Tuesday 19 January 2021

Oil gains on stimulus optimism ahead of Biden inauguration | Reuters

Oil gains on stimulus optimism ahead of Biden inauguration | Reuters

Oil prices climbed with U.S. stock markets on Tuesday ahead of Joe Biden’s inauguration as U.S. president on optimism that more government stimulus will eventually lift global economic growth.

Brent futures for March delivery rose $1.15, or 2.1%, to settle at $55.90 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 62 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $52.98. Front-month February WTI futures expire on Wednesday.

Wall Street’s main indexes rose after upbeat earnings from big U.S. banks and comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen ahead of Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday.

Yellen urged lawmakers to “act big” on the next coronavirus relief package, adding that the benefits outweigh the costs of a higher debt burden.

Middle Eastern Wealth Funds Go Bigger Than Ever Into U.S.: Chart - Bloomberg

Middle Eastern Wealth Funds Go Bigger Than Ever Into U.S.: Chart - Bloomberg



Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds poured the most money yet into the U.S. last year, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund led the ranks in the past decade, while direct investments from Abu Dhabi and Qatar fluctuated. Despite a plunge in oil prices, large sovereign wealth funds from Gulf Cooperation Council states see the U.S. as a favored destination, while they “cherry-pick among the European nations,” SWFI said.

#Saudi Oil-Market Pessimism Vindicated as Demand Risks Grow - Bloomberg

Saudi Oil-Market Pessimism Vindicated as Demand Risks Grow - Bloomberg

For Saudi Arabia, bad news in the oil market has rarely been such a vindication.

Two weeks ago, the world’s biggest crude exporter stunned energy traders by announcing that -- rather than restore halted production as planned -- it would slash supplies by a further 1 million barrels a day.

The resurgent pandemic necessitated “preemptive” action to protect the oil recovery, said the kingdom’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. That ran counter to the view of Saudi’s OPEC+ ally, Russia, but since then plenty of evidence has emerged that Riyadh made the right call.

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency slashed forecasts for world oil demand in the first quarter as countries hunker down to contain new coronavirus outbreaks. China, which has powered crude’s recovery until now, is locking down cities again and discouraging travel over the Lunar New Year holidays.

OPEC 'cautiously optimistic' oil market will recover in 2021 | Reuters

OPEC 'cautiously optimistic' oil market will recover in 2021 | Reuters

OPEC’s secretary general said on Tuesday he was cautiously optimistic the oil market would recover this year from the slump in demand brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

Monthly meetings of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia - a group known as OPEC+ - are there to stop an imbalance from re-emerging, OPEC’s Mohammad Barkindo told a virtual forum.

“We all agree that the recovery is fragile, there are still more uncertainties, but we are cautiously optimistic that the recovery will materialise this year,” Barkindo said at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum.

Oil prices have rallied to an 11-month high this month, helped by a Jan. 5 decision by most members of OPEC+ to hold production steady in February and a pledge by Saudi Arabia to voluntarily cut output.

#Qatar National Bank sells $1 billion in five-year bonds - document | Reuters

Qatar National Bank sells $1 billion in five-year bonds - document | Reuters

Qatar National Bank, the Gulf’s biggest lender, sold $1 billion in five-year bonds at 95 basis points (bps) over mid-swaps after attracting more than $2.5 billion in orders for the debt sale, a document showed on Tuesday.

It had given initial price guidance of around 120 bps over mid-swaps earlier on Tuesday, another document also from one of the banks arranging the deal showed.

The deal comes as Gulf borrowers line up debt issues following the lull around the U.S. elections and winter holidays.

Bahrain and Saudi Arabia’s biggest lender National Commercial Bank (NCB) are both expected to tap the international debt markets this week.

NCB is seeking to raise $1 billion with its planned sale of U.S. dollar-denominated Tier 1 sukuk, or Islamic bonds, two financial sources said.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Telecom stocks power #UAE gains; #Saudi declines | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Telecom stocks power UAE gains; Saudi declines | Nasdaq

Markets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) finished stronger on Tuesday, powered by the country's telecoms firms, which surged on the prospect non-UAE nationals' shareholdings could rise.

