Trump Rocked Energy In 2018. 2019 Could Be Wilder - Bloomberg:
President Donald Trump’s love of coal, rejection of climate science and disdain for things like fuel efficiency hark back to a smokier, smudgier era. Yet if this year has shown anything, he is one of the biggest disruptors in energy. He just does a different kind of disruption.
In a prescient essay published late last year, Jason Bordoff, founder of the Center on Global Energy Policy, wrote that Trump’s energy-specific policies would have less of an impact than his broader shifts in foreign and domestic policy. One look at the minimal impact of efforts to revive coal mining suggests Bordoff was on to something. When it comes to Trump and energy, macro trumps micro.
As outgoing Defense Secretary James Mattis put with skewering politeness in his resignation letter, Trump personifies what you could call a profound shift in U.S. foreign relations. The prior constants of free trade and security guarantees underwritten by the U.S. were the product of a Cold War that ended three decades ago. See this column for a more detailed discussion, but suffice to say the post-1945 order that nurtured the world’s energy markets is now being challenged by its chief sponsor.
Friday 21 December 2018
U.S. Oil Rig Count Rose Last Week - Bloomberg
U.S. Oil Rig Count Rose Last Week - Bloomberg:
Crude drilling increased in American fields even as explorers face the biggest quarterly drop in oil prices since 2014.
Working U.S. oil rigs rose by 10 this week to 883, according to data released Friday by oilfield services provider Baker Hughes. More than 100 additional rigs have been deployed across American fields this year.
It’s likely one of the last increases, said James West, an analyst at Evercore ISI, as oil prices remain at the lowest levels in more than a year. Given moves by companies including Diamondback Energy Inc. and Parsley Energy Inc. to rein in spending, “I would expect to see the rig count dip heading into the new year.”
Crude drilling increased in American fields even as explorers face the biggest quarterly drop in oil prices since 2014.
Working U.S. oil rigs rose by 10 this week to 883, according to data released Friday by oilfield services provider Baker Hughes. More than 100 additional rigs have been deployed across American fields this year.
It’s likely one of the last increases, said James West, an analyst at Evercore ISI, as oil prices remain at the lowest levels in more than a year. Given moves by companies including Diamondback Energy Inc. and Parsley Energy Inc. to rein in spending, “I would expect to see the rig count dip heading into the new year.”
As Oil Prices Plunge, OPEC Output Is at Risk From Social Unrest - Bloomberg
As Oil Prices Plunge, OPEC Output Is at Risk From Social Unrest - Bloomberg:
Oil’s plunge has taken prices below the level all but one OPEC country needs to square their 2019 budgets, increasing the risk of supply disruptions from economic dislocation and social unrest.
At today’s Brent price of $55 a barrel, only uber-wealthy and sparsely populated Kuwait will be able to make ends meets next year. OPEC giants Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran need much higher prices. So do the nations that have suffered disruptions in the past when prices have fallen: Libya, Venezuela and Nigeria.
As prices have dropped, the market has focused on the impact on U.S. shale growth next year, but recent history points to rising risks within the cartel. As oil revenues fall, governments could soon face social unrest due to slower economic growth and higher unemployment. They’ll also have far less money to invest in the petroleum sector to keep output up.
Oil’s plunge has taken prices below the level all but one OPEC country needs to square their 2019 budgets, increasing the risk of supply disruptions from economic dislocation and social unrest.
At today’s Brent price of $55 a barrel, only uber-wealthy and sparsely populated Kuwait will be able to make ends meets next year. OPEC giants Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran need much higher prices. So do the nations that have suffered disruptions in the past when prices have fallen: Libya, Venezuela and Nigeria.
As prices have dropped, the market has focused on the impact on U.S. shale growth next year, but recent history points to rising risks within the cartel. As oil revenues fall, governments could soon face social unrest due to slower economic growth and higher unemployment. They’ll also have far less money to invest in the petroleum sector to keep output up.
