Tuesday 9 March 2021

Oil Bulls Who Stayed Course Through Free-Fall Reap Rewards - Bloomberg

Oil Bulls Who Stayed Course Through Free-Fall Reap Rewards - Bloomberg

An oil glut coupled with a virus-induced free-fall in global demand sent energy stocks spiraling a year ago. Now, as the world begins to recover from the pandemic, oil bulls who stayed the course are enjoying big returns.

The move is turning some fund managers’ gaze back to Canada, where oil producers were clobbered a year ago, with even blue-chip names such as Suncor Energy Inc. losing two-thirds of their value in a matter of weeks.

Improved Canadian oil pricing and fewer worries about pipeline capacity has funds such as Bison Interests LLC redeploying capital away from U.S. shale and into Canadian energy companies. The Houston-based fund, which has risen about 90% this year, is bullish on names such as Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. that have exposure to Alberta’s Clearwater oil play.

Josh Young, Bison’s chief investment officer, said the economics of the region are better than the Permian Basin. “It’s probably the most economic onshore resource play,” he said. Bison seeks out disconnects between stock prices and the intrinsic value of a company and was able to deploy capital during the downturn, he said.

Oil Deepens Retreat After Recent Rally Flashes Technical Warning - Bloomberg

Oil Deepens Retreat After Recent Rally Flashes Technical Warning - Bloomberg

Oil pulled back from recent multi-year highs after technical indicators showed crude rallied too far too fast.

Futures in New York fell toward $64 a barrel on Tuesday in choppy trading, following a surge Monday to the highest intraday level since 2018 after an attack on a major Saudi Arabian crude export terminal. Prices rose above the Upper Bollinger band during the last three sessions, signaling a pullback was in store. Meanwhile, the U.S. government expects domestic crude production to rise drillers take advantage of oil’s price recovery.

Crude’s rally “just kept pushing and pushing and pushing,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “Then we had the OPEC surprise and the Saudi attack, triggering the last key surge where now a lot of the recovery and demand expectations due to the vaccines’ success has already been priced in.”


PRICES
  • West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $1.04 to settle at $64.01 a barrel
  • Brent for May settlement declined 72 cents to end the session at $67.52 a barrel

Column: Oil price spikes and permanent consumption losses | Reuters

Column: Oil price spikes and permanent consumption losses | Reuters

Promises by U.S. shale producers to pursue a more restrictive approach to capital investment and production seem to have emboldened Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC+ to test the room for higher oil prices.

If shale firms respond to higher prices and revenues by returning capital to lenders and investors, rather than increasing output, there may be an opportunity for OPEC+ to let prices rise without losing market share.

“Drill, baby, drill is gone for ever. Shale companies are now more focused on dividends,” the Saudi energy minister said in an interview on March 4.

“It’s the shale companies which are themselves changing. They have had their fair share of adventure and now they are listening to the call of their shareholders.”

The kingdom’s interest in testing support for higher prices comes when many investors are expecting a strong upward cycle, or even supercycle, in oil and other commodity prices.

Strong economic growth after the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, is expected to accelerate consumption growth for oil and other commodities.

DIFC sees 20% growth in member companies in 2020 despite the pandemic | The National

DIFC sees 20% growth in member companies in 2020 despite the pandemic | The National

The total number of companies operating at Dubai International Financial Center increased 20 per cent  
to 2,919 in 2020. Sarah Dea / The National

The number of new companies operating at the Dubai International Financial Center grew 20 per cent last year – the highest the financial hub has registered till date.

The total number of companies at the centre reached 2,919 last year with 915 new financial entities, the DIFC said in a statement on Tuesday. FinTech firms more than doubled to 303 during the period.

“DIFC’s best-ever annual performance in its history, achieved in the country’s 50th anniversary year, …reflect the UAE’s and Dubai’s ability to partner with its business communities to facilitate continued growth despite the most challenging conditions we have seen in the international economy,” Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, deputy ruler of Dubai and president of DIFC, said.

The growth in 2020 "enhances the diversity and sophistication of DIFC’s financial ecosystem, further raising Dubai’s status as a major focal point for global finance and a growth multiplier for the industry”, he added.

#SaudiArabia’s Fannie Mae Eyes Debut International Bond in 2021 - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s Fannie Mae Eyes Debut International Bond in 2021 - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s mortgage-refinancing firm is planning to sell its first international bond later this year as the kingdom’s equivalent of Fannie Mae looks to boost its activities buying up home loans from banks.

The Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co., established in late 2017 by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, has started preparing for its first global bond sale, and is also looking at structured-finance options, Chief Executive Officer Fabrice Susini said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

The company has also just raised 4 billion riyals ($1.1 billion) from Saudi investors in seven- and 10-year notes, its biggest issuance so far, he said. The refinancing company was set up to buy home loans from banks and other finance companies, freeing up lenders to book more mortgages.

Saudi citizens have complained for years about the availability and affordability of housing, and boosting home ownership is one of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s key goals. The introduction of a mortgage law along with government incentives have now made mortgages one of the main drivers of lending growth for banks in the kingdom.

Despite the rapid increase in mortgage financing in the kingdom “risks remain under control,” Susini said. “The rate of increase of mortgages has been very significant but it’s been from a very low base.”

Oil slips to $68 as rally fizzles out before U.S. supply report | Reuters

Oil slips to $68 as rally fizzles out before U.S. supply report | Reuters

Oil fell to around $68 a barrel on Tuesday in a choppy session, as easing concerns of a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia and U.S. dollar strength countered the prospects for tighter supply due to OPEC+ output curbs.

Crude hit its highest since the start of the pandemic on Monday after Yemen’s Houthi forces fired drones and missiles at Saudi oil sites on Sunday. Saudi Arabia said it thwarted the strike, however, and prices slipped as supply fears eased.

Brent crude was down 59 cents, or 0.9%, at $67.65 by 12:06 p.m. EST (1606 GMT), pulling back after trading as high as $69.33. It reached $71.38 on Monday, the highest since Jan. 8, 2020.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 88 cents to $64.17, after hitting its highest since October 2018 on Monday.

“There’s an expectation that we’re going to see another increase in U.S. crude supplies because refineries remain shut down,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures group.

#Dubai Extends Freeze on Public Service Fees to Support Economy - Bloomberg

Dubai Extends Freeze on Public Service Fees to Support Economy - Bloomberg


Dubai extended the freeze on public service fees until early 2023 as part of efforts to support the Middle East business hub’s economy amid the pandemic.

The move “seeks to strengthen Dubai’s ability to adapt to changing market realities, accelerate the pace of recovery and boost sustainable development,” according to a statement.

“Apart from the extension of the freeze, no new fees will be imposed, except in the case of the introduction of new vital services,” it said. Dubai provided support worth 7.1 billion dirhams ($1.9 billion) to help support businesses during the pandemic.

CVC Capital Plans #Dubai Office, Mideast Hires in Hunt for Deals - Bloomberg

CVC Capital Plans Dubai Office, Mideast Hires in Hunt for Deals - Bloomberg

CVC Capital Partners is expanding its team of advisers in the Middle East and looking to establish a presence in the region’s commercial hub, according to people familiar with the matter.

The private equity firm is planning to open an office in Dubai’s financial district in September, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.

Ozgur Onder, a London-based managing director involved in identifying investment opportunities, will spend more time in Dubai as part of the firm’s expansion plan, the people said. He will be hiring a small team of dealmakers in Dubai, they said.

CVC declined to comment.

Europe’s largest private equity company is on the lookout for new targets in the Middle East a year and a half after clinching its first deal in the region by buying a stake of about 30% in Dubai’s GEMS Education. Last year it also acquired the Greek, Croatian and the UAE businesses of marinas operator D-Marin.

CVC would be the first major international buyout firm to bolster its presence in the region since the collapse of Abraaj in 2018. Private equity companies are turning attention to the Middle East as an abundance of cheap credit and opportunities stemming from the coronavirus crisis create ripe conditions for bigger deals.

Oil buoys #Saudi shares; top lender trips #AbuDhabi | Reuters

Oil buoys Saudi shares; top lender trips Abu Dhabi | Reuters

The Saudi Arabian stock market ended higher on Tuesday, amid rising oil prices as the focus returned to a tighter market, while the Abu Dhabi index retreated, hit by First Abu Dhabi Bank which went ex-dividend.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index advanced over 1%, as all its banking shares gained including Al Rajhi Bank which finished 4.8% higher.

Oil prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf’s financial markets, rose to $69 a barrel on Tuesday as investors focused on prospects for tighter supply and amid growing hopes of a recovery in demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and allies, known as OPEC+, decided on Thursday to broadly stick to output cuts, fuelling a rally.

