Tuesday 16 March 2021

#SaudiArabia's economy expands 2.5% in Q4 as non-oil sector grows | The National

Saudi Arabia's economy expands 2.5% in Q4 as non-oil sector grows | The National

Saudi Arabia's gross domestic product expanded 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the previous three months as the economy continued its recovery from a pandemic-induced slowdown.

The kingdom's non-oil economy expanded 2.4 per cent in the final quarter last year, data from the General Authority for Statistics on Tuesday showed. Saudi Arabia's oil economy grew by 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter as crude prices rallied amid improved economic conditions.

The non-oil private sector in the Arab world's biggest economy expanded by 3.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter, while the government sector grew by 0.6 per cent during the period.

“There was a solid rebound in economic activity in Q4 and the [kingdom’s] investment programme supports the growth outlook going forward,” Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said. “The fact that we will have substantially higher oil revenue this year is positive for confidence.”

Saudi Arabia’s GDP, however, contracted 3.9 per cent in the fourth quarter on an annual basis. The country’s oil sector shrank by 8.5 per cent, while its non-oil sector contracted by 0.8 per cent from the same period in 2019.

Oil drops as COVID-19 vaccine halt threatens demand | Reuters

Oil drops as COVID-19 vaccine halt threatens demand | Reuters

Oil prices fell for a third day on Tuesday, as Germany, France and other European states suspended the use of a major coronavirus vaccine, threatening the recovery of fuel demand.

Brent crude fell 49 cents to settle at $68.39 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 59 cents to end at $64.80 a barrel.

Earlier this month, Brent reached its highest since early 2020, while U.S. crude hit a 2018 high.

Germany, France and Italy said they would suspend use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine after reports about possible serious side effects, although the World Health Organization said there was no established link to the vaccine.

Europe’s medicines watchdog said the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine outweigh its risks. Investors are worried the slow pace of vaccinations in the European Union could hurt economic recovery and fuel demand.

Make Room, West Texas Intermediate and Brent. Murban Is Here. - Bloomberg

Make Room, West Texas Intermediate and Brent. Murban Is Here. - Bloomberg

On March 29, Saudi Arabia’s control over Mideast oil supply could be loosened, possibly forever. On that day, traders on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will begin buying and selling a futures contract based on Murban crude oil, which is produced by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Anyone who buys Murban oil will be able to sell it anywhere in the world, as they already can with West Texas Intermediate crude from the U.S. and Brent crude from Britain’s North Sea. The difference is that Murban volumes are much larger than those of the American and British crudes. The lack of destination controls will set Abu Dhabi apart from Saudi Arabia, which zealously controls who can buy and consume each shipment of its oil.

“Sooner or later, the action could weaken OPEC and the Coalition,” namely, oil-exporting countries that coordinate with OPEC, energy economist Philip Verleger of PKVerleger LLC writes in the March 8 issue of his newsletter, Notes at the Margin. “Their ability to sustain prices will be broken.”

Abu Dhabi, part of the United Arab Emirates, has chafed at the Saudis’ attempts to prop up prices by limiting production (which, of course, is what cartels live to do). Its production quota relative to capacity is lower than the Saudis’. “The UAE is increasingly willing to act in its own direct national interests, and where that doesn’t align with Saudi Arabia it’s confident and willing to go it alone,” Neil Quilliam, associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank, told Bloomberg in December.

The Murban futures contract is the sharpest break yet. The Saudis maximize profits by selling to customers at different prices, depending on local conditions, and prohibiting resale. Murban undercuts that strategy. Because of the volumes of oil involved and the freedom with which the contracts can be traded, Murban is likely to outshine WTI and Brent and become the world’s most important oil price benchmark, says Verleger. Conveniently, the delivery point for Murban is in the port city of Fujairah, which lies outside of the Strait of Hormuz, a notorious chokepoint.

Julian Lee, an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word, wrote March 14, “It doesn’t seem much, but the most damaging leaks often don’t. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has suffered a small crack that could grow to into a rift big enough to sink it.”

Verleger, in a March 14 email, wrote that his research over four decades shows that futures markets break cartels. “What it points to is a divorce between the UAE and the Saudis and lower oil prices--for a long time,” he wrote.

World’s Top Oil Trader Vitol Smashed Profit Record in 2020 - Bloomberg

World’s Top Oil Trader Vitol Smashed Profit Record in 2020 - Bloomberg

Vitol Group reaped record profits of around $3 billion last year as the world’s largest independent oil trader surfed the dramatic moves in energy markets, according to people familiar with the matter.

