Oil rises despite OPEC+ sticking to raising output amid India COVID surge | Reuters

Oil rises despite OPEC+ sticking to raising output amid India COVID surge | Reuters

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as OPEC, Russia and their allies will stick to plans to raise output slightly from May 1, suggesting it does not see a lasting impact on demand from India’s coronavirus crisis.

OPEC+, as the producer group is known, has also ditched plans to hold a full ministerial meeting on Wednesday, sources said. A technical meeting on Monday had voiced concern about surging COVID-19 cases but kept its oil demand forecast unchanged.

The panel decided to stick to policies broadly agreed at a previous April 1 meeting of OPEC+, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said after the talks. 

Brent crude ended the session up 77 cents, or 1.2%, at $66.42 a barrel after climbing to a session high of $66.51. U.S. oil gained $1.03, or 1.7%, to settle at $62.94.

“Traders do not want to miss out on a potential bullish OPEC+ meeting so a limited optimism is reflected in prices,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen of Rystad Energy.

Oil rises as OPEC+ seen sticking to policy despite India COVID surge | Reuters

Oil rises as OPEC+ seen sticking to policy despite India COVID surge | Reuters

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as OPEC+ sources said the producer group would stick to existing plans to boost oil output slightly from May 1, suggesting they do not see a lasting impact on demand from India’s coronavirus crisis.

The group has also ditched plans to hold a full ministerial meeting on Wednesday, the sources said. A technical meeting on Monday had voiced concern about surging COVID-19 cases but kept its oil demand forecast unchanged.

Brent crude was up 48 cents, or 0.7%, at $66.13 a barrel by 10:59 a.m. ET (1459 GMT), after climbing to a session high of $66.45. U.S. oil gained 63 cents, or 1%, to $62.54.

“Traders do not want to miss out on a potential bullish OPEC+ meeting so a limited optimism is reflected in prices,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen of Rystad Energy.

OPEC+ Prepares for Meeting Amid Troubling India Covid Virus Surge - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Prepares for Meeting Amid Troubling India Covid Virus Surge - Bloomberg

OPEC and its allies will proceed with plans to gently revive oil production as global demand recovers from the pandemic, despite surging infections in India.

A committee led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed the coalition should press on with its roadmap for increasing supply by 2 million barrels a day over the next three months, a decision that was later rubber-stamped in a statement from the whole group.

World oil consumption will rebound by a vigorous 6 million barrels a day this year, according to OPEC+ estimates, though the recovery remains at risk from virus outbreaks in India and Brazil. As a result, the glut of oil inventories that amassed when demand collapsed last year will be almost gone by the end of this quarter.

“We can take comfort in knowing that our leadership has helped turn the tide,” Mohammad Barkindo, secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said on Twitter. “But at the same time, the persistence of Covid-19 reminds us that this is no time to stray from the cautious and steadfast approach we have taken over the past year.”

MIDEAST STOCKS Major Gulf markets end mixed as petchems boost #Qatar | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS Major Gulf markets end mixed as petchems boost Qatar | Reuters

Major stock markets in the Gulf closed mixed on Tuesday, with petrochemical shares boosting the Qatari index.

In Qatar, the benchmark (.QSI) rose 0.6%, led by a 2.9% increase in Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA), extending gains from the previous session when the petrochemical maker reported a higher net profit for the quarter ended March 31.

Mesaieed Petrochemical (MPHC.QA) jumped 4.2%, ahead of its first-quarter earnings announcement.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) finished 0.4% higher, with Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Services (4013.SE) advancing 3.6% and Saudi National Bank (SNB) (1180.SE) rising 1.3%.

SNB, the kingdom's largest lender, posted a 20.3% rise in first-quarter net profit on Monday with lower impairments and higher fees, in a sign that the economy has been recovering from last year's pandemic lockdowns. read more

Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday it had intercepted an explosive-laden boat off the Red Sea port of Yanbu after maritime security firms cited "unconfirmed reports" of an attack on a vessel in the area. read more

In Dubai, the main share index (.DFMGI) fell 0.6%, hit by a 1.3% fall in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU) and a 1.1% decrease in sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU).

Among others, Islamic Arab Insurance (SALAMA.DU) dived some 10%, its biggest intraday fall since March last year, as the insurer went ex-dividend.

The Abu Dhabi index (.ADI) lost 0.4%, with telecoms giant Etisalat (ETISALAT.AD) sliding 1.3%, while Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) (ADCB.AD) retreated 1%.

ADCB, the United Arab Emirates' third-biggest lender, gained over 2% on Monday a day after it reported soaring profit as it recovers from impairments linked to troubled hospital operator NMC Health. read more

However, the index saw some support from Emirates Driving Company (DRIVE.AD), which soared 9.4% after the firm announced establishment of a new branch with an investment of about 22 million dirhams ($5.99 million).

