Tuesday 16 August 2022

Oil falls to 6-mth low on economic data, awaits news of Iran nuclear deal | Reuters

Oil falls to 6-mth low on economic data, awaits news of Iran nuclear deal | Reuters

Oil prices fell about 3% on Tuesday to their lowest since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine as economic data spurred concerns about a potential global recession, while the market awaited clarity on talks to revive a deal that could allow more Iranian oil exports.

Brent crude futures fell $2.76, or 2.9%, to settle at $92.34 a barrel. The contract hit a session low of $91.71 per barrel, the lowest since Feb. 18.

West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) shed $2.88, or 3.2%, to settle at $86.53 a barrel. The benchmark fell to a session low of $85.73 per barrel, lowest since Jan. 26.

The contracts fell about 3% in their previous sessions.

The European Union is assessing Iran's response to what the bloc has called its "final" proposal to save a 2015 nuclear deal, and consulting with the United States, an EU spokesperson said on Tuesday. read more

What Would an Iran Deal Mean for Oil Markets? - Bloomberg

What Would an Iran Deal Mean for Oil Markets? - Bloomberg


A last-ditch attempt by Europe to revive the Iranian nuclear deal has stoked speculation that millions of barrels of oil are set to flood world markets. The return could be swift if Tehran’s previous comeback is any guide.

Should an agreement materialize, Iran could ramp up sales within months, raising supply by hundreds of thousands of barrels a day before the end of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. That would help relieve a tight global market, which has been roiled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

When sanctions were eased following the 2015 deal, Iran’s crude output was restored more quickly and more completely than analysts had predicted. With no evidence of damage to oil fields or facilities, that feat may be repeated. The Persian Gulf nation also has an estimated 100 million barrels of crude and condensate in storage that can be released to the market almost immediately.

#SaudiArabia, #UAE: Great Treasury Sell-Off by Gulf Petrostates May Just Be Over - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia, UAE: Great Treasury Sell-Off by Gulf Petrostates May Just Be Over - Bloomberg


Two of the richest oil economies are wading back into the world’s most important bond market for the first time in months.

Boasting a windfall oil revenue estimated at $818 billion this year alone, the oil-exporting nations of the Middle East like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates largely held out from buying US Treasuries through much of the global rally in crude prices.

The long period of restraint ended in June, the latest month for which figures are available. Saudi Arabia increased its stockpile by $4.5 billion -- the most since August 2020 -- to just over $119 billion, according to Treasury Department data. It’s still near the lowest level since 2017.

The neighboring UAE, whose holdings have dropped by more than a third since June 2021, added $1.6 billion. For the January-June period, foreign investors bought the most on data going back to 1977.


SICO maintains 'buy' ratings on Emaar and Emaar Development

SICO maintains 'buy' ratings on Emaar and Emaar Development

Bahrain-based SICO has maintained 'buy' ratings on both Emaar and Emaar Development with target prices of AED 7.1 and AED 6.0 per share respectively, on attractive valuations.

Emaar's portfolio is positioned for double digit growth over FY2021 to 2024, while Emaar Development is likely to significantly improve its margin and cash flow profile, analyst Indarpreet Singh said in the report.

Dubai real estate is well placed to record growth in FY2022 led by visa liberalisation, economic and social reforms, uptick in new business registrations and relocations by high-net- worth individuals, it added.

Emaar Development reported robust Q2-2022 performance with property sales of AED 8.4 billion and a QoQ expansion in gross margins to around 43%," ahead of our expectation".

Emaar’s recurring revenue also remained healthy driven by a 15% QoQ growth in retail operations led by the commencement of Dubai Hills Mall, an increase in blended occupancy to 94%, and record tenant sales at the Dubai Mall.

Emaar Development and Emaar stocks currently trade at a P/B of 1x and 0.7x respectively, with both stocks trading below regional peers and their own long-term averages, according to SICO. "In the midst of a strong real estate upcycle and acceleration in Emaar’s recurring portfolio, we view these valuations as attractive."

Emaar closed over 3% higher at AED5.85 while Emaar Development stock closed a shade higher at AED4.48 on Dubai Financial Market on Tuesday.

Strong #Israel GDP and inflation data seen prompting 75 bps rate hike | Reuters

Strong Israel GDP and inflation data seen prompting 75 bps rate hike | Reuters

A sharp rebound in Israel's economic activity and a jump in annual inflation have made a 0.75-point interest rate increase more likely next week, analysts said on Tuesday.

The central bank had looked headed for a second straight half-point move at its upcoming Aug. 22 policy meeting, but data showed stronger than expected economic growth in the second quarter a day after a further uptick in prices.

"Economic activity remains strong and alongside the red-hot inflation figures for July, the risks are skewed to a 75 basis point rate hike," said Liam Peach, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

GDP grew an annualised 6.8% in the second quarter from the first quarter, versus an expected 2.8% in a Reuters poll and after a revised downward contraction of 2.7% in the prior three months.

