Israel-Iran: Breaking the Mideast Cycle of Revenge in the Aeschylus Trap - Bloomberg

Israel-Iran: Breaking the Mideast Cycle of Revenge in the Aeschylus Trap - Bloomberg

Ancient Greeks make great geopolitical guides. Seemingly everyone now analyzes the contest between China and the US in terms of the Thucydides Trap — the historian argued that war between rising Athens and established power Sparta became inevitable, because the incumbent will always try to protect its position. To understand the terrifying situation in the Middle East, maybe we should invoke Greek tragedy and ask if the world can escape the Aeschylus Trap.

Aeschylus was the first of the great Greek tragedians whose works have survived, and he’s most famous for his trilogy The Oresteia. It centers on the notion of blood grudge; each time someone achieves vengeance, someone else must wreak vengeance on them, and so the tragic cycle continues. In the Oresteia’s first play, Clytemnestra kills her husband Agamemnon to avenge their daughter Iphegenia, whom he’d sacrificed to try to ensure victory in the Trojan War. In the second, their son Orestes kills Clytemnestra to avenge Agamemnon. In the third, titled The Furies or Eumenides, Orestes is pursued by the Furies who try to drive him to madness and suicide with guilt. A “blood grudge” forces all the characters into never-ending escalation and violence. No death can go unavenged, and the violence can only escalate.

The relevance to the dynamics of the Middle East is fairly clear. Iranian missile strikes on Israel over the weekend were what the analyst Tina Fordham of Fordham Global Foresight describes as “the biggest uptick in Middle East geopolitical risk for 30 years.” Wall Street investors have hurried to assess the impact. Here are some salient points:

• It was the first direct attack Iran has ever made on Israel (as opposed to acting through surrogates).
• Iran also seized an Israeli-linked container ship in the Straits of Hormuz.
• Nobody was killed, and 99% of the missiles were thwarted before reaching their targets.
• Iran says the issue can be deemed concluded and appears not to have aimed at big civilian centers.
• Experts also point out that it went out of its way not to attack the US.
• Western allies who helped the Israeli defense are already strongly calling for Israel to declare the issue closed.

With an Israeli counterattack a real possibility in response to such an unprecedented if failed assault, Fordham argues that this is “the closest we have come to full-scale regional war in the Middle East for decades.” There will be collateral effects. Fordham suggests that the success of the defense will mean “increased pressure on the US and Europe to supply Ukraine with air defenses on par with Israel’s,” while allies in Asia want to see that the US upholds its promises.

Most Gulf markets rise after #Iran attack | Reuters

Most Gulf markets rise after Iran attack | Reuters

Most stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Monday as investors kept geopolitical concerns in check after Iran's weekend attacks on Israel.

Iran's attack involved more than 300 missiles and drones, and was the first on Israel by another country in more than three decades, raising fears of a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East.

The attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage.

Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab gained 0.3%, helped by a 6.8% jump in ACWA Power (2082.SE), opens new tab.

ACWA was up for a sixth consecutive session, building on gains as the market reopened after being closed last week for the Eid holiday.

On April 3, the company announced the start of partial commercial operations of its Sirdarya gas-turbine plant in Uzbekistan.

However, oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab retreated 1%.

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - showed traders had largely priced in a retaliatory attack from Iran, which could lead to more strictly enforced sanctions on Iranian oil.

Brent crude futures peaked at $92.18 a barrel last week, the highest level since October. Monday's 1% drop left Brent back below $90 per barrel.

The Qatari benchmark (.QSI), opens new tab closed 0.8% higher, led by a 3.5% rise in Qatar Gas Transport (QGTS.QA), opens new tab.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab was up 0.2%. Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab reversed early losses to conclude flat.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab jumped 3.9% with most of its constituents in positive territory, including Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab, up 3.1%.

GFH seeks to acquire Ithmaar Holding’s portfolios

GFH seeks to acquire Ithmaar Holding’s portfolios

GFH Financial Group announced plans to acquire the financing and investment portfolios of Ithmaar Holding, according to a bourse disclosure.

GFH highlighted that discussions are in progress to finalise the transaction structure, which is subject to regulatory approvals.

Meanwhile, the transaction is expected to have a positive and significant impact on GFH’s financials and increase the group’s returns.

Besides trading on DFM, Ithmaar Holding is also listed on the Bahrain Bourse, while GFH is cross-listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX), Bahrain Bourse, and Boursa Kuwait.

In the 12-month period that ended on 31 December 2023, the consolidated net profits of GFH increased by 7.69% year-on-year (YoY) to $105.23 million from $97.71 million.

Last year, Ithmaar Holding turned profitable at $13.35 million, against net losses valued at $20.96 million in 2022.

Major Gulf markets mixed amid conflict in the region | Reuters

Major Gulf markets mixed amid conflict in the region | Reuters

Major stock markets in the Gulf were mixed in early trade on Monday after Iran launched a retaliatory attack on Israel, stoking fears of a wider regional conflict.

Iran's attack involved more than 300 missiles and drones, and was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East.

The attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system. Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab edged 0.2% higher, helped by a 0.8% rise in ACWA Power (2082.SE), opens new tab and a 0.9% increase in petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries (2010.SE), opens new tab.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab gained 0.8%, as almost all its constituents were in positive territory including Qatar Gas Transport (QGTS.QA), opens new tab, which advanced 2.6%.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab, which traded after a five-session Eid break, dropped 0.4%, hit by a 0.5% fall in toll operator Salik (SALIK.DU), opens new tab and a 1.8% decrease in budget airline Air Arabia (AIRA.DU), opens new tab.

Major airlines across the Middle East announced they would resume operations in the region after cancelling or rerouting some flights as Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel through Saturday night into Sunday.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab, which also traded after a 5-session break, eased 0.1%.