Abu Dhabi, Dubai Markets Shut March 2-3 Following Iran Strikes in Gulf - Bloomberg
The United Arab Emirates said its two key markets will close for two days of the week, avoiding a possible meltdown after the Gulf country was repeatedly hit as Iran retaliated against US-Israeli airstrikes.
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market will be closed on March 2 and March 3, the UAE Capital Market Authority said in an emailed statement. “The Authority will continue to monitor developments in the region and assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary,” it added.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi have faced hundreds of missiles and drone attacks from Iran, which has been responding to an onslaught from the US and Israel, since Saturday morning. Most have been intercepted and there are few reports of casualties and damage to multiple areas across both cities. But the attacks are causing panic among residents and pose a huge threat to the UAE’s economy and status as a stable financial, logistics and tourism hub.
“US-Israel attacks on Iran threaten demand shocks for UAE property sales, risking absorption of 350,000 units in new supply, as well as 120 million footfalls into Dubai Mall and tourism into retail and hospitality,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Edmond Christou and Salome Skhirtladze wrote in a note. “UAE developers, such as Emaar, are vulnerable as are UAE banks with greater cyclical exposure.”
The UAE stock exchanges’ market capitalization stands at $1.1 trillion, making it the 19th largest in the world. It holds a 1.4% weight on MSCI Inc.’s emerging markets benchmark.
The market closures are unusual in the country. Outside regularly-scheduled holidays, UAE bourses are typically shuttered only during periods of national mourning, such as one that followed the death of President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan in May 2022.
Still, it’s not uncommon for countries to shut their stock markets during times of uncertainty and turmoil. Among recent examples, Turkey suspended trading for a week after an earthquake in 2023 and the market soared upon reopening. Russia halted its market for about a month in 2022 after its invasion of Ukraine. In Greece, the Athens Stock Exchange shut in 2015 for five weeks during the sovereign debt crisis and plunged when trading resumed.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, the Kuwait Capital Markets Authority said the country’s stock exchange will resume trading on March 2 after halting operations on Sunday.
Sunday, 1 March 2026
#Iran Strikes: Oil Prices Will Get Nasty But Historic Shock Is Unlikely - Bloomberg
Iran Strikes: Oil Prices Will Get Nasty But Historic Shock Is Unlikely - Bloomberg
One can look at oil and the Middle East through two lenses. Magnify every detail from the attacks on Iran and its responses and a chaotic picture emerges. When the market reopens on Sunday night, oil prices are likely to jump 10%-15% as a result. But seen from a wider angle — looking broadly at the global economy — the energy picture does not appear as scary, even if Brent crude does jump to, say, $80-plus a barrel.
First, an obvious disclaimer. The situation is fluid, and for the oil market everything depends on how Tehran responds to the US-Israeli strikes in the coming hours. But after the first day of hostilities we can draw a few tentative conclusions based on the unlikelihood of the type of full-blown oil shock we’ve seen in the past, and the decent supply of barrels of oil currently available. The biggest market fear is the targeting of energy infrastructure (or not) by both sides, and the enforced closure of tanker routes. Neither has happened. Yet.
Put the war and its likely geopolitical impact into historical context, and you’d be forgiven for being anxious. The Americans and Israelis launched coordinated air strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of other senior officials. Iran responded with an unprecedented volley of missiles and drones, hitting Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The Islamic Republic is fighting for its own survival. Cornered, Tehran can still weaponize oil as its last line of defense. It’s a huge risk.
With a different economic backdrop, this wouldn’t just be the mother of all oil shocks; it would be the rest of the family, too. It’s Hollywood stuff that only a few years ago would have led to predictions of oil zooming past its 2008 high on the way to $200 a barrel. That would have put the global economy on its knees, with runaway inflation likely forcing central bankers to hike interest rates and potentially crashing the financial markets.