Gulf bourses end mixed amid volatile oil prices | Reuters

Gulf bourses end mixed amid volatile oil prices | Reuters


Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Tuesday as oil prices were volatile and corporate news drove trading in some stocks.

Crude prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, rose by about 1%, erasing earlier losses, as the market awaited clarity on talks to revive a deal that could allow more Iranian oil exports, and as bleak economic data from top crude buyer China limited gains.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) gave up early gains to finish flat.

The kingdom's consumer price index rose 2.7% in July from a year earlier, government data showed on Monday, accelerating from a 2.3% pace in June. read more

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI) dropped 0.2%, hit by a 1.1% fall in conglomerate International Holding Co (IHC) (IHC.AD) as investors continued to lock in profits.

Shares of IHC, the most valuable company on the Abu Dhabi bourse with a market capitalisation of around $167 billion, have risen over 120% so far this year.

IHC, which straddles sectors from healthcare to real estate to IT and utilities, made 70 acquisitions at a total value of 10 billion dirhams ($2.72 billion) this year.

The Qatari benchmark (.QSI) added 0.4%, with petrochemical maker Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA) advancing 1.2%.

The Qatari stock market was underpinned by a rise in natural gas prices, said Fadi Reyad, Market Analyst at CAPEX.com MENA.

"The high price level could help the market return to an upward trend."

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI) reversed early losses to close 0.5% higher, buoyed by a 3.2% rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU).

The board of Emaar Properties, which owns the Dubai Mall, will meet on Thursday to discuss the sale of its e-commerce fashion business, the company said on Monday. read more

The meeting will be held a week after Emaar announced a $2 billion cash and stock buyout of a joint venture partner in one of its real estate projects.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) fell 0.7%, dragged down by a 1.3% drop in top lender Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA).


Enlight Plans Mideast Renewable Energy Venture with NewMed - Bloomberg

Enlight Plans Mideast Renewable Energy Venture with NewMed - Bloomberg

Israeli companies Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd. and natural gas producer NewMed Energy LP plan to jointly develop renewable energy projects in North Africa and the Middle East, including in Saudi Arabia and Oman, countries with which Israel has no official ties.

“The venture will exploit what we see as a very large opportunity in the region that began with natural gas, a development led to a large extent by NewMed,” Enlight Chief Executive Officer Gilad Yavetz told journalists in a conference call. The companies aim to combine NewMed’s ties in the region with Enlight’s green-energy expertise.

He added that the venture will aim for a market that includes Saudi Arabia, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman as well as Jordan and Egypt, where NewMed -- formerly known as Delek Drilling LP -- is already an energy provider.

Over the past decades, Israel has used its technical know-how to forge and strengthen diplomatic relations, starting with drip irrigation technology to African nations. Last year, a natural gas deal between NewMed and the UAE’s Mubadala deepened ties between the countries. Renewable energy may be the next to open doors, particularly in the Middle East.

“For many years, for many of these countries, oil was the key to success, a strong economy and a future. But now they are seeing that maybe isn’t going to be the future and are looking at Israel, which has been very strong without having natural resources for most of its existence,” said Yonatan Freeman, international relations expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

Enlight and NewMed intend to use a local partner to help with any projects they take on. NewMed still needs to bring the agreement to its shareholders, while Enlight does not.

“Together we can be very competitive with the largest players in this space in the world,” said Gilad. “The MENA countries see the importance of renewables.”

#Saudi Wealth Fund PIF Buys $7 Billion US Stocks Amid Recession Fears - Bloomberg

Saudi Wealth Fund PIF Buys $7 Billion US Stocks Amid Recession Fears - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund invested more than $7 billion to build new positions in US stocks including Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc., BlackRock Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as markets were battered by recession fears.

The $620 billion Public Investment Fund also added to positions it held in Facebook Inc. owner Meta Platforms Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc. and Electronic Arts Inc. in the second quarter, according to a 13F filing. The acquisitions show that the PIF, as the fund is known, is doubling down on its bet on technology investments despite a rout in valuations.

Chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the PIF is plowing deeper into public markets as it pursues the goal of more than doubling its assets by 2025. The wealth fund is boosting its investments in equities as Saudi Arabia’s income from oil almost doubled in the second quarter. Soaring crude prices are set to give the kingdom its first budget surplus in almost a decade.

The PIF’s most recent buying spree echoes the fund’s strategy in early 2020 when it spent billions snapping up stakes in US firms whose valuations had been battered by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. It then sold many of those stakes when markets rebounded.

Oil extends losses as weak demand outlook persists | Reuters

Oil extends losses as weak demand outlook persists | Reuters

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as bleak economic data from top crude buyer China renewed concerns of a global recession and the market monitored talks on a reviving deal that could allow more Iranian oil exports.