The Abu Dhabi benchmark .ADI firmed for a third straight session, ending 3.1% higher, after finishing the previous session up about 4%.

The index was boosted by a roughly 15% jump in Emirates Telecommunications (Etisalat) ETISALAT.AD, the only telecom-focused stock in the benchmark.

Etisalat saw its best day in nearly six years as the company called a board meeting for Wednesday to discuss increasing the foreign ownership limit in the firm.

Dubai's main share index .DFMGI gained 1%, with Emirates Integrated Telecommunications DU.DU jumping 14.6% for the stock's best session since December 2014.

Emirates Integrated Telecommunications, the sole communication services stock in the benchmark, has also called a board meeting for Wednesday to discuss raising the ownership of foreign investors.

Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, changed its company laws late last year to allow more foreign investment as it seeks to boost private sector activity.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI ended 0.3% lower.

Saudi Telecom 7010.SE was the worst performer in the benchmark, falling 2.6%, while index heavyweight Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE declined 0.4%.

The Saudi benchmark has now dropped in three of the last four sessions.

Elsewhere, Qatar's main index .QSI lost 0.9%, dragged down mainly by a 3.7% decline in Industries Qatar IQCD.QA.

Financials stocks also drove the losses in the Qatari index, with Masraf Al Rayan MARK.QA and Qatar International Islamic Bank QIIB.QA shedding 1.3% and about 2%, respectively.

Separately, Qatar Investment Authority is generating strong returns on a multibillion-dollar bet it made on distressed debt and highly-rated bonds at the start of the COVID-19 crisis, two sources familiar with its move told Reuters.

Column: Oil price forecasts fall in the wake of the pandemic | Reuters

Column: Oil price forecasts fall in the wake of the pandemic | Reuters

Oil prices are expected to remain lower even once the coronavirus pandemic is over and the economy recovers.

Before a perfect storm hit the industry in 2020, medium-term price expectations had been firmly anchored around $65-70 per barrel, based on the average annual price of Brent crude.

While prices cycled higher and lower in the short term, there was a strong and resilient consensus they would return to this level over a five-year time horizon.

But the extraordinary shocks to production and consumption last year have shaken this confidence and caused most observers to cut their medium-term expectations by around $5 per barrel to $60-65.

Brent is expected to average $55-60 per barrel this year, down by $10 from a previous forecast of $65-70, as the industry gradually pulls out of last year’s slump.

By 2024, Brent prices are expected to average $60-65 per barrel, but that is still down by $5 from a forecast of $65-70 previously.

Oil prices rise as investors look to higher demand seen in second half | Reuters

Oil prices rise as investors look to higher demand seen in second half | Reuters

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as optimism that government stimulus will eventually lift global economic growth and oil demand trumped concerns that renewed COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns globally are cooling fuel consumption.

Brent crude futures for March rose 72 cents to $55.47 a barrel by 1152 GMT after slipping 35 cents in the previous session.

“The perception that any retracement will be quick as confidence in economic and oil demand recovery is unlikely to fade away,” said PVM analysts in a note.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $52.65 a barrel, up 29 cents. There was no settlement on Monday as U.S. markets were closed for a public holiday. Front-month February WTI futures expire on Wednesday.

Bahrain Plans to Sell Dollar Bonds to Plug Budget Deficit - Bloomberg

Bahrain Plans to Sell Dollar Bonds to Plug Budget Deficit - Bloomberg

Bahrain started marketing a three-tranche dollar bond to help plug one of the widest deficits in the region.

The Gulf Arab kingdom is selling benchmark-size seven-year debt, 12-year securities and/or notes maturing in 30 years, according to a person familiar with the matter, who’s not authorized to speak publicly and asked not to be identified. Benchmark typically means the equivalent of at least $500 million.

Despite a $10 billion bailout package pledged by its wealthier neighbors in 2018, Bahrain’s public finances have been under strain from the twin shock of the pandemic and lower oil prices. The International Monetary Fund projects Bahrain’s budget deficit to be at about 9.2% of gross domestic product this year.

“They are coming because they need to continue to fund fiscal deficits,” said Abdul Kadir Hussain, the Dubai-based head of fixed-income asset management at Arqaam Capital. “There is appetite for non-investment grade credit as people are chasing yield.”