#UAE gross bank assets amount to $777bln | ZAWYA MENA Edition
UAE gross bank assets amount to $777bln | ZAWYA MENA Edition:
The UAE gross bank assets amounted to AED2.854 trillion by the end of November 2018, 6.00 percent up from AED2.694 trillion by the end of December 2017, according to Central Bank of UAE statistics released today.
Gross credit increased to around AED1.653 trillion by the end of November, a growth of 4.6 percent from AED1.58 trillion in December last year.
Domestic loans received by the private sector rose from AED1.086 trillion in December 2017 to around AED1.132 trillion by the end of November, with retail loans amounting to AED338.6 billion by the end of November from AED337.5 billion from December last year.
The UAE gross bank assets amounted to AED2.854 trillion by the end of November 2018, 6.00 percent up from AED2.694 trillion by the end of December 2017, according to Central Bank of UAE statistics released today.
Gross credit increased to around AED1.653 trillion by the end of November, a growth of 4.6 percent from AED1.58 trillion in December last year.
Domestic loans received by the private sector rose from AED1.086 trillion in December 2017 to around AED1.132 trillion by the end of November, with retail loans amounting to AED338.6 billion by the end of November from AED337.5 billion from December last year.
Exclusive: Mitsui, Saudi Aramco, Russia's RDIF in talks to buy Arctic LNG 2 stakes - sources | Reuters
Exclusive: Mitsui, Saudi Aramco, Russia's RDIF in talks to buy Arctic LNG 2 stakes - sources | Reuters:
Japan’s Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031.T), Russian sovereign wealth fund RDIF and Saudi Aramco are in talks to buy stakes in Novatek’s (NVTK.MM) Arctic LNG 2 project, with the size of the investments still to be decided, sources familiar with the talks told Reuters.
Novatek plans to start producing LNG at Arctic LNG 2 in 2022-2023. The plant, which is expected to cost around $25.5 billion, will have an annual production capacity of 19.8 million tonnes and will be Novatek’s second LNG plant after Yamal LNG.
Novatek owns a 90 percent stake in the project, with France’s Total (TOTF.PA) holding the other 10 percent. Novatek intends to keep a 60 percent stake in Arctic LNG 2, offering 30 percent to other investors.
Japan’s Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031.T), Russian sovereign wealth fund RDIF and Saudi Aramco are in talks to buy stakes in Novatek’s (NVTK.MM) Arctic LNG 2 project, with the size of the investments still to be decided, sources familiar with the talks told Reuters.
Novatek plans to start producing LNG at Arctic LNG 2 in 2022-2023. The plant, which is expected to cost around $25.5 billion, will have an annual production capacity of 19.8 million tonnes and will be Novatek’s second LNG plant after Yamal LNG.
Novatek owns a 90 percent stake in the project, with France’s Total (TOTF.PA) holding the other 10 percent. Novatek intends to keep a 60 percent stake in Arctic LNG 2, offering 30 percent to other investors.
UPDATE 1-Pakistan to get $3 bln loan from #UAE, eyes deferred oil payments | Reuters
UPDATE 1-Pakistan to get $3 bln loan from UAE, eyes deferred oil payments | Reuters:
The United Arab Emirates plans to deposit $3 billion in Pakistan’s central bank “in the next few days”, the UAE state news agency WAM reported on Friday, while a Pakistani official said Islamabad also hopes it will allow deferred payments for oil supplies.
Pakistan is battling to bring under control a gaping current account deficit that’s wobbled its economy and lowered growth.
Islamabad is engaged in bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but has also sought financial help from allies China and Saudi Arabia.
The United Arab Emirates plans to deposit $3 billion in Pakistan’s central bank “in the next few days”, the UAE state news agency WAM reported on Friday, while a Pakistani official said Islamabad also hopes it will allow deferred payments for oil supplies.
Pakistan is battling to bring under control a gaping current account deficit that’s wobbled its economy and lowered growth.
