Monday 25 February 2019

How the shale revolution is reshaping world markets | Financial Times

How the shale revolution is reshaping world markets | Financial Times:

The latest short-term outlook for US oil production published by the Energy Information Administration shows output rising to 13.2m barrels a day by the end of 2020. If this is achieved (and the EIA is traditionally cautious), the US will be the largest producer in the world, by a clear margin over Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Two-thirds of that production will come from “tight oil” — that produced by fracking shale rocks. Ten years after the shale business began, the revolution is as dynamic as ever.

Commentators who said shale was a marginal short-term phenomenon that would be killed off by falling prices, or rapid reservoir depletion, have been proved wrong. What began as a gas play now supplies the US with the bulk of its oil and gas needs.

#Dubai lessor DAE annual net profit soars 116% - The National

Dubai lessor DAE annual net profit soars 116% - The National:

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, the Middle East's biggest aircraft lessor, more than doubled its annual profit due to gains from disposal of jets and a rise in revenue-generating fleet.

The Dubai lessor made $372.9 million (Dh1.37 billion) in profit attributable to shareholders in 2018, up from $172.6m the previous year, it said in a statement on Monday. Annual revenue jumped 70 per cent to $1.4bn year-on-year.

"During 2018, we recorded strong financial and operational performance across our businesses," said Firoz Tarapore, chief executive of DAE.

Azerbaijan wants stable oil price before any further output cut - The Peninsula Qatar

Azerbaijan wants stable oil price before any further output cut - The Peninsula Qatar:

Azerbaijan, the third-biggest former Soviet oil producer, wants to see stability in oil prices before deciding whether to support any extension of global cuts in crude output, the country's energy minister said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and several other exporters, including Azerbaijan, are cutting oil production jointly by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in an effort to stabilise oil markets and boost the price of crude.

The current arrangement runs until the end of June and is the subject of further discussion on whether it should be extended into the second half of 2019. For non-OPEC producers, Russia is leading the deal and making the biggest cuts.

#Qatar shares edge up to cross 10,200 level

Qatar shares edge up to cross 10,200 level:

An across-the-board buying on Monday lifted the Qatar Stock Exchange 37 points to cross the 10,200 level.

Increased buying interests from foreign and domestic institutions led the 20-stock Qatar Index to gain 0.36% to 10,226.69 points.

Gulf individuals’ weakened net profit booking also had its role in the market, whose sensitive index has registered a 0.7% decline year-to-date.

Persian Gulf Countries Are Having Their Own Oil Crisis - Bloomberg

Persian Gulf Countries Are Having Their Own Oil Crisis - Bloomberg:

Countries one through four on the list of the world’s biggest oil consumers in 2017 are pretty much who you’d expect them to be — the world’s four biggest economies. 1 No. 5 is something else: 

Saudi Arabia has just 33 million people, less than one-fourth as many as Russia, the country just below it on the list. Yes, it’s rich, but its gross domestic product ranks in the high teens worldwide, not fifth. By global standards, then, it clearly uses an inordinate amount of oil.

That amount, though, was actually down in 2017 from the year before. And therein lies a story, one that is told — quite well — in a new book titled “Energy Kingdoms: Oil and Political Survival in the Persian Gulf.” It’s by Jim Krane, a former journalist who is now a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston, and it combines a concise history of the region’s oil and gas boom and its consequences with an illuminating critique of the two main political science theories that have attempted to explain what oil riches mean for the region’s politics.

OPEC Again Faces Choice Between Trump's Wrath and Oil Slump - Bloomberg

OPEC Again Faces Choice Between Trump's Wrath and Oil Slump - Bloomberg:

It’s becoming a familiar choice for OPEC: risk the pain of an oil-price slump, or provoke the wrath of President Donald Trump.

After another warning on Twitter on Monday to avoid pushing crude higher, Saudi Arabia and fellow Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries producers again are faced with a dilemma: suffer a market rout that batters their export-dependent economies or defy the president, who could enforce legislation that shakes the group to its foundations.

OPEC and its allies started a new round of output cuts last month to avert a surplus being created by record U.S. shale-oil output and fragile global fuel demand. Crude prices have rallied more than 20 percent this year, an obstacle for Trump while he exerts diplomatic pressure on two major OPEC nations: Iran and Venezuela.

Rouhani Wants #Iran's Largest Pension Fund Manager Privatized - Bloomberg

Rouhani Wants Iran's Largest Pension Fund Manager Privatized - Bloomberg:

President Hassan Rouhani said the investment arm of Iran’s main social security provider must be privatized as part of a wider effort to scale back inefficient public-sector involvement in the economy.