The results are the latest indication of the bonanza that oil traders enjoyed in 2020, when the commodity plunged amid a Saudi-Russian price war in the early days of the pandemic and then staged a sharp recovery as OPEC+ cut production.

Vitol hasn’t yet closed its 2020 accounts, and the final profit figure may still change, the same people said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t public. The company may also use some of last year’s earnings for write-downs, reducing the final net income figure. Still, the trading house expects to show a net profit of around $3 billion in 2020, significantly higher than the previous record of $2.3 billion booked in both 2009 and 2019, the same people said.

Vitol, which is owned by about 350 of its partner-traders, made a significant chunk of its profits during the second quarter, when oil demand collapsed, allowing traders to buy cheap crude and store it, while locking in a profit by selling forward the oil on the futures market at higher prices.

Oil Extends Retreat With Market Assessing Global Demand Recovery - Bloomberg

Oil Extends Retreat With Market Assessing Global Demand Recovery - Bloomberg

Oil fell the most in a week as investors assessed the state of the demand recovery in different parts of the world.

Futures in New York slipped 0.9% on Tuesday for a third straight session of losses, following a surge earlier this month to intraday levels last seen in 2018. Though there are indications of growing demand in some parts of the world, other regions -- notably Europe -- are lagging.

Road-fuel use is picking up in India and the U.S., but in France, consumption remained 10.8% lower in February year-over-year, according to the country’s petroleum-industry federation UFIP. Meanwhile, Europe’s health ministers are discussing the future of AstraZeneca Plc’s coronavirus vaccine.

Crude is seeing “a bit of a technical breather after the big jump up,” with prices “starting to get into a sweet spot,” said Ryan Kelbrants, market broker at CHS Hedging LLC. On the demand side, economies are “opening up and we’re getting things in the U.S. going again, but some of the other countries are lagging.”


PRICES:
  • West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell 59 cents to settle at $64.80 a barrel
  • Brent for May settlement declined 49 cents to end the session at $68.39 a barrel
  • Both benchmarks are at the lowest in nearly a week

Oil Declines With Investors Assessing Global Demand Recovery - Bloomberg

Oil Declines With Investors Assessing Global Demand Recovery - Bloomberg

Oil retreated as investors assessed the state of the demand recovery in different parts of the world.

Futures in New York fell as much as 2.4% on Tuesday, pulling back after a rally that’s seen prices rise more than 30% so far this year. Though there are indications of growing demand in some parts of the world, other regions -- notably Europe -- are lagging. Road-fuel use is picking up in India and the U.S., while Italy has headed back into lockdown. Meanwhile, Europe’s health ministers are discussing the future of AstraZeneca Plc’s coronavirus vaccine.

“A lot of demand hopes were priced into the market,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. “The renewed Covid restrictions in Europe are of particular concern, as it’s going the completely opposite direction that we thought we were all going at this point.”


  • West Texas Intermediate for April delivery slid $1.33 to $64.06 a barrel at 10:04 a.m. in New York
  • Brent for May settlement fell $1.21 to $67.67 a barrel

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf stocks gain on global rally; Egypt's shares ease | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf stocks gain on global rally; Egypt's shares ease | Nasdaq

Most Gulf markets ended higher on Tuesday, tracking global shares, as investors anticipated the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks meeting this week will keep policies accommodative to help drive a post-pandemic global economic recovery.

MSCI's All Country World Index, which tracks stocks across 49 countries, rose 0.3% to its highest since Feb. 22. .MIWD00000PUS.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI rose 0.2%, with Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company 2350.SE advancing 5.8%, while Banque Saudi Fransi 1050.SE gained 2.8%.

Elsewhere, Almarai 2280.SE also rose 1%. The Gulf's largest dairy company said on Tuesday it had agreed to buy frozen bakery item producer Bakemart in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain for an enterprise value of 93.5 million dirham ($25.46 million).

Meanwhile, the kingdom's economy shrank 3.9% year on year in the fourth quarter but rose 2.5% from the previous three months, according to data on Tuesday that showed an upturn from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic towards the end of 2020.

In Dubai, the main share index .DFMGI edged up 0.1%, helped by a 1.3% increase in Emirates NBD Bank ENBD.DU.

However, the index's gains were limited by losses at blue-chip developer Emaar Properties EMAR.DU.

In previous sessions, Emaar Properties and peers registered sharp gains after the Dubai government on Saturday announced its plan to increase tourism and hotel capacity by 134% over the next 20 years.