Islamabad is engaged in bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but has also sought financial help from allies China and Saudi Arabia.
U.S. shale producers hit the brakes on 2019 spending | Reuters
U.S. shale producers hit the brakes on 2019 spending | Reuters:
U.S. shale producers are slamming the brakes on next year’s drilling with crude prices off 40 percent and mounting fears of oversupply, paring budgets that in some cases were set only weeks earlier.
The reversal is alarming because blistering growth in shale fields has propelled U.S. crude output 16 percent to about 10.9 million barrels per day for 2018, above Saudi Arabia and Russia. Production has been expected to rise 11 percent more in 2019 as large oil firms and independents added wells this year.
Shale producer Centennial Resource Development on Thursday joined rivals Diamondback Energy, and Parsley Energy in canceling drilling rig additions next year. Centennial, led by shale pioneer Mark Papa, withdrew its 2020 production target and canceled plans to add 2.5 drilling rigs, citing market weakness.
U.S. shale producers are slamming the brakes on next year’s drilling with crude prices off 40 percent and mounting fears of oversupply, paring budgets that in some cases were set only weeks earlier.
The reversal is alarming because blistering growth in shale fields has propelled U.S. crude output 16 percent to about 10.9 million barrels per day for 2018, above Saudi Arabia and Russia. Production has been expected to rise 11 percent more in 2019 as large oil firms and independents added wells this year.
Shale producer Centennial Resource Development on Thursday joined rivals Diamondback Energy, and Parsley Energy in canceling drilling rig additions next year. Centennial, led by shale pioneer Mark Papa, withdrew its 2020 production target and canceled plans to add 2.5 drilling rigs, citing market weakness.
Crude drops more than 11 percent in week as supply weighs | Reuters
Crude drops more than 11 percent in week as supply weighs | Reuters:
Oil prices fell on Friday to their lowest since the third quarter of 2017, heading for losses of more than 11 percent in a week, as global oversupply kept buyers away from the market ahead of holidays over the next two weeks.
Crude has lost ground along with major equity markets as investors fret about the strength of the global economy heading into next year. The prospect of a possible government shutdown in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, has added to investors’ worries.
Oil markets have pulled back amid concerns about oversupply, despite planned production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Oil prices fell on Friday to their lowest since the third quarter of 2017, heading for losses of more than 11 percent in a week, as global oversupply kept buyers away from the market ahead of holidays over the next two weeks.
Crude has lost ground along with major equity markets as investors fret about the strength of the global economy heading into next year. The prospect of a possible government shutdown in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, has added to investors’ worries.
Oil markets have pulled back amid concerns about oversupply, despite planned production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Oil Set for Weekly Drop as Growth and Glut Threats Rattle Market - Bloomberg
Oil Set for Weekly Drop as Growth and Glut Threats Rattle Market - Bloomberg:
Oil’s poised for its biggest weekly drop in a month on concerns of weakening growth and doubts over whether the OPEC+ coalition’s output curbs will counter surging U.S. supply.
Futures in New York are on course for a 9.4 percent decline this week. Crude joined a sell-off in wider financial markets after an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve and the threat of a U.S. government shutdown added to economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors remain skeptical that cuts agreed by OPEC and its allies are sufficient to avert a looming oil glut.
Crude’s heading for its worst quarterly loss in four years on fears the relentless growth in American shale will undermine efforts by OPEC and its partners to balance the market. At the same time, concerns over growth persist even as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell promised to be more cautious on raising rates next year, while a closely watched speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping offered no new reforms to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy.
Oil’s poised for its biggest weekly drop in a month on concerns of weakening growth and doubts over whether the OPEC+ coalition’s output curbs will counter surging U.S. supply.
Futures in New York are on course for a 9.4 percent decline this week. Crude joined a sell-off in wider financial markets after an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve and the threat of a U.S. government shutdown added to economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors remain skeptical that cuts agreed by OPEC and its allies are sufficient to avert a looming oil glut.