“The promise I have made to the parliament and people is that next year will be the year of privatization of large companies, including Shasta,” Rouhani said on Monday, according to the state-run Iranian Labour News Agency. The company’s formal name is Social Security Investment Co. Iran’s new calendar year begins March 21.

Shasta has investments in pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, steel and cement. After international sanctions against Iran were lifted in 2016, the company said it was seeking foreign partners to help manage and expand $15 billion of assets in addition to selling stakes in almost half of 120 companies in its portfolio through public offerings or private equity investments.

#Dubai's SellAnyCar.com hires bank to advise on possible stake sale -sources | Reuters

Dubai's SellAnyCar.com hires bank to advise on possible stake sale -sources | Reuters:

Dubai’s SellAnyCar.com, an online marketplace for used cars, has hired boutique investment bank Evercore to advise the company on strategic options that may include a stake sale, sources told Reuters.

Shareholders will determine the size of the stake after proposals are submitted which are due in the next few weeks, which could be a strategic stake, said two sources, who spoke on conditions of anonymity due to commercial sensitivities.

The company is fundraising to expand and increase the number of products it offers, a third source said.

UPDATE 2- #Bahrain sees budget deficit falling to $1.6 bln in 2020 | Reuters

UPDATE 2-Bahrain sees budget deficit falling to $1.6 bln in 2020 | Reuters:

Bahrain’s cabinet on Monday approved a draft state budget for the next two years that projects a further reduction in its deficit to reach $1.63 billion by 2020 as part of a fiscal reform programme.

Bahrain, which does not have the vast oil wealth of other Gulf Arab states, last year released a plan to fix its debt-burdened finances after securing a $10 billion Gulf aid pledge. It aims to eliminate its budget deficit by 2022.

The draft forecast spending at 3.25 billion dinars ($8.62 billion) in 2019 and 3.28 billion dinars in 2020. It also announced additional public investments of 670 million dinars in 2019, with an equal amount allocated for 2020.

UPDATE 1- #Dubai's Emaar buys remaining 49 pct of website Namshi | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Dubai's Emaar buys remaining 49 pct of website Namshi | Reuters:

Dubai’s Emaar Malls on Monday bought the 49 percent of e-commerce fashion website Namshi it did not own from Global Fashion Group (GFG) for 475.5 million dirhams ($129.5 million).

The owner of Dubai Mall, the Middle East’s largest shopping centre, said it bought the stake in an all-cash transaction.

“We have ambitions throughout the region with Namshi so I think they are going to give us a geographic outreach that we do not have with the Dubai Mall today. So that is fundamental,” Emaar Malls CEO Patrick Bousquet-Chavanne told Reuters.

Oil slumps 3 percent after Trump again criticizes OPEC | Reuters

Oil slumps 3 percent after Trump again criticizes OPEC | Reuters:

Oil futures tumbled 3 percent on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump called for OPEC to “relax and take it easy” on boosting crude prices, which he said were climbing too high.

Brent crude oil futures were down $2.03 at $65.09 a barrel by 11:20 a.m. EST (1620 GMT). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.73 to $55.53 a barrel.

“Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike - fragile!” Trump tweeted, his latest in a series of tweets or comments made regarding oil prices since April 2018.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Blue-chip banks pressure Saudi, property stocks impede Dubai | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Blue-chip banks pressure Saudi, property stocks impede Dubai | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia's stock market fell on Monday as most of its blue-chip bank shares slid, while Dubai snapped an eight-day winning streak, pulled down by its real estate stocks.

Saudi Arabia's index decreased 0.9 percent with Al Rajhi Bank falling 0.6 percent and Riyad Bank losing 3.1 percent.

The Saudi market is consolidating after a strong rally last month due to an increase in foreign fund flows ahead of the market's inclusion in key emerging market benchmarks later this year. The index is up nearly 8 percent year to date.

First Abu Dhabi Bank plans to issue $2 to $4 bln in bonds in 2019- exec | ZAWYA MENA Edition

First Abu Dhabi Bank plans to issue $2 to $4 bln in bonds in 2019- exec | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

First Abu Dhabi Bank, the biggest lender in the United Arab Emirates, plans to issue $2 billion to $4 billion in bonds in 2019, the group chief financial officer said on Monday.

James Burdett told reporters that the bank expects high single-digit loan growth in 2019, while the bank's profit will be in the mid-single digit range after it reported a 10 percent rise in annual profit in 2018.

#UAE's Gulf Capital plans five private equity deals in 2019- CEO | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE's Gulf Capital plans five private equity deals in 2019- CEO | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Abu Dhabi-based buyout firm Gulf Capital is planning a least five new private equity deals this year, with two new deals to be announced in the next two months, its chief executive said.

With $3 billion in assets under management, Gulf Capital is one of the largest private equity players in the Middle East North Africa region.

