Monday, 13 January 2020

Are Oil Prices Still Too High? | OilPrice.com

Are Oil Prices Still Too High? | OilPrice.com:

China’s oil demand growth is expected to slow dramatically this year, a trend that should have a substantial impact on the global oil market.

CNPC said that oil demand in China will expand by 2.4 percent in 2020, less than half of the 5.2 percent growth rate seen in 2019, as reported by Bloomberg. That will also be the weakest growth rate since the global financial crisis a decade ago. “Negative impacts on the economy from U.S.-China trade frictions won’t be rooted out in the short term,” CNPC said.

At the same time, China has amassed an enormous strategic oil reserve in the last few years, growing from 191 million barrels in 2015 to as much as 800 million barrels last year. China’s import demand was bolstered by this stockpiling; should it slow down or cease altogether it would amount to another knock on demand.

Demand for gas is also expected to deteriorate to a four-year low.

CNPC expects gas demand to grow by 8.6 percent, down from 9.6 percent last year. Meanwhile, China’s domestic gas production is expected to increase, by 8.2 percent, year-on-year. China recently surpassed Japan as the world’s largest buyer of LNG, so the deceleration in demand and the increase in domestic supply will act as a drag on the already-weak LNG market.

Oil falls 1% as focus shifts to high U.S. fuel stocks - Reuters

Oil falls 1% as focus shifts to high U.S. fuel stocks - Reuters:

Oil prices fell about 1% on Monday as Middle East tensions eased and investors turned their focus to lackluster seasonal demand following last week’s bearish U.S. report showing a large fuel stockbuilds.

Brent crude LCOc1 settled down 78 cents at $64.20 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 settled at $58.08 a barrel, down 96 cents.

Thin U.S. refinery margins for petroleum products have sapped crude prices, particularly as winter demand for heating oil has disappointed suppliers and gasoline margins have weakened, analysts said.

“It’s hard for crude oil to go higher if refiners continue to lose money or at best break even on gasoline,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS).

#Saudi Healthcare Firm Said to Start IPO in Wake of Aramco Sale - Bloomberg

Saudi Healthcare Firm Said to Start IPO in Wake of Aramco Sale - Bloomberg:
The Dr Sulaiman Al Habib hospital in Buraidah.
 Photographer: Tasneem Alsultan/Bloomberg

One of Saudi Arabia’s largest private healthcare operators plans an initial public offering next month, according to people familiar with the matter, in what will be a litmus test for investor appetite after the world’s biggest share sale.

Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Group appointed Jadwa Investment and Riyad Capital as advisers, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private.

The hospital operator in September received approval from Saudi Arabia’s market regulator to sell a stake representing about 15% of its share capital. The deal will be the first IPO to come to the local market after Saudi Aramco raised more than $29 billion in December. That sale relied mainly on domestic investors.

Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical, Jadwa and Riyad Capital didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Aramco CEO Says Oil’s ‘Central Bank’ Can Handle Any Disruption - Bloomberg

Aramco CEO Says Oil’s ‘Central Bank’ Can Handle Any Disruption - Bloomberg:

Aramco’s quick recovery from the attacks on its Abqaiq oil facility shows resilience and flexibility that’s without parallel in the industry, proving to the world that Saudi Arabia is a reliable supplier, said Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser.

State-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co., which is the world’s most valuable company, has well-drilled emergency response units and massive flexibility built into its facilities, Nasser said. The kingdom is also working to make its industry less dependent on Abqaiq and improving defenses at its plants, he said.

“The whole world saw that Saudi Aramco, which is the central bank of oil, can respond to any unforeseen events,” Nasser said in a Bloomberg TV interview in Dammam. “There was no interruption to our international customers.”

Turkey Stocks Trade Near Record in Sign of Renewed Risk Appetite - Bloomberg

Turkey Stocks Trade Near Record in Sign of Renewed Risk Appetite - Bloomberg:

Turkish stocks continued their rally Monday as a deep discount to emerging-market peers and an improved outlook from the country’s banks enhanced their appeal to investors with a renewed appetite for riskier assets.

The Borsa Istanbul 100 Index rose as much as 1.9% to 120,899.69 on Monday, surpassing the benchmark’s record closing high and adding to their advance after emerging as the surprise winners last week amid the fallout from the Iran-U.S. crisis. Shares in Turkish banks and steelmaker Erdemir led the benchmark index higher.



Istanbul stocks are trading at a discount of almost 50% to their emerging-market peers. The imminent signing of a partial U.S-China trade deal is stoking optimism, adding to upbeat sentiment from the ebbing of Middle East tensions. Gains in the local currency and positive news on the economy encouraged the flow of cash to Turkish assets, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf shares rise as focus shifts to corporate earnings - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf shares rise as focus shifts to corporate earnings - Reuters:

Gulf stocks traded higher on Monday, extending their
rally to a third day, supported by easing U.S.-Iran tensions and ahead of
corporate earnings.