For sure, the oil price is going to spike. But even the most bullish traders are talking about perhaps reaching $100, well below the $139 seen in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, and 2008’s all-timer of $147.50. Using that wide-angle lens, the Middle East isn’t about to trigger an oil shock. It may be a wobble, perhaps a tremor, it may even get nasty, but the economy isn’t heading into recession a la 1973-74 after the first oil crisis, or 1990-91 after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The main reason for this is the one that will have emboldened Trump and his military strategists: The US shale revolution, which hands the US a much stronger hand in controlling prices.
And despite fears that Iran could set the Middle East’s energy industry on fire, targeting oilfields, refineries and export terminals, Tehran hasn’t yet turned oil into a weapon. Neither have Israel and the US targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure. The Iranian retaliation has been loud, but it appears largely ineffective so far. The US has said three service members were killed and five “seriously wounded.” The damage elsewhere in the Gulf is relatively minor.
For energy markets, the biggest worry is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water to the south of Iran that’s a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil. Shipping traffic has fallen sharply, although a handful of tankers passed through overnight without incident. Despite wild claims on social media, Iran has not closed the strait.
Any stoppages are being self-imposed by the shipping and oil industries, in part responding to some insurers withdrawing coverage and in part at the request of the US Navy in the first hours of the conflict. There’s a bit of a buffer, as oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, and even Iran, increased loadings in the days running up to the attacks. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf were nearly 10% higher in February than the month before. The bulk of that has already left the region. Still, unless Washington quickly convinces shipping firms that the strait is safe, the self-imposed pause would turn into real disruption.
In a social-media video, President Donald Trump promised to “annihilate” the Iranian navy, an indication of the White House’s maritime priorities. The clock is ticking, and Hormuz will make or break this crisis. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, put it well by saying, “Markets had been well supplied to date.” Those words “to date” are key. If oil prices get ugly, Trump may create an off-ramp for himself. Having killed Khamenei, he can claim “mission accomplished” and move on.
Thankfully, the physical oil market entered the crisis weak in terms of pricing pressure. For months supply has run ahead of demand, allowing inventories to slowly refill, albeit from a low level. Now the industry is heading into a couple of months of weak demand as the northern hemisphere emerges from winter.
For the last two years, China, the biggest buyer of Middle Eastern crude, has been building a massive strategic petroleum reserve, which could limit the wider market disruption. Iranian oil is sold almost exclusively to Chinese refineries. If needed, Western nations can tap their reserves as well.
And while the physical market has been weak, the financial oil market has been bullish, snapping up oil in the expectation of rising prices. A year ago, Israel and America’s 12-Day War on Iran wrongfooted many traders, triggering a wave of buying that caused crude prices to leap. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years. As such, oil traders are better prepared to digest the crisis.
The OPEC+ oil cartel can help cushion some of the impact, but more with words than barrels. On Sunday, the group announced a production increase for April, and hinted more to come. Still, unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, all the incremental barrels will be trapped. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that let them bypass the strait, partly anyway. If the conflict intensifies, they will highlight that alternative.
One of the world’s chief oil bulls, of course, resides in the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin will benefit from the war via loftier oil prices and greater demand for his own sanctioned crude. Barely hiding his glee, Russia envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted on social media on Saturday: “$100+ a barrel soon.” He may be a tad too bullish, but directionally he’s not wrong. Perhaps more important, Russia may find it easier to sell in the black market the millions of barrels of oil it has sitting in storage. If the White House turns a blind eye, India may buy them. That is hardly ideal for anyone trying to counter Putin’s belligerence, but it would ease any global crude shortage linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
One can look at oil and the Middle East through two lenses. Magnify every detail from the attacks on Iran and its responses and a chaotic picture emerges. When the market reopens on Sunday night, oil prices are likely to jump 10%-15% as a result. But seen from a wider angle — looking broadly at the global economy — the energy picture does not appear as scary, even if Brent crude does jump to, say, $80-plus a barrel.