Crude hit its highest since the start of the pandemic on Monday after Yemen’s Houthi forces fired drones and missiles at Saudi oil sites on Sunday. The kingdom said it thwarted the strike and prices slipped as supply fears eased.

In Abu Dhabi, the index slid 1.8%, with the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank falling 4.8%, roughly equivalent to the dividend payment.

The Qatari index gained 0.7%, with petrochemical maker Industries Qatar rising 2.8%.

However, the index’s gains were capped by losses at utility firm Qatar Electricity and Water and a Barwa Real Estate Company as the duo went ex-dividend.

Dubai’s main share index eased 0.1%, weighed down by a 1.1% drop in sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank.

Pandemic to stall #UAE banks' recovery in early 2021 - A&M | Reuters

Pandemic to stall UAE banks' recovery in early 2021 - A&M | Reuters

The pandemic will continue to affect profitability for banks in the United Arabia Emirates (UAE) in the early quarters of 2021, after a sharp drop in return on equity last year, consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) said on Tuesday.

Return on equity fell to 7.7% in 2020 from 13.3% the previous year, A&M said in a report on the UAE’s top 10 banks.

“We possibly have not turned the corner,” Asad Ahmed, head of Middle East financial services for A&M told a briefing, saying this goes for banks globally as well as in the UAE.

“In terms of the region and the UAE, 2021 will continue to be a year which does not produce stellar results, but hopefully next year onwards we will see the numbers turn around.”

Growth in loans and advances during 2020 slowed sharply to 1.4% from 13.2% in 2019, the report said.

Domestic credit growth in #SaudiArabia to stay strong - S&P | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Domestic credit growth in Saudi Arabia to stay strong - S&P | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Domestic credit growth in Saudi Arabia is likely to stay strong in 2021-2022, following the sharp 14 percent year-on-year increase in 2020, said S&P Global Ratings in a note Tuesday.

“We anticipate solid mortgage and retail loan growth, supported by government efforts to meet Vision 2030 targets and strong demand for housing from Saudi nationals. Over the next couple of years, we forecast that mortgage portfolios will expand by about 30 percent a year.”

The Public Investment Fund has recently announced investment initiatives that are expected to spur corporate credit growth, mostly in construction-related industries. This will offset the gradual lifting of support aimed at easing the impact of the pandemic, S&P said. The COVID-19 support package included the deferral of loans to small and midsize enterprises.

“Overall, we project that credit growth will remain stable at about 10 percent in 2021-2022. This suggests that economic imbalances are in the expansionary phase; we see the risks as intermediate, at this stage.”

#Libya Oil Boss Vows to Up Production, Work With Unity Government - Bloomberg video

Libya Oil Boss Vows to Up Production, Work With Unity Government - Bloomberg

Libya’s state energy company said it would increase oil production and vowed to remain politically neutral as a unity government seeks to stabilize the war-torn OPEC member.

The National Oil Corp. “stands ready to work with the new government, while also keeping out of politics,” Chairman Mustafa Sanalla said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s very important to keep the NOC apolitical. It’s not a political chip for anyone.”


The new government is meant to lead the North African country until December, when elections are scheduled. Prime Minister-designate Mohammed Dbeibah, a businessman, is trying to restore the oil and gas ministry and appoint an minister, a position which hasn’t been held for years -- effectively leaving it in the hands of Sanalla.

Top 10 #UAE banks’ profits shrunk 40% in 2020: A&M | Banking – Gulf News

Top 10 UAE banks’ profits shrunk 40% in 2020: A&M | Banking – Gulf News

The aggregate net profit of the top 10 UAE banks declined by 38.3 per cent year on year in 2020, on the back of lower operating income and increased provisions, according to data analysed by Alvarez & Marsal (A&M).

A&M expects the operating environment for the UAE’s banking sector to remain less volatile in 2021 compared to last year; banks might witness deterioration of their asset quality after the completion of Central Bank of the UAE’s deferral programme in June 2021.

“The anticipated economic recovery in 2021 should support the operating environment and the fundamentals of banks in the UAE. Profitability in the sector has shown signs of vulnerability with declining interest income and increased provisioning weighing on the net profit,” said Asad Ahmed, A&M Managing Director and Head of Middle East Financial Services.

Low asset yields resulting from low interest rates along with higher provisions impacted bank profitability last year. Net interest income (NII) decreased about 2 per cent year on year, as system-wide rates decreased substantially after the Central Bank of the UAE slashed rates to counter the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, net interest margins improved as banks were able to reduce their funding costs further.

