Putin’s Grand Gas Project Makes Sense Now - Bloomberg:
In the space of just a few momentous weeks, one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most ambitious projects — a Russian natural gas export system to match the new geopolitical reality rather than the Cold War-era one — has taken its final shape. It will probably last, without major change, until the end of Russia’s run as a top energy exporter.
The finishing touches to the project, begun in 2001 with the construction of the Blue Stream pipeline to Turkey, include the launch of the Power of Siberia pipeline to China on Dec. 2, last week’s U.S. sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany, a new gas transit deal with Ukraine and the commissioning of the TurkStream pipeline, planned for January.
External pressure and market circumstances have helped shape the new Russian gas export system so that it can’t really be used as a sinister tool of Putin’s rogue foreign policy. Meanwhile, it’s structured in a such a way that post-Putin Russia will still be able to maintain its energy market share and use it as a basis for useful trade partnerships. That makes it a positive part of Putin’s legacy, if not entirely thanks to Putin.
Thursday, 26 December 2019
'No One Knows' How Much Lebanese Pound (LBP) Could Fall: Official - Bloomberg
'No One Knows' How Much Lebanese Pound (LBP) Could Fall: Official - Bloomberg:
Lebanon’s central bank governor has suggested he’s struggling to contain the divergence of the pound from its peg to the dollar as the country faces its worst financial crisis in decades.
“No one knows,” Riad Salameh said, when asked how much further the pound would depreciate on the black market. “When I spoke in the past, the dollar hadn’t reached 2,000 pounds,” he said, according to the state-run National News Agency. The pound has been pegged at 1,507.5 to the dollar since 1997. Salameh later stressed that the central bank’s policy on the official rate remains unchanged.
Salameh, who’s been at the helm of the central bank since 1993, has repeatedly said the central bank has enough reserves to defend the peg and would maintain the fixed exchange regime.
“The central bank governor may be giving up on combating the black market rate,” said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg’s chief Middle East economist. “The gap between the official rate and the black market is too daunting to bridge.”
Lebanon’s central bank governor has suggested he’s struggling to contain the divergence of the pound from its peg to the dollar as the country faces its worst financial crisis in decades.
“No one knows,” Riad Salameh said, when asked how much further the pound would depreciate on the black market. “When I spoke in the past, the dollar hadn’t reached 2,000 pounds,” he said, according to the state-run National News Agency. The pound has been pegged at 1,507.5 to the dollar since 1997. Salameh later stressed that the central bank’s policy on the official rate remains unchanged.
Salameh, who’s been at the helm of the central bank since 1993, has repeatedly said the central bank has enough reserves to defend the peg and would maintain the fixed exchange regime.
“The central bank governor may be giving up on combating the black market rate,” said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg’s chief Middle East economist. “The gap between the official rate and the black market is too daunting to bridge.”
Rate of average #Dubai property price declines slows in 2019 - Arabianbusiness
Rate of average Dubai property price declines slows in 2019 - Arabianbusiness:
Average monthly property price declines in Dubai has slowed during 2019 compared to the previous 12 months, according to new research.
Consulting firm ValuStrat said in a new report that the average loss in capital values per month slowed marginally to 0.8 percent in 2019 when compared to the average 1 percent drop in 2018.
Its VPI – Residential Capital Values for Dubai as of November stood at 75.9 points, dipping 0.9 percent since October, and down by 10.8 percent on an annual basis.
The report showed that all Dubai locations saw monthly capital values marginally decline, the highest of which was Jumeirah Village Circle apartments with -1.1 percent, and the lowest was -0.6 percent for International City.
Average monthly property price declines in Dubai has slowed during 2019 compared to the previous 12 months, according to new research.
Consulting firm ValuStrat said in a new report that the average loss in capital values per month slowed marginally to 0.8 percent in 2019 when compared to the average 1 percent drop in 2018.
Its VPI – Residential Capital Values for Dubai as of November stood at 75.9 points, dipping 0.9 percent since October, and down by 10.8 percent on an annual basis.
The report showed that all Dubai locations saw monthly capital values marginally decline, the highest of which was Jumeirah Village Circle apartments with -1.1 percent, and the lowest was -0.6 percent for International City.
#Saudi banking giants forecast to maintain 'strong profitability' - Arabianbusiness
Saudi banking giants forecast to maintain 'strong profitability' - Arabianbusiness:
Saudi Arabia's three largest banks, National Commercial Bank (NCB), Al Rajhi Bank, and Saudi British Bank (SABB), will maintain strong profitability even as interest margins on their lending narrow because of falling interest rates, according to Moody's Investors Service.
In a new research note, the ratings agency said the three banks have a combined market share of 47 percent of the country's banking assets.
