Long-term outlook for Dubai takes another turn down

Long-term outlook for Dubai takes another turn down:

Regardless of the shortened three-day trading week, the bear market continued in Dubai with the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) falling 88.39 or 3.31 per cent to end at 2,580.27. This is the second week in a row where the index fell more than 3.0 per cent. There were only five positive issues, while 30 declined. Weekly volume fell given the shorter week. For the year, the index has fallen 23.4 per cent, and it is down 31.2 per cent from its 2017 peak of 3,738.69.

Of greater significance than last week’s performance however, is the fact that the DFMGI has not only closed below the prior long-term swing low support of 2,590.72 from January 2016, but it has closed below it on a weekly basis. As the index fell last week there was no sign of support at the 2016 lows. This is contrary to the clear support seen in 2016 as the index quickly turned higher back then and moved into a sustained rally. Technically, last week’s action is long-term bearish a continuation of the decline that began off the 2014 highs has been triggered. Therefore, the possibility of an acceleration in downside momentum has increased. Further, any chance for a recovery has been extended into the future as there is no sign of a bottom.

Looking back at previous price action, there may first be some degree of support seen around the monthly price area of 2,409. That’s where resistance was seen at the peak from October 2009 and now it may be a support area. Nevertheless, there is no further evidence for the potential significance of that price zone and therefore it is not likely an area that will hold for the long-term.

#Qatar’s Opec exit signals future course of action - The Peninsula Qatar

Qatar’s Opec exit signals future course of action - The Peninsula Qatar:

Qatar’s surprise announcement to exit Opec on January 1 after 57 years, citing the country’s emphasis on expanding its natural gas production is a message that the country remains committed to pursuing an independent path and focusing on a sector where it is already vying for position as the world’s largest producer, rather than remaining in an organization that it sees as irrelevant to its growth plan, Institute of International Finance (IIF) said yesterday.

Qatar has ample physical and financial resources to withstand the blockade tensions; apart from the sovereign wealth fund, the central bank continues to amass foreign reserves, IIF noted in its ‘Qatar Country Report.’ IIF believes that the regional rift has been a blessing in disguise in a way, since it has spurred the government to reaffirm its objectives of diversification and private sector development and to accelerate its reforms. It is gradually moving forward with legislation to permit 100 percent foreign ownership of firms in most sectors and favorable tax treatment in a bid to attract FDI, as well as fostering the growth of SMEs by expanding their access to financing and opportunities for participation in PPPs. It is partnering with prominent universities to expand its human capital and gradually encouraging greater participation of women in higher education and visible positions in leadership. In addition, it is developing plans to ensure that the construction associated with the World Cup pays long-term dividends even after the games are over.

IIF expects Qatar’s growth to pick up from 1.6 percent in 2017 to 2.2 percent in 2018. Construction activity, funded through years of accumulated oil and gas proceeds and overwhelmingly reliant on a migrant workforce, is likely to remain strong and the main driver of non-hydrocarbon growth, with significant work still underway to complete the infrastructure necessary for the 2022 World Cup.

OPEC-Plus Deal Is Worth The Risk Of Trump Tweets - Bloomberg

OPEC-Plus Deal Is Worth The Risk Of Trump Tweets - Bloomberg:

If Friday’s last-minute deal by the OPEC-plus group sparks a big rally in oil prices, then it and Saudi Arabia, especially, can probably expect a few holiday tweets from a certain president. Judging from comments made by Khalid Al-Falih, the country’s energy minister, they seem to expect as much.

OPEC says it will cut 800,000 barrels a day of production starting in January, while its 10 partner countries have pledged to take out 400,000 a day. Oil prices jumped, erasing the plunge that followed Thursday’s inconclusive meeting. Even so, Brent crude oil is still only at $63 a barrel. That could change, however, if Saudi Arabia follows through on comments made by Al-Falih at Friday’s press conference.

While the group didn’t give specific quotas for each member, the overall figure implies a cut of 3 percent versus October production except for the three countries exempted (Iran, Libya and Venezuela). That would mean Saudi Arabia going from about 10.6 million barrels a day to 10.3 million. However, Al-Falih said the country produced 11.1 million barrels in November and guided for 10.2 million barrels a day in January, when the cuts are due to begin. So rather than cutting 300,000 barrels a day, Saudi Arabia may be taking out three times that amount in the near term, more than OPEC’s entire pledge.

Qatar's Emir Won't Join Gulf Summit in Riyadh: Turkey's AA - Bloomberg

Qatar's Emir Won't Join Gulf Summit in Riyadh: Turkey's AA - Bloomberg:

The Qatari Emir, Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, will not join the Gulf Cooperation Council Summit to be held in Riyadh on Sunday, Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reported late Saturday, citing a Qatari official it didn’t identify.

A state minister will represent the country at the meeting instead, AA reported. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Adbulaziz invited Qatar’s ruler to attend the regional summit in a sign of a potential thaw between the nations.

The invitation, which was extended on Dec. 4, was seen as a way for Saudi Arabia to start to overcome international condemnation for the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and its conduct in the Yemen war, and diffuse tensions with its neighbor.

#Qatar Petroleum to buy stake in ExxonMobil Mozambique blocks | Reuters

Qatar Petroleum to buy stake in ExxonMobil Mozambique blocks | Reuters:

Qatar Petroleum said on Saturday it had agreed to buy a 10 percent participating interest in three of ExxonMobil’s offshore exploration blocks in Mozambique’s Angoche and Zambezi basins.

It will be part of a consortium made up of affiliates of ExxonMobil with a 50 percent stake, Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos with 20 percent, Rosneft with 20 percent interest, and Qatar Petroleum with 10 percent.

Qatar and the United States plan to strengthen “energy partnerships,” the emirate’s minister of state for energy affairs, Saad Al-Kaabi, said in a statement after a meeting in Doha with his U.S. counterpart Rick Perry.

UPDATE 1-Saudi oil exports seen down 1 mln bpd in Jan from Nov levels - sources | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Saudi oil exports seen down 1 mln bpd in Jan from Nov levels - sources | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports are expected to drop next month by some 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from November levels, two sources familiar with the matter said on Saturday.

The world’s top oil exporter is expected to ship about 7.3 million bpd in January, one of the sources said, due to softening seasonal demand and as Riyadh follows through on a global deal to cut output to prevent a build up in oil supplies.

The sources did not give a figure for December oil exports.

Saudi Arabia Juggles Iran and U.S. Shale to Deliver OPEC Deal - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Juggles Iran and U.S. Shale to Deliver OPEC Deal - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister emerged from days of heated OPEC talks joking that he wasn’t an easy man to be friends with.

Yet, the deal Khalid Al-Falih hammered out to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels a day, which sent oil prices soaring on Friday, was based on Saudi Arabia shouldering the lion’s share of the cuts. It also relied, to an unprecedented extent, on Russia to broker an agreement between the Saudis and their archrivals, Iran, and acknowledged implicitly that there’s little the kingdom could do to hurt surging U.S. oil shale without causing itself pain.

“Saudi economic self-interest trumps Trump,’’ said Mike Rothman, president of Cornerstone Analytics Ltd., a veteran of three decades of OPEC meetings.