical risks flared after Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was killed in Iraq last week in a drone attack ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani vowed revenge, while Trump said late Saturday the U.S. had identified 52 Iranian sites that would be hit “very hard” if Tehran retaliated.

“Investors who were hoping for lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East and North Africa in 2020 got their hopes dashed on the second day of the year,” said Mohammed Ali Yasin, chief strategy officer at Abu Dhabi-based Al Dhabi Capital Ltd. “2020 will continue to be a year of high geopolitical tensions.”

Will Oil Become the Weapon of Choice for Iran? - Bloomberg

Will Oil Become the Weapon of Choice for Iran? - Bloomberg:

Events in 2019 served as a reminder for just how vulnerable the world’s oil supply is, and Iran was usually blamed as the culprit for attacks on ships, pipelines and processing plants in the Middle East. But the knock-on effects blew over quickly in a world that appeared oblivious to the geopolitics of oil. Now in the wake of the U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force, the big question hanging over the market is whether Iran will target oil in its response. 

There is no particular reason to expect that Iran’s retaliation will target oil, except that even the best guarded of the industry’s installations have been shown to be vulnerable and the steady stream of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz presents multiple opportunities to disrupt flows. About 34 million barrels of crude from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait was passing through the channel on their way out of the Persian Gulf and toward U.S. ports last month, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking.

Attacks in September on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais briefly took 5.7 million barrels a day of the country’s oil production capacity offline, the single biggest disruption in supply on record. It served as a wake-up call that the world’s oil security blanket — the spare production capacity that is almost uniquely held by the kingdom — was not nearly as secure as once was thought. 

#Saudi Default Risk Jumps as U.S.-Iran Tensions Flare: Chart - Bloomberg

Saudi Default Risk Jumps as U.S.-Iran Tensions Flare: Chart - Bloomberg:



The cost of insuring against a Saudi Arabian bond default spiked on Friday following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most venerated generals, on the orders of U.S. President Donald Trump. The price of the kingdom’s five-year credit default swaps rose even more than when missiles struck Saudi oil facilities in September, an attack Washington blamed on Tehran. At 65 basis points, Saudi Arabia’s CDS is more expensive than Indonesia’s for the first time in almost two years.

#Qatar to supply #Kuwait with 3 million tonnes of LNG a year: statement - Reuters

Qatar to supply Kuwait with 3 million tonnes of LNG a year: statement - Reuters:

State-run Qatar Petroleum said on Sunday it had signed a 15-year agreement to supply Kuwait with up to 3 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year. 


Deliveries to Kuwait’s al-Zour port will begin in 2022 “to support meeting Kuwait’s growing energy needs and demand, particularly in the power generation sector,” QP said in the joint statement with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC).

MIDEAST STOCKS- #Kuwait leads losses as Gulf slides on U.S.-Iran tensions - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Kuwait leads losses as Gulf slides on U.S.-Iran tensions - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters:

Most Gulf bourses fell sharply in early trade on Sunday with Kuwait leading the losses after Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was killed on Friday in a U.S. drone strike on his convoy at Baghdad airport.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell 2% weighed down by a 1.4% slide in Al Rajhi Bank and a 2.7% drop in National Commercial Bank.

State-owned Saudi Aramco fell 0.7% to 34.9 riyals ($9.30).

In Kuwait, the index opened 3.4% lower with all stocks in the red including National Bank of Kuwait, off 3.4% and Kuwait Finance House down 3.6%.