The stock markets across the Gulf had fallen sharply on Jan. 8 after Iran
retaliated against the U.S. drone strike that killed an Iranian commander.

Saudi Arabia's index rose 0.8% as Arab National Bank
jumped 4.9% and Banque Saudi Fransi advanced 2.7%. 

However, oil giant Saudi Aramco slipped 0.1% to 34.8 riyals
($9.28). Aramco shares have been volatile amid U.S.-Iran tensions and fell to 34
riyals on Jan. 8, its lowest since trading began on Dec. 11.

"GCC corporate profits are expected to increase by around 6.5% this year
with profits in Saudi Arabia forecast to be up 7.1%," said Tarek Fadlallah of
Nomura Asset Management Middle East, citing a Marmore Research note.

Oil price slides as hedge funds' buying fades: Kemp - Reuters

Oil price slides as hedge funds' buying fades: Kemp - Reuters:

Despite the increase in tensions across the Middle East after the killing of an Iranian general by a U.S. air strike, hedge fund managers added only modestly to their bullish position in petroleum last week.

Hedge funds have gambled heavily on an oil price recovery this year, pricing in accelerating global growth, restrictive output policy by Saudi Arabia and continued tension short of war between the United States and Iran.

As a result, the potential to add further bullish positions is more limited than a couple of months ago and prices are vulnerable to a sharp correction if growth disappoints or the threat of open conflict diminishes.

Hedge funds and other money managers increased their bullish position in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts by only 19 million barrels in the week to Jan. 7

Oil steady as U.S.-Iran conflict eases, trade deal details elusive - Reuters

Oil steady as U.S.-Iran conflict eases, trade deal details elusive - Reuters:

Oil prices dipped slightly on Monday as investors shift their focus away from easing Mideast tensions to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal whose details remain to be seen.

Brent crude LCOc1 was down 15 cents at $64.83 per barrel at 1150 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was down 8 cents at $58.96 a barrel from the previous session.

Oil prices surged to their highest in almost four months after a U.S. drone strike killed an Iranian commander and Iran retaliated with missiles launched against U.S. bases in Iraq. But they slumped again as Washington and Tehran retreated from the brink of direct conflict last week.

Global benchmark Brent touched $71.75 per barrel last week before ending on Friday below $65.

UPDATE 1-Egypt's Beltone to sell stake in brokerage Auerbach in 2020 - Reuters

UPDATE 1-Egypt's Beltone to sell stake in brokerage Auerbach in 2020 - Reuters:

Egyptian investment bank Beltone Financial Holding plans to sell its 60% stake in New York-based brokerage Auerbach Grayson & Company to help stem losses, the bank’s chief executive said on Monday.

Beltone, controlled by Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, believes a sale will help it return to profitability this year after losses since it bought the Auerbach stake in 2016, Ibrahim Karam told Reuters.

“Although it (Auerbach) helps us with a presence in more than 120 markets, the losses that come from it are big. We have a plan to deal with it that will be finalised before March,” Karam said in an interview in his office overlooking the Nile.

The board of directors had authorised him to negotiate the sale, he added.

Beltone reported losses of 14.3 million Egyptian pounds ($900,000) in 2017, 82.4 million pounds in 2018 and 66.5 million pounds in the first nine months of 2019.

Lekoil Shares Suspended As #Qatar Investment Authority Queries Loan | Morningstar

Lekoil Shares Suspended As Qatar Investment... | Morningstar:

Lekoil Ltd has requested shares be suspended in London on Monday after the validity of a loan was questioned.

At the start of January, Lekoil agreed a USD184.0 million loan from the Qatar Investment Authority for drilling and development at the Ogo field off the coast of Nigeria.

However, Lekoil said Monday representatives from the QIA have questioned the validity of the loan agreement.

The company said: "Lekoil is urgently seeking to establish, alongside its legal counsel and nominated adviser, the full facts of this matter, and pending this clarification, the company has requested that its ordinary shares be suspended from trading on AIM with immediate effect."

#Oman News: New Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Succeeds Qaboos - Bloomberg

Oman News: New Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Succeeds Qaboos - Bloomberg:

Sultan Haitham bin Tariq speaks during a swearing in ceremony on Jan. 11.
 Source: AFP via Getty Images

Oman’s new sultan takes charge of a nation that has known only one ruler for the past half-century. And while the country Haitham bin Tariq now leads is nothing like the impoverished backwater his cousin Qaboos took over back in 1970, he, too, is grabbing the reins in complicated times.

Qaboos, who died Friday at 79, oversaw the transformation of Oman from a collection of sleepy villages to a developed nation powered by oil revenue. A foreign policy maverick, he also cemented his country’s reputation as an oasis of calm in a turbulent region.