First, an obvious disclaimer. The situation is fluid, and for the oil market everything depends on how Tehran responds to the US-Israeli strikes in the coming hours. But after the first day of hostilities we can draw a few tentative conclusions based on the unlikelihood of the type of full-blown oil shock we’ve seen in the past, and the decent supply of barrels of oil currently available. The biggest market fear is the targeting of energy infrastructure (or not) by both sides, and the enforced closure of tanker routes. Neither has happened. Yet.
Put the war and its likely geopolitical impact into historical context, and you’d be forgiven for being anxious. The Americans and Israelis launched coordinated air strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of other senior officials. Iran responded with an unprecedented volley of missiles and drones, hitting Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The Islamic Republic is fighting for its own survival. Cornered, Tehran can still weaponize oil as its last line of defense. It’s a huge risk.
With a different economic backdrop, this wouldn’t just be the mother of all oil shocks; it would be the rest of the family, too. It’s Hollywood stuff that only a few years ago would have led to predictions of oil zooming past its 2008 high on the way to $200 a barrel. That would have put the global economy on its knees, with runaway inflation likely forcing central bankers to hike interest rates and potentially crashing the financial markets.
For sure, the oil price is going to spike. But even the most bullish traders are talking about perhaps reaching $100, well below the $139 seen in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, and 2008’s all-timer of $147.50. Using that wide-angle lens, the Middle East isn’t about to trigger an oil shock. It may be a wobble, perhaps a tremor, it may even get nasty, but the economy isn’t heading into recession a la 1973-74 after the first oil crisis, or 1990-91 after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The main reason for this is the one that will have emboldened Trump and his military strategists: The US shale revolution, which hands the US a much stronger hand in controlling prices.
And despite fears that Iran could set the Middle East’s energy industry on fire, targeting oilfields, refineries and export terminals, Tehran hasn’t yet turned oil into a weapon. Neither have Israel and the US targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure. The Iranian retaliation has been loud, but it appears largely ineffective so far. The US has said three service members were killed and five “seriously wounded.” The damage elsewhere in the Gulf is relatively minor.
For energy markets, the biggest worry is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water to the south of Iran that’s a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil. Shipping traffic has fallen sharply, although a handful of tankers passed through overnight without incident. Despite wild claims on social media, Iran has not closed the strait.
Any stoppages are being self-imposed by the shipping and oil industries, in part responding to some insurers withdrawing coverage and in part at the request of the US Navy in the first hours of the conflict. There’s a bit of a buffer, as oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, and even Iran, increased loadings in the days running up to the attacks. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf were nearly 10% higher in February than the month before. The bulk of that has already left the region. Still, unless Washington quickly convinces shipping firms that the strait is safe, the self-imposed pause would turn into real disruption.
In a social-media video, President Donald Trump promised to “annihilate” the Iranian navy, an indication of the White House’s maritime priorities. The clock is ticking, and Hormuz will make or break this crisis. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, put it well by saying, “Markets had been well supplied to date.” Those words “to date” are key. If oil prices get ugly, Trump may create an off-ramp for himself. Having killed Khamenei, he can claim “mission accomplished” and move on.
Thankfully, the physical oil market entered the crisis weak in terms of pricing pressure. For months supply has run ahead of demand, allowing inventories to slowly refill, albeit from a low level. Now the industry is heading into a couple of months of weak demand as the northern hemisphere emerges from winter.
For the last two years, China, the biggest buyer of Middle Eastern crude, has been building a massive strategic petroleum reserve, which could limit the wider market disruption. Iranian oil is sold almost exclusively to Chinese refineries. If needed, Western nations can tap their reserves as well.
And while the physical market has been weak, the financial oil market has been bullish, snapping up oil in the expectation of rising prices. A year ago, Israel and America’s 12-Day War on Iran wrongfooted many traders, triggering a wave of buying that caused crude prices to leap. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years. As such, oil traders are better prepared to digest the crisis.