Health chain Aster plans $400 million bond, India expansion | Markets – Gulf News

Health chain Aster plans $400 million bond, India expansion | Markets – Gulf News

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd., a Dubai-based operator of hospitals and pharmacies that's expanding across India, is revisiting a potential sale of dollar bonds after pushing back a planned issuance last year.

Aster, which runs 26 hospitals and hundreds of clinics and pharmacies in the Gulf and India, will seek to issue about $400 million of securities possibly in the next three to six months, according to Chairman Azad Moopen. The notes would mature in seven to eight years, and would retire and replace existing debt.

"We have started discussion with the bankers regarding the bond issue," Moopen, 68, said in an interview. The firm decided not to go ahead with the sale early last year because of the Covid-19 pandemic, he said.

Aster is expanding across India, looking to open at least four hospitals there in the next four years. Moopen wants the South Asian nation of nearly 1.4 billion people to account for about a third of the company's business, up from a fifth at present. Growth will come from pent-up desire for quality medical services, he said, calling it a "huge demand-supply gap" .

#Saudi Equities Jump to 2015 Level on Higher Oil Bets: Chart - Bloomberg

Saudi Equities Jump to 2015 Level on Higher Oil Bets: Chart - Bloomberg


Saudi Arabia’s main equities index closed at its highest since June 2015, with more than three-quarters of Tadawul All Share Index members up this year. The gauge has been boosted by bets that crude prices will rise as OPEC+ producers keep a tight leash on supply while economic activity picks up globally. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts estimate that crude, the kingdom’s biggest export, will be at $80 a barrel by the end of the third quarter.

SRC's Susini on #Saudi Mortgage Market and Economy - Bloomberg video

SRC's Susini on Saudi Mortgage Market and Economy - Bloomberg


Fabrice Susini, Saudi Real Estate Refinace Company, CEO discusses the Saudi Arabian mortgage market. He speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg)

Oil rises towards $69 as focus returns to tighter market | Reuters

Oil rises towards $69 as focus returns to tighter market | Reuters

Oil prices rose towards $69 a barrel on Tuesday as investors focused on prospects for tighter supply due to extended OPEC+ output curbs and amid growing hopes of a recovery in demand.

Crude it its highest level since the start of the pandemic on Monday after Yemen’s Houthi forces fired drones and missiles at Saudi oil sites on Sunday. Saudi Arabia said it thwarted the strike and prices slipped as supply fears eased.

Brent crude rose 51 cents, or 0.8%, to $68.75 by 0920 GMT, after trading as low as $67.61. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 34 cents to $65.39.

“Dips have been lately viewed as buying opportunities,” said Tamas Varga of broker PVM. “Last week’s OPEC+ meeting will ensure that the global oil balance will get tighter in the foreseeable future.”

On Monday, Brent rose to $71.38, its highest since Jan. 8, 2020 and U.S. crude hit $67.98, the highest since October 2018.

UPDATE 1- #Israel's Bank Leumi posts Q4 net profit rise, lower deferments | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Israel's Bank Leumi posts Q4 net profit rise, lower deferments | Reuters

Bank Leumi, one of Israel’s two largest lenders, reported a 20% rise in fourth-quarter net profit and said most customers had begun to repay loans deferred due to the pandemic.

Net profit rose to 890 million shekels ($267 million) from 742 million a year earlier reflecting lower overall expenses and higher financing income, Leumi said.

Net interest income rose to 2.22 billion shekels from 2.16 billion, though loan loss expenses to protect against defaults increased to 270 million shekels from 158 million.

During the pandemic and through Jan. 31, Leumi said it deferred mortgage repayments of 900 million shekels and loans to small businesses totalling 1.2 billion shekels. Only 360 million of mortgage payments and 170 million shekels of business loans still have deferred status, it said.

It also said it approved a total of 6.4 billion shekels in business loans as part of the state-backed loan fund for businesses hurt by the crisis and a loan fund for high-risk businesses.

United Arab Emirates attracts corporate billions to climb tax haven ranking | Reuters

United Arab Emirates attracts corporate billions to climb tax haven ranking | Reuters

The United Arab Emirates, a magnet for the globe’s ultra-rich, has also emerged as one of the fastest-growing corporate tax havens, according to a study released on Tuesday that highlighted a $200 billion-plus money flow to the country.