The Abu Dhabi index .ADI climbed 0.7%, with telecoms major Etisalat ETISALAT.AD gaining 1.5%.

Qatar's index .QSI added 0.5%, extending gains for a third consecutive session, led by a 3% rise in Commercial Bank COMB.QA.

But, Doha Bank DOBK.QA retreated over 2% as the stock traded ex-dividend.

European, Middle Eastern & African Stocks - Bloomberg #UAE #Kuwait #Israel #SaudiArabia #Qatar close

European, Middle Eastern & African Stocks - Bloomberg #UAE #Kuwait #Israel #SaudiArabia #Qatar close







#AbuDhabi asks banks to pay $800 mln for airport project guarantees - sources | Reuters

Abu Dhabi asks banks to pay $800 mln for airport project guarantees - sources | Reuters

State-owned Abu Dhabi Airports has called on almost 3 billion dirham ($816.82 million) worth of guarantees issued by local banks on behalf of contractors working on an airport expansion project already delayed by several years, sources said.

The move, which could further delay the project, comes ahead of expectations of a global recovery in travel demand after the coronavirus pandemic.

It could pressure balance sheets of banks already heavily exposed to the construction sector in the United Arab Emirates, sluggish for years amid a slowdown in infrastructure and property projects.

Abu Dhabi Airports signed in 2012 a $2.9 billion contract with a joint venture of contractors comprising Arabtec Holding, which filed for liquidation in January, Athens-based Consolidated Contractors Company and Turkey’s TAV.

RPT- #AbuDhabi's Mubadala interested in buying NMC hospital business - sources | Reuters

RPT-Abu Dhabi's Mubadala interested in buying NMC hospital business - sources | Reuters

Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund Mubadala is considering buying NMC Health’s core hospital business, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, emerging as another suitor of the troubled hospital group.

NMC, the largest private healthcare provider in the United Arab Emirates, ran into trouble last year after the disclosure of more than $4 billion in hidden debt left a many UAE and overseas lenders with heavy losses.

The company, now in administration, is exploring the possibility of selling its healthcare business in the UAE and Oman, which sources have previously said could generate around $1 billion.

Mubadala, which has over $230 billion in assets under management, is one of the investors and companies looking at the asset, said the sources.

“As an investor we regularly assess opportunities for their potential fit into our portfolio,” a source close to Mubadala told Reuters.

Aurora50 CEO Discusses Increasing Women on Boards in #UAE - Bloomberg video

Aurora50 CEO Discusses Increasing Women on Boards in U.A.E. - Bloomberg


Bloomberg Equality: Diana Wilde, Aurora50, CEO discusses gender parity in U.A.E. boards. She speaks with Manus Cranny on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg)

#SaudiArabia Implements Expat Labor Reforms -- With Caveats - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Implements Expat Labor Reforms -- With Caveats - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia added conditions to a new package of labor reforms for foreign workers that could curtail the greater freedom of movement the changes had promised.

The reforms, announced in November and applied on Sunday, are meant to help level the playing field for overseas workers and citizens in a bid to reduce domestic unemployment while continuing to draw foreign talent. It’s a major shift away from the kingdom’s controversial “kafala” or sponsorship system, criticized by human rights groups as allowing employers to trap and exploit foreign workers.

And indeed, technically, non-Saudis no longer need their employers permission to change jobs, travel abroad or leave the country permanently.

But a guide published by the Ministry of Human Resource and Social Development suggests that expatriates won’t be free to breeze in and out of the country. Vacationers will still need to pay for single-use government permits and then wait 10 days for approval, according to the guide, summarized in the Okaz newspaper on Monday. Multiple-use permits must be requested through employers.

Libya’s New Government : Here's What it Means for the Oil World - Bloomberg

Libya’s New Government : Here's What it Means for the Oil World - Bloomberg

On Monday, the country’s first unified government in seven years was sworn in, as efforts to reach a formal peace gather pace.

There are still plenty of divisions between the differing factions and those won’t be easily resolved before elections scheduled for December. The new cabinet will also have its work cut out restoring key services following a decade of turmoil since former dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi was toppled.

Yet the unity government, which ends a split between dueling eastern and western administrations, offers hope. It could further steady the oil industry in Libya -- home to Africa’s largest reserves -- and reduce the chances that militias restart fighting or close down ports, fields and refineries again.

“Libya’s oil and gas production will likely remain stable and the odds of broad conflict will remain low,” said analysts at Texas-based Stratfor, which advises clients on geopolitical risks.