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) rebounded 0.4%, with top lender Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA) rising 1.5%.

OPEC+ Prepares for Meeting Amid Troubling India Covid Virus Surge - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Prepares for Meeting Amid Troubling India Covid Virus Surge - Bloomberg

OPEC and its allies are reviewing their plans to revive oil production, as a robust recovery in global demand was clouded by surging coronavirus infections in India.

A panel of ministers that monitors the oil market met online on Tuesday, after bringing forward their discussions by one day. They will determine whether the full OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Wednesday -- which has the power to change output policy -- needs to go ahead, delegates said.

Technical experts from the cartel issued a report on Monday projecting a strong recovery in global oil demand this year, delegates said, asking not to be named because the information is private. However, their outlook was clouded by a raging virus outbreak in India, which could crimp fuel demand this month by as much as 350,000 barrels a day, according to OilX.

“China numbers look good, demand in the U.S. looks like it’s going to be really good this summer,” said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC. “The dark cloud is India.”

#UAE investors turn jittery, engage in some profit booking despite upbeat Q1-2021 results | Markets – Gulf News

UAE investors turn jittery, engage in some profit booking despite upbeat Q1-2021 results | Markets – Gulf News

Dubai and Abu Dhabi stocks took a breather from three days of advances on Tuesday morning, with investors keen on profit-booking amid uncertain market conditions. Qatar Exchange gained on the back of strong first-quarter results from leading lights.

Dubai Financial Market traded 0.2 per cent lower at 2,640 points despite du advancing 0.8 per cent after first-quarter 2021 profits jumped around 39 per cent from the final quarter of 2020, implying the telco has left the worst behind. But gains were limited as the performance fell short of pre-pandamic levels, with profits and revenues dropping compared to the same quarter last year when COVID-19 had just begun to impact.

The index also received some impetus from Gulf Navigation and Emaar Properties. But the advances were overwhelmed by a 1.2 per cent drop in Emirates NBD, which pulled back after three consecutive days of gains. The bank has been on the upside lately after outstanding first-quarter results. But dips keep interrupting the positive run with investors prone to booking profits.

Ex-dividend in mind

Dubai Islamic Bank dropped ahead of quarterly results planned for later in the day. UAE banks by and large have reported strong earnings for the first three months, but investors look eager to see more before putting in their money. Islamic Arab Insurance plunged 8.4 per cent on ex-dividend date.

Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange inched 0.3 per cent lower to 6,128 points, weighed down by the banking stocks. First Abu Dhabi Bank was down after a recent run of gains while Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank shed 0.5 per cent, giving up some of over 2 per cent gain it chalked up Monday on the back of a strong first-quarter showing.

Earnings run

Qatar Exchange bucked the downward trend to expand 0.4 per cent to 10,958 points, helped by robust corporate earnings for the first three months. The blue-chip Industries Qatar traded on top after the first-quarter profits jumped to QR1.5 billion from QR300 million a year earlier.

Baladna, Mesaieed Petrochemical and Qatar Insurance traded higher with markets betting the firms will report strong quarterly earnings. Qatar Islamic Bank received partial gains after the board removed ownership limits for foreign investors.

#UAE and UK set to sign multibillion-pound clean energy and tech investment deals | The National

UAE and UK set to sign multibillion-pound clean energy and tech investment deals | The National

The United Kingdom expects to sign multibillion-pound investment deals with the UAE in clean energy and infrastructure as it looks to deepen its trade and investment ties with the Arab world’s second-largest economy, its trade commissioner for the Middle East said.

The UK is also looking to finalise details of investments into its technology sector that may also reach £1 billion ($1.38bn), Simon Penney told The National in an interview.

Britain’s Office for Investments, an agency set up this year to promote and channel investments into the UK, expects to get more clarity on the size and scope of potential deals and how they will be structured by the end of June. Deal announcements “most definitely” will take place in the second half of the year, Mr Penney, a former banker who was also appointed the UK's consul general in Dubai in January, said.

"We haven’t put a number on it because we’re deliberately not boxing ourselves in on numbers ... the size will be determined by the need," Mr Penney said. “It could be bigger than £1bn.”

Al Dhabi Capital's Yasin Bullish on #Saudi Banks - Bloomberg

Al Dhabi Capital's Yasin Bullish on Saudi Banks - Bloomberg

Al Dhabi Capital Chief Strategy Officer, Mohammed Ali Yasin, discusses his optimism on Saudi banks after the announcement of a 10-year spending plan, overweight United Arab Emirates markets, and commodities. He speaks with Yousef Gamel El-Din on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg)

COVID-19, subdued oil price to leave most of Gulf in the red this year: Fitch | Reuters

COVID-19, subdued oil price to leave most of Gulf in the red this year: Fitch | Reuters

The lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and last year’s sharp drop in oil prices will leave most governments in the Gulf with deficits this year, ratings agency Fitch said.