“We will soon announce an exit transaction in healthcare which we are working on… probably in two months,” Karim El-Solh, CEO of Gulf Capital, told Zawya at the sidelines of a conference in Abu Dhabi last week.

COLUMN-Hedge funds bet cautiously on even higher oil prices: Kemp | Reuters

COLUMN-Hedge funds bet cautiously on even higher oil prices: Kemp | Reuters:

Hedge funds added more bullish positions in crude and fuels in the most recent week in the expectation that positive trade talks between the United States and China would keep the global economy expanding.

Saudi Arabia’s substantial output cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela also are restricting crude supplies and helping eliminate a previously expected surplus in the market in 2019.

Hedge funds and other money managers were net buyers of Brent crude futures and options equivalent to 9 million barrels in the week to Feb. 19, data from ICE Futures Europe showed.

Evening Standard investor unveiled as #Saudi businessman | Media | The Guardian

Evening Standard investor unveiled as Saudi businessman | Media | The Guardian:

The mysterious off-shore purchaser of a stake in the Evening Standard newspaper has been unveiled as a Saudi businessman with ties to the country’s state-owned bank.

Sultan Mohamed Abuljadayel bought a third of the news outlet’s parent company from Evgeny Lebedev, son of a Russia oligarch, for £25m at the end of last year, according to the FT. A spokesperson for the Evening Standard did not dispute that Abuljadayel was behind the purchase, which was made through a company registered in the Cayman Islands.

The confirmation of Saudi investment in London’s main newspaper, edited by the former Conservative chancellor George Osborne and distributes 860,000 copies a day for free across the capital, comes as scrutiny is growing of Middle Eastern investments in British media outlets.

Foreigners Slow #Saudi Share Spree Even as Index Upgrade Nears - Bloomberg

Foreigners Slow Saudi Share Spree Even as Index Upgrade Nears - Bloomberg:

Foreign investors are slowing the pace at which they are buying Saudi stocks, even as the kingdom’s inclusion in major emerging-markets benchmarks lies just around the corner.

Foreign investors were net buyers of about 443 million riyals ($118 million) in Saudi shares last week, a drop of 47 percent from the previous five days and the second straight week of slower purchases. Analysts and traders are closely monitoring the appetite for the country’s shares as they are about to begin to be included in emerging-market benchmarks compiled by FTSE Russell and MSCI Inc. next month and in June, respectively.

As investors anticipate purchases before the upgrades, some emerging-markets money managers view Saudi stock valuations as too high compared with the category they’re about to join. In January, the Tadawul All Share Index reached the most expensive level relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since 2015, when measured using estimated price-to-earnings in the next 12 months.

Saudi Bonds Look Fairly Priced, Emirates NBD's Yadav Says – Bloomberg

Saudi Bonds Look Fairly Priced, Emirates NBD's Yadav Says – Bloomberg:

Anita Yadav, the head of fixed-income research at Emirates NBD PJSC, talks about Oman and Saudi Arabian bonds. She speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg)

Oil dips amid record U.S. exports, but trade talk hopes offer some support | Reuters

Oil dips amid record U.S. exports, but trade talk hopes offer some support | Reuters:

Oil prices dipped on Monday, dragged down by plentiful supply as U.S. exports soar and compete with traditional producers from the Middle East in key markets such as Asia.

But markets were supported by optimism that Washington and Beijing would soon resolve a series of trade disputes that have dented global economic growth, analysts said.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $66.94 a barrel at 0747 GMT, down 18 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. They ended Friday little changed after touching their highest since Nov. 16 at $67.73 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs says near-term oil view modestly bullish on tightening market | Reuters

Goldman Sachs says near-term oil view modestly bullish on tightening market | Reuters:

The near-term outlook for oil is modestly bullish as the market continues to tighten significantly, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, helped by the impact of output cuts by producers in the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC) and Russia. 


The upside potential for benchmark Brent crude prices exceeds the near-term outlook of $67.50/bbl and could easily trade between $70 and $75 per barrel, the U.S. bank said in a research note.

OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed in December to cut oil production steeply under a global supply deal to prevent a glut this year.

Mideast Stocks: Real estate halts #Dubai's momentum, banks pressure #Saudi | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Real estate halts Dubai's momentum, banks pressure Saudi | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Dubai's stock market inched down in early trading on Monday, ending an eight day winning streak, while Saudi Arabia was pulled down by its banks.

The Dubai index edged 0.1 percent lower, with Emaar Malls shedding 2.2 percent and Aramex declining 1.8 percent.

Dubai snapped its longest stretch of gains since Jan 2018, mainly triggered by strong fourth-quarter earnings from real estate firms.