The OPEC+ oil cartel can help cushion some of the impact, but more with words than barrels. On Sunday, the group announced a production increase for April, and hinted more to come. Still, unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, all the incremental barrels will be trapped. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that let them bypass the strait, partly anyway. If the conflict intensifies, they will highlight that alternative.
One of the world’s chief oil bulls, of course, resides in the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin will benefit from the war via loftier oil prices and greater demand for his own sanctioned crude. Barely hiding his glee, Russia envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted on social media on Saturday: “$100+ a barrel soon.” He may be a tad too bullish, but directionally he’s not wrong. Perhaps more important, Russia may find it easier to sell in the black market the millions of barrels of oil it has sitting in storage. If the White House turns a blind eye, India may buy them. That is hardly ideal for anyone trying to counter Putin’s belligerence, but it would ease any global crude shortage linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
#Dubai gold flows curbed as flights halted due to US-Israeli strikes on Iran | Reuters
Dubai gold flows curbed as flights halted due to US-Israeli strikes on Iran | Reuters
Physical gold flows to and from Dubai's bullion trading hub will be severely curbed in coming days as airlines cancel flights due to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation, three metals industry sources said.
Dubai's trading hub is a major gold supplier to Switzerland, Hong Kong and India, a major consumer. Gold travels by plane due to security and insurance issues stemming from its value-to-weight ratio.
"It looks like most if not all airlines have cancelled their flights, so not going to be any gold moving for a couple of days," one of the sources said.
The impact on the global supply will depend on the length of disruption, the sources said. They declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to the press.
Spot gold prices closed on Friday up 1.7% at $5,277 per troy ounce, their highest since January 30, with many analysts expecting safe-haven inflows into bullion once the market opens on Monday. Gold's record high was $5,594.82 on January 29.
The market on Monday is likely to be dominated by financial flows on markets in Shanghai, London and New York, another source said.
"The major locations - China, India, New York, London and Zurich - are still okay," a precious metals trader said.
Physical gold flows to and from Dubai's bullion trading hub will be severely curbed in coming days as airlines cancel flights due to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation, three metals industry sources said.
Dubai's trading hub is a major gold supplier to Switzerland, Hong Kong and India, a major consumer. Gold travels by plane due to security and insurance issues stemming from its value-to-weight ratio.
"It looks like most if not all airlines have cancelled their flights, so not going to be any gold moving for a couple of days," one of the sources said.
The impact on the global supply will depend on the length of disruption, the sources said. They declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to the press.
Spot gold prices closed on Friday up 1.7% at $5,277 per troy ounce, their highest since January 30, with many analysts expecting safe-haven inflows into bullion once the market opens on Monday. Gold's record high was $5,594.82 on January 29.
The market on Monday is likely to be dominated by financial flows on markets in Shanghai, London and New York, another source said.
"The major locations - China, India, New York, London and Zurich - are still okay," a precious metals trader said.
Gulf stocks slide, #Kuwait suspends trading as Iran responds to US, Israeli attacks | Reuters
Gulf stocks slide, Kuwait suspends trading as Iran responds to US, Israeli attacks | Reuters
Most Gulf equities fell on Sunday and Boursa Kuwait suspended trading after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted retaliatory attacks across nearby U.S. targets in Gulf cities, fanning fears of prolonged regional instability.
In a rare move, Boursa Kuwait (.BKP), opens new tab suspended trade until further notice citing the "exceptional circumstances" the country is facing.
In Saudi Arabia, the region's biggest stock market, the benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab pared its losses to close 2.2% lower compared with a 4.6% drop early in the session.
Decliners included Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab at 3% and budget airline flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab at 6.9%, its biggest intraday fall since its IPO in June last year.