Analysis: #Qatar tightens global gas market grip with bold expansion moves | Reuters

Analysis: Qatar tightens global gas market grip with bold expansion moves | Reuters

Qatar Petroleum, the world’s top liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer, is cranking up the pressure on high-cost rivals with bold expansion plans that will boost supplies over the coming decade and potentially push prices down further.

As competitors struggle to break even due to lower prices, the Qatari firm last month announced it will boost LNG output by about 40% to 110 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2026 in phase one of its expansion of North Field LNG, the largest single LNG project ever sanctioned.

The company is expected to announce second phase expansion plans this year which will lift LNG capacity by 2027 to 126 mtpa, enough to meet the total import needs of both Japan and South Korea - the world’s top and third largest LNG importers respectively.

Qatari marketing has the potential to undercut competing suppliers and has already helped put downward pressure on LNG contract prices over the last two years, Credit Suisse analyst Saul Kavonic said.

“With this decision, (Qatar) will once again reaffirm its dominance as the largest LNG supplier in the world,” said Chong Zhi Xin, a director at research firm IHS Markit.



#UAE's EGA reports 63% rise in annual adjusted EBITDA | Reuters

UAE's EGA reports 63% rise in annual adjusted EBITDA | Reuters

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) of the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday reported a 63% increase in annual adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).

The Abu Dhabi and Dubai jointly-owned company said EBITDA increased to 4.1 billion dirham ($1.13 billion), while revenue fell 9% to 18.7 billion which it said was due to lower prices and a drop in demand for “value added products.”

Chief Executive Abdulnasser bin Kalban said EGA expected benchmark aluminium prices to remain around $2,000 this year.

EGA is equally owned by state funds the Investment Corporation of Dubai and Abu Mubadala Investment Company of Abu Dhabi.

UPDATE 1-Petrofac suspended from new contract bids in #UAE, shares fall | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Petrofac suspended from new contract bids in UAE, shares fall | Reuters

Petrofac said on Monday it was barred from competing for new contracts in the United Arab Emirates, months after a former executive of the oilfield services provider pleaded guilty in Britain over bribery charges.

London-listed Petrofac shares fell as much as 12% to hit session lows after the company said UAE’s state-backed oil firm, ADNOC, had notified it of the decision. The Gulf country accounted for roughly 10% of its contract revenue in 2019.

In January, the former executive pleaded guilty to three bribery charges brought by Britain’s Serious Fraud Office over payments made to agents to influence awarding of contracts worth $3.3 billion in the UAE.

#SaudiArabia fourth quarter GDP down from previous year but up on third quarter as COVID-19 impact eases | Reuters

Saudi Arabia fourth quarter GDP down from previous year but up on third quarter as COVID-19 impact eases | Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank 3.9% year on year in the fourth quarter but rose 2.5% from the previous three months, according to data on Tuesday that showed an upturn from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic towards the end of 2020.

The oil sector contracted by 8.5% and the non-oil sector by 0.8% from the same period of 2019, Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics said.

But the same sectors rose a seasonally adjusted 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively, from the third quarter, with international trade picking up sharply.

“The data points to a further broad-based recovery in non-oil activity from the height of the crisis, with a fall in COVID cases at end-2020 and as the economy opened up,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

The kingdom’s investment programme would be a key driver of future growth, she said, referring to huge infrastructure projects backed by its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund.

Biggest Aluminum Maker in Middle East Sees Prices Staying High - Bloomberg

Biggest Aluminum Maker in Middle East Sees Prices Staying High - Bloomberg

Emirates Global Aluminium PJSC, one of the world’s biggest producers of the metal, expects prices to remain elevated this year as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic and vaccine rollouts continue.

Positive market sentiment from late 2020 “carried over to this year and continues to give us a strong outlook for 2021,” Chief Executive Officer Abdulnasser bin Kalban said in an interview on Tuesday.

Benchmark aluminum prices will probably remain around $2,000 per ton for 2021 as a whole, the United Arab Emirates-based company said. They’ve climbed roughly 12% this year to $2,218 in London -- the highest since mid-2018 -- amid a rally in commodities from metals to energy and food.


EGA, which has smelters in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and a bauxite mine in Guinea, had planned an initial public offering in 2018 or 2019. That was pulled after then-U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on aluminum imports from the UAE.

The company may still carry out a listing, though it’s not said when.

“The timing is a decision for our shareholders, and we will keep working on our financial performance so that when the shareholders are ready for a sale, we’re ready for it,” Chief Financial Officer Zouhir Regragui said.