The index by the Tax Justice Network, which highlights countries that attract companies to shrink their tax bills, added the United Arab Emirates to its top-10 ranking that includes Switzerland and Bermuda.

Britain’s offshore territories the British Virgin Islands (BVI), the Cayman Islands and Bermuda were named as the most significant jurisdictions used by companies to minimise their tax, followed by the Netherlands.

The United Arab Emirates joined the top ranking at number 10 after multinationals rerouted over $218 billion of foreign direct investment via the Netherlands to the UAE to save taxes, the study said, bolstering financial activity by almost 180%.

A Dutch finance ministry spokeswoman said it had introduced a withholding tax to target flows of money to low-tax countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Bermuda, and to prevent the Netherlands being used as a conduit. It, however, estimates that the money flows are lower.

Oil Flirting With $70 Challenges World’s Economic Recovery - Bloomberg

Oil Flirting With $70 Challenges World’s Economic Recovery - Bloomberg

The spike in oil prices has focused attention on how the steady rise in energy costs is threatening to create a drag on the global economic recovery and stoking fears of inflation.

After surging more than 30% this year on coordinated supply constraints by major exporters and demand returning from the depths of Covid-19 crisis, a missile attack Sunday on a key Saudi Arabian export facility sent Brent crude, the international benchmark, above $70 a barrel for the first time since January 2020.

While prices have since pulled back, the impact on inflation and the overall global recovery depends on how sustained the underlying rally proves to be.



#Dubai's business recovery continues, but travel and tourism sector curbs growth | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Dubai's business recovery continues, but travel and tourism sector curbs growth | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Business conditions in Dubai continued to strengthen in February as output and employment numbers rose amid growing confidence among firms for a strong economic recovery in 2021.

However, the rate of expansion was stymied by a renewed fall in new business inflows that was centered on the travel & tourism sector, a new survey from HIS Markit said.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Dubai Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posted 50.9 in February, up slightly from 50.6 in January and signalling a third successive monthly improvement in operating conditions.

The IHS Markit survey covers the Dubai non-oil private sector economy, with additional sector data published for travel & tourism, wholesale & retail and construction.

The sales volumes in the non-oil sector fell for the first time since May 2020, mostly due to increased restrictions on consumer-facing services during the month amid efforts to suppress a recent rise in COVID-19 cases.



Middle East stocks: MidGulf markets dip as lender FAB, others go ex-div | Reuters

Middle East stocks: MidGulf markets dip as lender FAB, others go ex-div | Reuters

Most major Gulf share markets traded in negative territory early on Tuesday as many stocks, notably First Abu Dhabi Bank, traded ex-dividend.

The Abu Dhabi index fell 2.1% with FAB, falling 5.1%, roughly equivalent to the dividend payment.

In Dubai, the index eased 0.7%, extending losses for a fourth consecutive session. Blue-chip developer Emaar Properties declined 1.9%, while Dubai Islamic Bank retreated 1.3%.

Dubai’s non-oil private sector recorded its third straight month of expansion in February, but growth remained sluggish due to a downturn in the travel and tourism sector, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The Qatari index opened 0.1%, also dragged down by shares trading ex-dividend, including Barwa Real Estate and Qatar Fuel, which dropped 4.2% and 1.8% respectively.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index edged up 0.3%, with Al Rajhi Bank gaining 1% and Saudi Basic Industries (Sabic) increasing 0.4%.

Saudi state news agency SPA said late on Monday that King Salman approved initiatives aimed at assisting firms and individuals operating in support of Islamic pilgrimages.

Separately, Investments by Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund Public Investment Fund will support credit growth among Saudi kingdom, ratings agency S&P Global Ratings said on Monday.

The fund plans to inject at least 150 billion riyals ($40 billion) annually in the local economy until 2025.

Oil prices fall as #Saudi supply risks abate, stronger dollar | Reuters

Oil prices fall as Saudi supply risks abate, stronger dollar | Reuters

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains, on receding fears of a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, after an attack on its export facilities, and on concerns a stronger U.S. dollar would crimp demand.

Prices rose earlier on expectations of a recovery in the global economy after the U.S. Senate approved a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and on a likely drawdown in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world’s biggest fuel consumer.

Brent crude futures for May fell by 46 cents, or 0.7%, to $67.78 a barrel by 0736 GMT, after earlier rising to a session high of $69.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April slipped by 52 cents, or 0.8%, to $65.53, after earlier rising to as high as $65.68.

“Crude prices are declining as the strong dollar trade shows no signs of weakening,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.