Brent crude futures fell 84 cents, or 0.9%, to $94.26 a barrel by 0953 GMT. WTI crude futures dipped 45 cents, or 0.5%, to $88.96 a barrel. The oil future benchmarks fell about 3% in their previous sessions.

China's central bank cut lending rates to try to revive demand as the nation's economy slowed unexpectedly in July after Beijing's zero-COVID policy and a property crisis slowed factory and retail activity. read more

"In our view, problems in the real estate sector, plus the government's zero-COVID strategy, are likely to continue to weigh on the economy in the short to medium term, meaning that oil prices will probably face persistent headwinds from this side," Commerzbank said in a note.

Most Gulf bourses fall, tracking oil and Asian shares lower | Reuters

Most Gulf bourses fall, tracking oil and Asian shares lower | Reuters

Most major stock markets in the Gulf were subdued in early trade on Tuesday, tracking Asian shares and oil prices lower, with the Abu Dhabi index on course to drop for a third session.

Brent crude futures, a key catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, were down $1.21, or 1.3%, to $93.89 a barrel by 0635 GMT, as bleak economic data from top crude buyer China renewed fears of a global recession.

China's central bank cut lending rates to revive demand as the nation's economy slowed unexpectedly in July, with factory and retail activity squeezed by Beijing's zero-COVID policy and a property crisis. read more

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI) dropped 0.3%, hit by a 1.1% fall in top lender Emirates NBD (ENBD.DU) and a 0.3% decrease in sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU).

On the other hand, blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU) gained 0.5%.

The board of Emaar Properties, which owns the Dubai Mall, will meet on Thursday to discuss the sale of its e-commerce fashion business, the company said on Monday. read more

The meeting will be held a week after Emaar announced a $2 billion cash and stock buyout of a joint venture partner in one of its real estate projects.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI) eased 0.2%, with the United Arab Emirates' biggest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD) losing 0.6%.

The Qatari benchmark (.QSI) declined 0.4%, driven down by a 1% fall in the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA) and a 0.7% decrease in Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA).

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), however, bucked the trend to trade 0.2% higher, with Saudi Arabian Mining Co (1211.SE) advancing 4.7%.

But the Saudi index's gains were limited by a 0.7% fall in oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE).

DFM enables DGCX brokerage companies to provide derivatives trading and clearing services for the first time

DFM enables DGCX brokerage companies to provide derivatives trading and clearing services for the first time

Dubai Financial Market (DFM) today announced that it has obtained the approval of the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) to allow the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) licensed brokerage firms to become DFM derivatives members and to provide their services in the market for the first time.

Currently, there are approximately 21 DGCX brokers licensed by SCA and this significant step caters to the growing demand from these companies to access the DFM. The market has received a number of inquiries or interests, which are under study in order to finalise licensing.

Hamed Ali, CEO of DFM and Nasdaq Dubai welcomed SCA’s Chairman Decision No. (15/R.M) of 2022, pertaining to rules of DGCX brokerage firms seeking a DFM derivatives membership, as an example of SCA’s continuous cooperation, which facilitated the accomplishment of this unprecedented step that enables DGCX members direct and seamless access to the DFM, hence offering new trading opportunities to their clients.

According to the SCA’s decision, DGCX’s brokerage companies can acquire a range of DFM derivatives membership licenses, including: trading brokerage, trading and clearing brokerage or trading and general clearing brokerage, in line with their DGCX license.

#Oman Gets First Upgrade From Fitch on Oil-Led Fiscal Turnaround - Bloomberg

Oman Gets First Upgrade From Fitch on Oil-Led Fiscal Turnaround - Bloomberg

Oman’s credit ranking was upgraded for the first time by Fitch Ratings as higher oil prices eased financing pressures and reversed nearly a decade of budget deficits.

Fitch raised Oman’s long-term foreign-currency rating by one notch to BB, or two levels below investment grade, according to a statement on Monday. Before the decision, the firm downgraded the sultanate four times since initiating its coverage in 2017.

“The upgrade reflects significant improvements in Oman’s fiscal metrics, a lessening of external financing pressures and ongoing efforts to reform public finances,” Fitch analysts including Toby Iles said.

Although long considered to be among the weakest sovereigns in the Gulf Arab region, Oman has more recently emerged as a reform standout, with a program to balance the books and lower its debt that included the introduction of value-added tax last year.


Oil extends losses as weak demand outlook lingers | Reuters

Oil extends losses as weak demand outlook lingers | Reuters

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as bleak economic data from top crude buyer China renewed fears of a global recession.

Brent crude futures fell 73 cents, or 0.8%, to $94.37 a barrel by 0313 GMT. WTI crude futures dipped 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $88.97 a barrel.

Oil futures fell about 3% during the previous session.

China's central bank cut lending rates to revive demand as the economy slowed unexpectedly in July, with factory and retail activity squeezed by Beijing's zero-COVID policy and a property crisis. read more