Countries in the region will see their finances improve thanks to a rebound in oil prices and the unwinding of production cuts.

But deficits will remain high, particularly in Kuwait and Bahrain. “We expect only Abu Dhabi and Qatar to eke out fiscal surpluses,” Fitch said in a report.

“High fiscal break-even oil prices illustrate the scale of the public finance reform challenge and mostly remain well above current or forecast oil prices.”

Fitch expects average Brent oil prices of $58 a barrel this year but its long-term forecast is $53.

Bahrain would need a price of nearly $100 a barrel to balance its budget in 2021-2022, Kuwait more than $80, and Saudi Arabia and Oman around $70, Fitch estimated.

Brent crude was trading around $66 a barrel on Tuesday. [O/R]

Besides oil revenues, the coronavirus continues to weigh on Gulf states’ coffers, with some countries recently re-imposing restrictions on economic activity.

“Renewed waves of infections continue to hamper external receipts, public finances, employment and GDP growth,” said Fitch.

It expects Abu Dhabi and Qatar to post fiscal surpluses of 1.1% and 2.4% of GDP, respectively. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s largest economy, is forecast to post a 5.3% deficit.

European, Middle Eastern & African Stocks - Bloomberg #UAE #Kuwait #Israel #SaudiArabia #Qatar mid-session

European, Middle Eastern & African Stocks - Bloomberg #UAE #Kuwait #Israel #SaudiArabia #Qatar mid-session

#Qatar Adds U.S. Lobbying Muscle After Saudi Rift, Trump’s Snub - Bloomberg

Qatar Adds U.S. Lobbying Muscle After Saudi Rift, Trump’s Snub - Bloomberg

Qatar is ramping up its lobbying efforts in the U.S., eager to cultivate a closer relationship with the Biden administration and Congress in order to avoid a repeat of 2017, when it was caught off-guard by a Saudi-led boycott in the Persian Gulf.

Since January, Qatar has hired seven prominent firms to do lobbying and consulting work in Washington at a combined rate of $186,000 per month, according to Foreign Agent Registration Act documents. At least five of the firms have close ties to Democrats, including links with the House and Senate foreign affairs committees.

That annual rate of $2.2 million underestimates total costs because they come in addition to the more than a dozen groups contracted by Qatar before 2021, such as Ballard Partners and Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough LLP.

The Middle Eastern country, which has a population of about 2.8 million according to the World Bank, has been bolstering its lobbying network since 2017, following the Saudi-led dispute. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt accused Qatar’s ruling family of supporting terrorist groups. They cut off diplomatic relations with Qatar, closed its only land border and banned Qatari planes and ships from their airspace and sea routes. Qatar has rejected the allegations.

MENA sovereigns: Only #AbuDhabi, #Qatar will have fiscal surpluses in 2021 | ZAWYA MENA Edition

MENA sovereigns: Only Abu Dhabi, Qatar will have fiscal surpluses in 2021 | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereigns will experience significant narrowing of fiscal deficits/GDP in 2021, said Fitch Ratings in a report on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, fiscal deficits will remain high, particularly in Kuwait and Bahrain. “We expect only Abu Dhabi and Qatar to eke out fiscal surpluses. Persistent deficits elsewhere will lead to continued debt issuance and/or drawdowns of assets, although sovereign assets remain sufficient to finance prolonged deficits in the higher-rated sovereigns,” it said.

Fitch has placed Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia on Negative Outlook, reflecting the lingering hit to public and external finances and growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fall in oil prices last year, as well as liquidity and funding uncertainties in Kuwait and Tunisia.

The ratings agency’s forecasts assume average Brent oil prices of $58 per barrel (bbl) in 2021, accompanied by further unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts beyond the 2.1 million barrel increase already announced for May-July, “although average oil output will still likely end up below 2020 levels.”

Oil rebounds to $66 ahead of OPEC+ meeting, India's COVID surge weighs | Reuters

Oil rebounds to $66 ahead of OPEC+ meeting, India's COVID surge weighs | Reuters

Oil rebounded to $66 a barrel on Tuesday on speculation that a meeting of producer group OPEC+ may tweak oil output policy to address India’s coronavirus crisis that could dent fuel demand.

OPEC and allies will hold a monitoring meeting on Tuesday instead of April 28 as planned earlier. A technical meeting on Monday had voiced concern about surging COVID-19 cases, although it kept its 2021 oil demand forecast unchanged.

Brent crude was up 58 cents, or 0.9%, at $66.23 a barrel by 0820 GMT, after dropping 0.7% on Monday. U.S. oil gained 79 cents, or 1.3%, to $62.70.

“Oil prices are ticking up today on trader hopes that OPEC+ may address India’s demand destruction with supply policy amendments in its coming meeting,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen of Rystad Energy.