EGA is equally owned by two sovereign wealth funds -- Investment Corp. of Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Co.

#UAE's energy producer Dana Gas mulls sale of treasury shares | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE's energy producer Dana Gas mulls sale of treasury shares | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE-listed Dana Gas, the largest private sector natural gas company in the Middle East, has confirmed it is considering some options to raise funds.

The energy company’s board of directors is scheduled to meet on March 21 to take up a proposal to sell treasury shares in the market, a bourse filing to the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) on Tuesday said.

No further details were disclosed regarding the plan.

The energy producer had earlier revealed plans to boost its capacity in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). It is also moving ahead with its plans to prepare for the drilling of the next exploration well in Block 6 in Egypt. The company operates production and exploration assets in KRI, Egypt and the UAE.

Despite reporting a net loss of $376 million for 2020 on the back of impairments, the company maintained that it has remained resilient.

Patrick Allman-Ward, chief executive officer of Dana Gas, said last month that the firm is looking into financing options, including green bonds, to raise approximately $500 million to fund its output capacity expansion plans, according to a Reuters report.

How #Dubai's 2040 master plan will resolve oversupply in property market | ZAWYA MENA Edition

How Dubai's 2040 master plan will resolve oversupply in property market | ZAWYA MENA Edition

The new 2040 Urban Master Plan, which seeks to make Dubai the world’s best city to live in, will finally address the huge housing supply glut in the emirate, according to a property analyst.

The ambitious vision that was unveiled over the weekend looks to increase Dubai’s spaces allotted for recreation, public parks and green areas, as well provide better housing options for residents and stimulate investment.

Ultimately, the quality of life will improve, more people from overseas would want to live, work and do business in Dubai, and the total resident population will grow to 5.8 million in 2040, up from 3.4 million this year.

“With the increased international demand, the oversupply situation that we see now will be eased. Population is expected to [nearly] double in Dubai, which means a population of 5.8 million will use up the housing supply,” said Ayman Youssef, vice president of real estate firm Coldwell Banker UAE.

“This plan is in line with the recent regulations Dubai has introduced, such as the golden visa, retirement visa and access to foreign investors. The improved regulations, along with the growth in infrastructure, healthcare, innovation and sustainability will lead to greater demand for housing, and places to work from,” Youssef told Zawya.

Middle East stocks: Most major Gulf markets rise; #Dubai dips | Reuters

Middle East stocks: Most major Gulf markets rise; Dubai dips | Reuters

Most major Gulf stock markets traded higher early on Tuesday, supported by their financial shares, while Dubai’s blue-chip developer Emaar Properties weighed on the index.

Saudi’s benchmark index rose 0.2%, as Al Rajhi Bank gained 0.2%, and Banque Saudi Fransi jumped 1.6%.

Almarai also gained 1.2%. The Gulf’s largest dairy company said on Tuesday it had agreed to buy frozen bakery item manufacturer and producer Bakemart in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain for an enterprise value of 93.5 million dirham ($25.5 million).

The Abu Dhabi index added 0.4%, on track to extend gains for a sixth consecutive session, led by a 0.8% hike in telecoms firm Emirates Telecommunication and 0.3% increase in market heavyweight First Abu Dhabi Bank.

The Qatari index gained 0.4%, supported by a 1.1% rise in petrochemical maker Industries Qatar.

The index’s gains, however, were capped by losses in banking shares led by a 2.5% fall in Doha Bank, which traded ex-dividend.

In Dubai, the index dropped 0.2%, with blue-chip developer Emaar properties losing 0.8% and sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank shedding 1.8%.

In previous sessions, Emaar Properties and other peers registered sharp gains after the Dubai government on Saturday announced its plan to increase tourism and hotel capacity by 134% over the next 20 years.

Oil drops amid rising stockpiles and COVID-19 demand concerns | Reuters

Oil drops amid rising stockpiles and COVID-19 demand concerns | Reuters

Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, extending declines to three consecutive days, as rising stockpiles in the United States added to the risks to a demand recovery after countries including Germany and France halted COVID-19 vaccinations.

Brent crude was down 69 cents, or 1%, at $68.19 by 0531 GMT, having dropped 0.5% on Monday. U.S. crude was down 69 cents, or 1.1%, at $64.70 a barrel, after declining 0.3% in the previous session.

Germany, France and Italy plan to suspend AstraZeneca PLC COVID-19 injections after reports of possible serious side effects, although the World Health Organization said there was no established link to the vaccine.