Elsewhere, Jabal Omar Development (4250.SE), opens new tab - which runs the Jabal Omar complex of hotels and property within walking distance of the Grand Mosque in the Muslim holy city of Mecca - was down 2.6%. Saudi shipping firm Bahri (4030.SE), opens new tab declined 4.2%.
Oil behemoth Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab, however, advanced 3.4%, registering its biggest intraday gain in over four months amid expectations of rising oil prices.
The kingdom on Saturday said Iran had attacked Riyadh and the country's eastern region.
"While higher oil prices provide a near-term fiscal cushion for regional governments, the more material concern is the risk of affected shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which would have broader implications for energy flows and trade."
Gulf stock markets face heightened correction risk and volatility as geopolitical tension drives a risk-off mood, pressuring prices and expectations, said XTB MENA senior market analyst Hani Abuagla.
Investors will track regional developments and any further escalation or real-economy damage could deepen the selloff, he said.
The Muscat stock index (.MSX30), opens new tab trimmed its decline to 1.4% after sliding more than 3% in a broad-based selloff.
Bahrain's stock index (.BAX), opens new tab retreated 1%, while Qatar's stock exchange was closed for a bank holiday.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab settled 2.5% down, after it plunged 5.5% in early trade.
Disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remains a key risk, weighing on sentiment and disrupting normal operations across a range of sectors, Abuagla said.
Witnesses reported blasts in the Dubai area and over Doha for a second day on Sunday, as Iran's retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei forced major regional airports including Dubai to shut, in one of the biggest disruptions to global aviation in years.
Trading in Middle East markets is an early indicator of how investors measure any impact on assets from oil to safe-haven currencies and gold. Analysts at Barclays raised their Brent crude forecast to about $100 a barrel on Saturday from an earlier estimate of $80.
Trading in Middle East markets is an early indicator of how investors measure any impact on assets from oil to safe-haven currencies and gold. Analysts at Barclays raised their Brent crude forecast to about $100 a barrel on Saturday from an earlier estimate of $80.
In a rare move, Boursa Kuwait (.BKP), opens new tab suspended trade until further notice citing the "exceptional circumstances" the country is facing.
In Saudi Arabia, the region's biggest stock market, the benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab pared its losses to close 2.2% lower compared with a 4.6% drop early in the session.
Decliners included Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab at 3% and budget airline flynas (4264.SE), opens new tab at 6.9%, its biggest intraday fall since its IPO in June last year.
Elsewhere, Jabal Omar Development (4250.SE), opens new tab - which runs the Jabal Omar complex of hotels and property within walking distance of the Grand Mosque in the Muslim holy city of Mecca - was down 2.6%. Saudi shipping firm Bahri (4030.SE), opens new tab declined 4.2%.
Oil behemoth Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab, however, advanced 3.4%, registering its biggest intraday gain in over four months amid expectations of rising oil prices.
The kingdom on Saturday said Iran had attacked Riyadh and the country's eastern region.
"GCC markets are likely to remain under pressure as investors price in a higher and potentially prolonged geopolitical risk premium following the recent escalation in the region," said Tahir Abbas, head of research at Oman's Ubhar Capital.
"While higher oil prices provide a near-term fiscal cushion for regional governments, the more material concern is the risk of affected shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which would have broader implications for energy flows and trade."
Gulf stock markets face heightened correction risk and volatility as geopolitical tension drives a risk-off mood, pressuring prices and expectations, said XTB MENA senior market analyst Hani Abuagla.
Investors will track regional developments and any further escalation or real-economy damage could deepen the selloff, he said.
The Muscat stock index (.MSX30), opens new tab trimmed its decline to 1.4% after sliding more than 3% in a broad-based selloff.
Bahrain's stock index (.BAX), opens new tab retreated 1%, while Qatar's stock exchange was closed for a bank holiday.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab settled 2.5% down, after it plunged 5.5% in early trade.
Disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remains a key risk, weighing on sentiment and disrupting normal operations across a range of sectors, Abuagla said.
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