But Oman, strategically located near key oil shipping lines at the eastern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, has been struggling for years to pull itself out of an economic slump, and the quiet quashing of dissent has become commonplace. Under Haitham, Qaboos’s handpicked successor, the small nation famous for its independent ways may also need to rethink alliances.

GCC sovereigns’ fiscal reforms progress to remain slow | ZAWYA MENA Edition

GCC sovereigns’ fiscal reforms progress to remain slow | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Moody’s said that GCC sovereigns’ 2020 outlook is negative due to slow fiscal reform progress, weak growth, and higher geopolitical risk.

The pace of fiscal consolidation in 2020 is expected to be slow and most GCC countries have no significant new measures lined up as the focus on social stability and diversification increases.

Oman's downgrade in March 2019, following five downgrades since 2015, reflects Moody’s expectation that the scope for fiscal consolidation in the Sultanate would remain significantly constrained by the government's economic and social stability objectives.

Additionally, Moody’s said that the negative outlook change for Sharjah (A3 negative) in July 2019 was driven by the government's deteriorating fiscal position, which, in the absence of significant new fiscal consolidation measures, would point to credit metrics consistent with a lower rating.

#UAE to double renewable energy portfolio again in next ten years - ADNOC - Reuters

UAE to double renewable energy portfolio again in next ten years - ADNOC - Reuters:

The United Arab Emirates grew its renewable energy portfolio by more than 400% in the last 10 years, and is on track to double that again in the coming decade, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.[ADNOC.UL] chief executive Sultan al-Jaber said on Monday.

ADNOC “will increase our carbon capture utilization and storage program by 500% ... to capture the same amount of C02 as 5 million acres of forest,” Jaber also told a sustainable energy event in the United Arab Emirates capital Abu Dhabi.

Oil steady as fears over U.S.-Iran conflict ease, focus turns to trade deal - Reuters

Oil steady as fears over U.S.-Iran conflict ease, focus turns to trade deal - Reuters:

Oil prices held steady on Monday as fears of conflict between the United States and Iran eased, with investors shifting their focus to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal, which could boost economic growth and demand.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 1 cents at $64.99 per barrel at 0737 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was up 5 cents at $59.09 a barrel from the previous session.

Oil prices surged to their highest in almost four months after a U.S. drone strike killed an Iranian commander and Iran retaliated with missiles launched against U.S. bases in Iraq. But they slumped again as Washington and Tehran retreated from the brink of direct conflict.

Global benchmark Brent touched $71.75 per barrel last week before ending on Friday below $65.

Indonesia, #UAE sign business deal worth about $23 billion: Widodo - Reuters

Indonesia, UAE sign business deal worth about $23 billion: Widodo - Reuters:

Indonesia signed 11 business deals with the United Arab Emirates worth a combined 314.9 trillion rupiah ($23 billion) covering investment in energy and other sectors, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said via his Twitter account on Monday.

Widodo witnessed the signing of the deals with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed over the weekend during an official visit to Abu Dhabi, his tweet said. 


President Widodo, who began his second term in office in October, is keen to boost foreign investment to help create jobs and boost growth in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy where economic growth has been stuck at around 5% for several years.

In the petrochemical and gas sectors, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) signed deals with Indonesian companies PT Pertamina and PT Chandra Asri Petrochemicals (TPIA.JK), UAE state news agency WAM reported.

#SaudiArabia committed to oil market stability: energy minister - Reuters

Saudi Arabia committed to oil market stability: energy minister - Reuters:

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday the kingdom, the world’s top crude exporter, would do “all it can” to ensure oil market stability at a time of heightened tension in the region.

“There is no more reliable and responsible supplier than Saudi Arabia,” he told an energy conference. “As tension remains high in our region, Saudi Arabia will continue to do all it can do to ensure stable oil markets.”

MIDEAST STOCKS-Major Gulf stocks gain ahead of corporate earnings - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Major Gulf stocks gain ahead of corporate earnings - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters:

Most major Gulf markets rose on Monday in early trade, as fears of conflict between the United States and Iran eased and investors focus turned to corporate earnings starting this week.

Saudi Arabia’s index rose 0.4% as Al Rjahi Bank gained 0.6%, while Saudi Basic Industries was up 1%. 


Oil giant Saudi Aramco rose 0.3% to 34.9 riyals.

“GCC corporate profits are expected to increase by around 6.5% this year with profits in Saudi Arabia forecast to be up 7.1%,” said Tarek Fadlallah of Nomura Asset Management Middle East, citing Marmore Research.

In Qatar, the index was up 0.5% as the Gulf’s largest lender Qatar National Bank increased 1.7% ahead of its corporate earnings announcement on Tuesday. Qatar Gas Transport gained 2.1%.