"SABB will be hardest hit because it must also absorb the costs of its merger with smaller peer Alawwal Bank, and NCB will face a similar pressure if its planned merger with Riyad Bank is completed," said Ashraf Madani, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's.
"Al Rajhi's retail focus will provide initial protection, but prolonged low rates will take their toll. Nevertheless, sound efficiency and strong capital at all three banks will protect their credit profiles," he added.
Saudi Arabia's three largest banks, National Commercial Bank (NCB), Al Rajhi Bank, and Saudi British Bank (SABB), will maintain strong profitability even as interest margins on their lending narrow because of falling interest rates, according to Moody's Investors Service.
In a new research note, the ratings agency said the three banks have a combined market share of 47 percent of the country's banking assets.
"SABB will be hardest hit because it must also absorb the costs of its merger with smaller peer Alawwal Bank, and NCB will face a similar pressure if its planned merger with Riyad Bank is completed," said Ashraf Madani, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's.
"Al Rajhi's retail focus will provide initial protection, but prolonged low rates will take their toll. Nevertheless, sound efficiency and strong capital at all three banks will protect their credit profiles," he added.
Oil up 1% at highest since September on trade pact and crude supplies - Reuters
Oil up 1% at highest since September on trade pact and crude supplies - Reuters:
Oil prices were up about 1% to the highest in more than three months on Thursday, boosted by hopes that the China-U.S. trade fight would soon come to an end and by a report showing lower U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled at $67.92 a barrel, rising 72 cents, or 1.07%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 settled at $61.68 a barrel, up 57 cents, or 0.93%Both benchmarks were their strongest since Sept. 17.
China on Wednesday said it was in close touch with the United States on a trade deal signing ceremony, after U.S. President Donald Trump said a day earlier that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a ceremony to sign the Phase 1 trade deal.
The prospect of a sealed agreement propelled Wall Street to fresh highs, helping to support crude futures, which often follow equities.
Oil prices were up about 1% to the highest in more than three months on Thursday, boosted by hopes that the China-U.S. trade fight would soon come to an end and by a report showing lower U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled at $67.92 a barrel, rising 72 cents, or 1.07%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 settled at $61.68 a barrel, up 57 cents, or 0.93%Both benchmarks were their strongest since Sept. 17.
China on Wednesday said it was in close touch with the United States on a trade deal signing ceremony, after U.S. President Donald Trump said a day earlier that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a ceremony to sign the Phase 1 trade deal.
The prospect of a sealed agreement propelled Wall Street to fresh highs, helping to support crude futures, which often follow equities.
MIDEAST STOCKS-Most of Gulf falls but petrochemicals boost #Saudi - Reuters
MIDEAST STOCKS-Most of Gulf falls but petrochemicals boost Saudi - Reuters:
Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates
and Qatar fell on Thursday with banking shares leading the way,
but petrochemicals helped Saudi Arabia buck the trend.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index reversed earlier
losses to close up 0.1%, with Saudi Basic Industries
gaining 1.3% and state-owned Aramco 0.4% higher at
35.4 riyals ($9.44).
On Tuesday, Aramco said IPO bookrunner Goldman Sachs may
make additional purchases of the oil giant's shares to support
the price of the stock. The so-called stabilisation period will
end on Jan. 9, but so far no transactions have been executed.
Yanbu National Petrochemicals (Yansab) fell 1.8%
after its board proposed a lower second-half dividend this year.
In Abu Dhabi, the index slipped 1% with the United
Arab Emirates' (UAE) largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank
down 1.2% and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank off
0.9%.
Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates
and Qatar fell on Thursday with banking shares leading the way,
but petrochemicals helped Saudi Arabia buck the trend.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index reversed earlier
losses to close up 0.1%, with Saudi Basic Industries
gaining 1.3% and state-owned Aramco 0.4% higher at
35.4 riyals ($9.44).
On Tuesday, Aramco said IPO bookrunner Goldman Sachs may
make additional purchases of the oil giant's shares to support
the price of the stock. The so-called stabilisation period will
end on Jan. 9, but so far no transactions have been executed.
Yanbu National Petrochemicals (Yansab) fell 1.8%
after its board proposed a lower second-half dividend this year.
In Abu Dhabi, the index slipped 1% with the United
Arab Emirates' (UAE) largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank
down 1.2% and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank off
0.9%.
Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman Is Prince of Mixed Messages - Bloomberg ht @ghoshworld
Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman Is Prince of Mixed Messages - Bloomberg:
Is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a reformer or a reactionary? The answer, maddening to those who love him as much as to those who loathe him, is that Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler might just be both those things.
In a year when he was under especially close international scrutiny, thanks to the grotesque late-2018 murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the prince — arguably the Middle East’s most important figure — gave free rein to both sides of his public persona, presiding over both reform and repression. It did nothing to alter the impression of MBS, as he is commonly known, as a man who wants to have his cake as well as eat it.
