#Bahrain’s Alba to buy Europe’s biggest aluminium smelter

Bahrain’s Alba to buy Europe’s biggest aluminium smelter

Aluminium Bahrain has agreed to buy Europe’s biggest smelter in northern France, pledging to protect jobs at the site once owned by UK metals tycoon Sanjeev Gupta and signalling that it may allow the French government to take a stake.  

The European metals sector has been roiled by cheaper Chinese competition and tariff disputes between Europe and the US, raising fears for its prospects even as the EU brings in a carbon border tax to help fend off competition.  

Aluminium Bahrain, which already owns the world’s biggest smelter outside China and is majority owned by the Gulf island nation’s sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat, will buy Aluminium Dunkerque from American Industrial Partners, its owner since 2021.  

The deal, terms of which have not been disclosed, is not finalised and could yet involve state-owned investment bank Bpifrance taking a stake, Alba and Aluminium Dunkerque said on Monday.

“Alba is open to opening up the capital to Bpifrance . . . to aid the long-term development of Aluminium Dunkerque,” the companies said in a joint statement, adding that talks were ongoing. 

The French economy ministry said it would be “particularly vigilant over preserving jobs and strategic industrial capacities” at the site, which employs 750 people and produces 300,000 tonnes of aluminium a year. 

People close to the deal said the priority after several years of uncertainty for the smelter was to find a long-term owner.

The site is “ideally positioned to make the most of structural supply deficits in Europe”, the companies said, meaning more European aluminium needs could be filled locally. Demand for “aluminium produced in a sustainable way” should also help the business, they added.

AIP acquired Aluminium Dunkerque from beleaguered metals magnate Sanjeev Gupta, and the private equity group cut debt and turned earnings around. Net profit rose from €49mn in 2021 to €186mn in 2024, according to the latest available accounts.   

Pressure from Chinese competition and the huge investment costs needed to make steel and aluminium production cleaner in Europe have pushed some manufacturers in the region to the brink.

Governments are trying to mitigate any fallout for jobs and preserve local industries, all the more so amid an EU drive spearheaded by France to boost homegrown manufacturing in the face of Chinese imports. 

The Aluminium Dunkerque takeover comes as unions fret over the future of ArcelorMittal’s activities in northern France, despite the company’s pledges to overhaul its steel site in Dunkirk with an electric arc furnace and invest in activities there.

The French government is also seeking damages from UK private equity firm Greybull, alleging it was responsible for more than 500 jobs lost at the Novasco steel site it formerly owned.

JPMorgan trims GCC non-oil growth forecasts on Middle East conflict | Reuters

JPMorgan trims GCC non-oil growth forecasts on Middle East conflict | Reuters

JPMorgan trimmed its outlook for non-oil growth for economies across the Gulf region this year following the widening Iran conflict over the weekend, warning that there was a risk of bigger revisions ahead.

The Wall Street bank cut non-oil growth by 0.3 percentage points across the bloc, with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates seeing the biggest reduction, at 0.5 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively.

"Risks are elevated across multiple fronts and will depend heavily on the conflict’s outcomes," JPMorgan analysts said.

The bank also said it no longer expected Turkey's central bank to cut interest rates at its March 12 meeting and revised its end-2026 policy rate forecast to 31% from 30%, while inflation was now expected to stand at 25% rather than 24% at that point.

"With Israel directly involved in the current conflict, it is probably fair to assume the BOI (Bank of Israel) will not cut in March either," JPMorgan said.

Most Gulf markets fall as Iran retaliates, #UAE suspends trading | Reuters

Most Gulf markets fall as Iran retaliates, UAE suspends trading | Reuters

Qatar's stock market plunged on Monday while the UAE suspended trading for two days, an early sign of economic disruption across the region as the Gulf grapples with Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes.

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Saturday - and Iranian retaliation - sent shockwaves worldwide through sectors from shipping to air travel to oil, amid warnings of rising energy costs and disruption to business in the Gulf, a strategic waterway and global trade hub.

Israel has continued airstrikes on Iran and expanded its assault to include attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon on Monday. Tehran said it had launched a new wave of missiles after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The UAE Capital Markets Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain shut on March 2 and March 3, citing its supervisory and regulatory role over the country's capital markets.

In Qatar, the benchmark index (.QSI), opens new tab - which was closed for a bank holiday on Sunday - dropped 4.3%, its biggest fall since March 2020. The country's markets are open from Sunday to Thursday. The Gulf's biggest lender by assets, Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab, fell 4.8% - marking its biggest intraday fall since December 2022.

Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab declined 4.6%. HSBC cut its target price for the Sharia-compliant lender to 28.4 riyals ($7.79) from 29.4 riyals.

Elsewhere, maritime and logistics company Qatar Navigation (QNNC.QA), opens new tab tumbled 5.6% and LNG shipping company Qatar Gas Transport (QGTS.QA), opens new tab retreated 6.7%.

Kuwait's Index (.BKP), opens new tab, which resumed trading after suspension on Sunday citing "exceptional circumstances", trimmed early losses to 1.9% from 3.6%, with National Bank Of Kuwait (NBKK.KW), opens new tab losing 3.7%.

Market sentiment is likely to remain highly sensitive to regional geopolitical developments, with tensions driving near-term price moves. However, strong regional fundamentals and the relatively limited impact seen over the weekend may help cushion losses and cap downside, said Daniel Takieddine Co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab finished flat in a choppy trade, a day after falling more than 2%.

Among fallers, budget airline flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab tumbled 6.4%, to become the heaviest faller on the index.

However, oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab advanced 1.5%, extending gains from the previous session, when it rose 3.4%.

Oil prices jumped 7% to their highest levels in months on Monday as Iran and Israel stepped up attacks in the Middle East, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region.

Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas on Monday and Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike, Reuters reported citing a source, as Israeli and U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation triggered precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.

Saudi stocks stabilized and may recover, supported by the energy sector as oil prices rise, with other sectors potentially remaining resilient. A sharper rebound - and spillover gains across the region - would be more likely if geopolitical risks ease quickly and the physical impact stays limited, said Takieddine.

Muscat's index (.MSX30), opens new tab climbed 1.1%, while Bahrain stocks (.BAX), opens new tab eased 0.2%.

The decline could persist if regional tensions intensify. However, because the sell-off is largely driven by geopolitical risk, markets could rebound quickly if tensions ease, said Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Director at Tickmill.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab fell 0.6%.