Crude’s heading for its worst quarterly loss in four years on fears the relentless growth in American shale will undermine efforts by OPEC and its partners to balance the market. At the same time, concerns over growth persist even as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell promised to be more cautious on raising rates next year, while a closely watched speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping offered no new reforms to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy.
Saudi Arabia Budget Will Make Investors Miss Vision 2030 - Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia Budget Will Make Investors Miss Vision 2030 - Bloomberg:
Saudi Arabia seems already to have forgotten Vision 2030, the ambitious reform plan it announced amid great fanfare just two years ago. The kingdom’s expansionary new budget suggests that the government lacks the resolve and the discipline to wean the country from its dependence on oil, shrink state handouts, and develop a viable private sector.
Next year’s budget, announced Tuesday, calls for nearly $300 billion in spending, the largest outlay in the kingdom’s history, despite weak oil prices and falling production. It projects a deficit of 4.2 percent of gross domestic product, but that gap may widen, given that the revenue forecast depends on improbably high prices. The government also announced it will extend for another year its annual handouts to citizens — exactly the kind of extravagance that Vision 2030 meant to eliminate.
The new spending will wipe out any gains from the few reforms that have been put in place, such as a 5 percent value-added tax. And it will deepen doubts among investors, local and foreign alike.
Saudi Arabia seems already to have forgotten Vision 2030, the ambitious reform plan it announced amid great fanfare just two years ago. The kingdom’s expansionary new budget suggests that the government lacks the resolve and the discipline to wean the country from its dependence on oil, shrink state handouts, and develop a viable private sector.
Next year’s budget, announced Tuesday, calls for nearly $300 billion in spending, the largest outlay in the kingdom’s history, despite weak oil prices and falling production. It projects a deficit of 4.2 percent of gross domestic product, but that gap may widen, given that the revenue forecast depends on improbably high prices. The government also announced it will extend for another year its annual handouts to citizens — exactly the kind of extravagance that Vision 2030 meant to eliminate.
The new spending will wipe out any gains from the few reforms that have been put in place, such as a 5 percent value-added tax. And it will deepen doubts among investors, local and foreign alike.
Saudi Arabia: Year in Review 2018 | ZAWYA MENA Edition
Saudi Arabia: Year in Review 2018 | ZAWYA MENA Edition:
Stronger energy revenue for much of the year and liberalisation reforms have helped Saudi Arabia’s economy rebound in 2018, though falling oil prices late in the year and the potential fallout over security issues could affect growth moving forward.
In October the IMF revised its forecast for Saudi economic growth in 2018 and 2019, predicting GDP would increase by 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively, up on the 1.9% previously projected for both years and a considerable increase on a contraction of 0.9% in 2017.
The fund said the recovery was driven by higher energy prices, which improved external balances, along with reforms undertaken by the government to increase domestic labour participation and strengthen the business environment.
Stronger energy revenue for much of the year and liberalisation reforms have helped Saudi Arabia’s economy rebound in 2018, though falling oil prices late in the year and the potential fallout over security issues could affect growth moving forward.
In October the IMF revised its forecast for Saudi economic growth in 2018 and 2019, predicting GDP would increase by 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively, up on the 1.9% previously projected for both years and a considerable increase on a contraction of 0.9% in 2017.
The fund said the recovery was driven by higher energy prices, which improved external balances, along with reforms undertaken by the government to increase domestic labour participation and strengthen the business environment.
U.S. oil production to be equal to Russia plus Saudi Arabia by 2025: IEA head | Reuters
U.S. oil production to be equal to Russia plus Saudi Arabia by 2025: IEA head | Reuters:
Total oil production in the United States will be nearly equal to that of Russia and Saudi Arabia combined by 2025, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
Fatih Birol made the comment in an interview with Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu news agency.
Total oil production in the United States will be nearly equal to that of Russia and Saudi Arabia combined by 2025, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
Fatih Birol made the comment in an interview with Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu news agency.
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