The duality was on display in his interview with PBS’s “Frontline,” when he both acknowledged and averted responsibility for Khashoggi’s killing: It had happened “under my watch,” he allowed, but then sought to deflect blame by saying he couldn’t know what all 3 million government officials were doing at any given time. A secretive Saudi investigation, followed by opaque court proceedings, led to sentences being handed down this week — but nobody was persuaded that justice had been done. For the record, the United Nations rapporteur who investigated the murder said Prince Mohammed “has a responsibility in relationship to the killing” and the CIA believes he gave the order.
 |
Which prince?
Photographer: Ryad Kramdi/AFP
|
Is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a reformer or a reactionary? The answer, maddening to those who love him as much as to those who loathe him, is that Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler might just be both those things.
In a year when he was under especially close international scrutiny, thanks to the grotesque late-2018 murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the prince — arguably the Middle East’s most important figure — gave free rein to both sides of his public persona, presiding over both reform and repression. It did nothing to alter the impression of MBS, as he is commonly known, as a man who wants to have his cake as well as eat it.
The duality was on display in his interview with PBS’s “Frontline,” when he both acknowledged and averted responsibility for Khashoggi’s killing: It had happened “under my watch,” he allowed, but then sought to deflect blame by saying he couldn’t know what all 3 million government officials were doing at any given time. A secretive Saudi investigation, followed by opaque court proceedings, led to sentences being handed down this week — but nobody was persuaded that justice had been done. For the record, the United Nations rapporteur who investigated the murder said Prince Mohammed “has a responsibility in relationship to the killing” and the CIA believes he gave the order.
There was an air of equivocation, too, in MBS’s program of social reforms, where two steps forward in some areas — such as the relaxation of guardianship laws for women and regulations requiring gender-specific entrances in restaurants — were accompanied by a step back in others. The arrest of intellectuals in late November echoed last year’s shocking detention of women’s rights activists, just weeks before the prince lifted a ban on women driving.
Permian Gas Problem Just Gets Worse as Shale Drilling Slows Down - Bloomberg
Permian Gas Problem Just Gets Worse as Shale Drilling Slows Down - Bloomberg:
America’s top shale field is becoming increasingly gassy as drilling slows down, undercutting profits for explorers at a time when investors are demanding better returns.
Natural gas has long been a nuisance in the Permian, where a massive glut weighs on prices, with crude producers sometimes having to pay to get it hauled away or burn it off in a controversial practice known as flaring. Now the problem is intensifying as wells age and fewer new wells are drilled.
Shale wells produce a spew of oil when they’re first fracked, but over time, production falls -- sometimes as much as 70% in the first year -- and gas becomes a bigger part of the mix.
“Activity levels are no longer what they were,” said Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy. “The oil ratio is no longer sufficient to offset gas in older wells, so we’re seeing some increase in basin-wide” gas-to-oil ratios.
America’s top shale field is becoming increasingly gassy as drilling slows down, undercutting profits for explorers at a time when investors are demanding better returns.
Natural gas has long been a nuisance in the Permian, where a massive glut weighs on prices, with crude producers sometimes having to pay to get it hauled away or burn it off in a controversial practice known as flaring. Now the problem is intensifying as wells age and fewer new wells are drilled.
Shale wells produce a spew of oil when they’re first fracked, but over time, production falls -- sometimes as much as 70% in the first year -- and gas becomes a bigger part of the mix.
“Activity levels are no longer what they were,” said Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy. “The oil ratio is no longer sufficient to offset gas in older wells, so we’re seeing some increase in basin-wide” gas-to-oil ratios.
Aramco, Lebanon, Gulf Oil: A Guide to Middle East Risks in 2020 - Bloomberg
Aramco, Lebanon, Gulf Oil: A Guide to Middle East Risks in 2020 - Bloomberg:
If 2019 was the year when a clutch of Middle East markets burst into the mainstream, then 2020 will test whether the foreign money keeps flooding in.
The year opened with five Gulf Arab economies joining JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging-market bond indexes. The spotlight stayed firmly on the region as Saudi Aramco’s $12 billion international bond debut in April was followed by preparations for its historic public offering at the end of the year. Gulf dollar bonds outperformed their emerging-market peers with returns of 15% this year.
At the same time, drone and missile strikes on Aramco’s facilities in September served as a reminder of the region’s political fault-lines and the potential pitfalls investors face.
If 2019 was the year when a clutch of Middle East markets burst into the mainstream, then 2020 will test whether the foreign money keeps flooding in.
The year opened with five Gulf Arab economies joining JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging-market bond indexes. The spotlight stayed firmly on the region as Saudi Aramco’s $12 billion international bond debut in April was followed by preparations for its historic public offering at the end of the year. Gulf dollar bonds outperformed their emerging-market peers with returns of 15% this year.
At the same time, drone and missile strikes on Aramco’s facilities in September served as a reminder of the region’s political fault-lines and the potential pitfalls investors face.
#Dubai's Deyaar claims final court victory over Limitless in land deal dispute - Arabianbusiness
Dubai's Deyaar claims final court victory over Limitless in land deal dispute - Arabianbusiness:
The Court of Cassation has thrown out an appeal from Dubai developer Limitless over a land deal dispute with fellow developer Deyaar.
Deyaar Development said in a statement posted to Dubai Financial Market that the court had issued a ruling, upholding a ruling made by the Court of Appeal in September, which had confirmed Dubai Court of First Instance’s judgement to terminate all sale and purchase agreements of lands under dispute.
It has also ordered Limitless to return all amounts paid, to the tune of AED411,966,050 ($112,175,915) plus pay a compensation amount of AED61,107,301, due to Limitless’s "breach of its obligations".
The statement from Amer Al Zoubi, general counsel and board secretary, said: “The impact of the judgement on the financial position of the company and the expected period of the impact of the news on the financial statements depends on the date of the amount collection.”
The Court of Cassation has thrown out an appeal from Dubai developer Limitless over a land deal dispute with fellow developer Deyaar.
Deyaar Development said in a statement posted to Dubai Financial Market that the court had issued a ruling, upholding a ruling made by the Court of Appeal in September, which had confirmed Dubai Court of First Instance’s judgement to terminate all sale and purchase agreements of lands under dispute.
It has also ordered Limitless to return all amounts paid, to the tune of AED411,966,050 ($112,175,915) plus pay a compensation amount of AED61,107,301, due to Limitless’s "breach of its obligations".
The statement from Amer Al Zoubi, general counsel and board secretary, said: “The impact of the judgement on the financial position of the company and the expected period of the impact of the news on the financial statements depends on the date of the amount collection.”
Oil climbs, lifted by U.S.-China trade deal hopes, OPEC cuts - Reuters
Oil climbs, lifted by U.S.-China trade deal hopes, OPEC cuts - Reuters:
Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by a potential breakthrough in the Sino-U.S. trade war and OPEC-led efforts to constrain supply, although trading was quiet as many markets were in holiday mode.
Brent crude LCOc1 was up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $67.48 a barrel by 0651 GMT.
West Texas Intermediate CLc1 was up 25 cents, also a 0.4% gain, at $61.36 a barrel.
“Oil prices continue to show year-end strength supported by a combination of definitive progress on the U.S.-China trade deal, the Dec OPEC/OPEC+ agreement, and slowing shale activity,” said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader.
Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by a potential breakthrough in the Sino-U.S. trade war and OPEC-led efforts to constrain supply, although trading was quiet as many markets were in holiday mode.
Brent crude LCOc1 was up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $67.48 a barrel by 0651 GMT.
West Texas Intermediate CLc1 was up 25 cents, also a 0.4% gain, at $61.36 a barrel.
“Oil prices continue to show year-end strength supported by a combination of definitive progress on the U.S.-China trade deal, the Dec OPEC/OPEC+ agreement, and slowing shale activity,” said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader.
MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf dips in early trade, Aramco continues retreat | Nasdaq
MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf dips in early trade, Aramco continues retreat | Nasdaq:
Major Gulf stock markets were subdued on Thursday as the absence of some foreign investors due to year-end holidays dampened trading activity.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI inched down 0.1%, with Saudi Telecom 7010.SE dropping 1%, while state-owned Aramco 2222.SE eased 0.3% to 35.1 riyals ($9.35).
On Tuesday, Aramco said Goldman Sachs may stabilise its stock by purchasing additional shares on the market. The stabilisation period will end on Jan. 9, but so far no transactions have been executed.
Yanbu National Petrochemicals 2290.SE declined 1.1% after its board proposed a lower second-half dividend this year.
On the other hand, National Commercial Bank 1180.SE edged up 0.2% after the lender raised its dividend for the second half to 1.2 riyal per share.
Major Gulf stock markets were subdued on Thursday as the absence of some foreign investors due to year-end holidays dampened trading activity.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI inched down 0.1%, with Saudi Telecom 7010.SE dropping 1%, while state-owned Aramco 2222.SE eased 0.3% to 35.1 riyals ($9.35).
On Tuesday, Aramco said Goldman Sachs may stabilise its stock by purchasing additional shares on the market. The stabilisation period will end on Jan. 9, but so far no transactions have been executed.
Yanbu National Petrochemicals 2290.SE declined 1.1% after its board proposed a lower second-half dividend this year.
On the other hand, National Commercial Bank 1180.SE edged up 0.2% after the lender raised its dividend for the second half to 1.2 riyal per share.
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