Queensgate Investments Loses Ruling on Racism, Fraud Claims - Bloomberg

Queensgate Investments Loses Ruling on Racism, Fraud Claims - Bloomberg

A private equity fund backed by families in Hong Kong and Qatar lost a bid to keep claims of fraud, racism and anti-Semitism away from public scrutiny.

London-based Queensgate Investments LLP wanted to hold further court proceedings in private. But Judge James Tayler said the upcoming hearing should be in public, saying investors and others shouldn’t be prevented from learning about claims alleging financial misconduct.

“It may well be that mere allegations may affect their investment decisions but, save in the most exceptional circumstances, that is a necessary consequence of open justice,” said Tayler, a judge on the Employment Appeal Tribunal in London.

Jonathan Millet, Queensgate’s former head of acquisition, said in an employment lawsuit that he filed after he was laid off last year that the fund’s chief executive misled investors and lenders.

Aramco to do 'heavy lifting' in #Saudi fiscal adjustment - BofA | Reuters

Aramco to do 'heavy lifting' in Saudi fiscal adjustment - BofA | Reuters

Saudi oil giant Aramco will likely need to transfer significant amounts of money to the Saudi government and the sovereign fund, Public Investment Fund (PIF), as Saudi Arabia puts its finances in order after the coronavirus slump, Bank of America said.

Aramco - which listed in 2019 in a record $29.4 billion share sale - is likely to “do the heavy lifting” to boost state coffers and support mega-projects spearheaded by the PIF, BofA said in a research note.

“The medium-term fiscal adjustment relies on the strength of Saudi Aramco’s balance sheet through sustained high transfers to the sovereign and to the PIF.”

Saudi Arabia increased non-oil revenue last year. Aramco, in which the government still owns a 98.2% stake, still accounted for more than half its total income.

The world’s top oil exporter aims to diversify its revenue away from crude and create jobs in new economic sectors and the PIF is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s vehicle of choice for transforming the economy.

#UAE to see sharp recovery this year: FAB report | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE to see sharp recovery this year: FAB report | ZAWYA MENA Edition

The UAE is likely to see a V-shaped recovery this year, as the economy emerges from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report issued by First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) on Tuesday.

The recovery will hinge on factors such as the rebound in tourism and oil prices, as well as the country’s strong links to emerging markets, the bank said in its “2021 Global Investment Outlook Report: Paving the Path for Our Investors to Grow Stronger”.

The UAE Central Bank has projected that the national economy should grow by around 2.5 percent overall after falling by around six percent in 2020. The non-oil sectors are expected to post a 3.6 percent growth, after shrinking by five percent.

FAB cited signs of improvement for incoming tourism due to pent-up travel demand and the country’s successful management of the pandemic.

The World Expo that is scheduled to open in October this year will add further strength, while the expected improvement in tourism, partly fueled by the COVID-19 immunisation drive, will have a positive effect on other sectors, including retail and real estate activity. According to health authorities, the country is well on its way to vaccinate half of its population by the end of March .

European, Middle Eastern & African Stocks - Bloomberg #UAE #Kuwait #Israel #SaudiArabia #Qatar close

European, Middle Eastern & African Stocks - Bloomberg #UAE #Kuwait #Israel #SaudiArabia #Qatar close







#UAE Targets Low-Cost Blue Hydrogen to Cut Emissions by 24% - Bloomberg

UAE Targets Low-Cost Blue Hydrogen to Cut Emissions by 24% - Bloomberg

Oil and natural gas producer the United Arab Emirates aims to become one of the world’s lowest-cost producers of hydrogen, helping in the Middle Eastern state’s effort to slash polluting carbon emissions by nearly a quarter.

The country will use carbon-capture technologies to create what’s known as blue hydrogen, supplying cleaner energy, Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and UAE Industry Minister, said at a virtual conference on Tuesday. Abu Dhabi holds most of the oil and gas in the OPEC member state and is the country’s capital.

Adnoc is expanding its capacity for technologies that can prevent carbon emissions from being released into the atmosphere and that use the resulting gas for further oil production by injecting it into wells. The company already has one project to capture, store and use carbon.

Using that technology, “we believe we can be one of the lowest-cost and largest producers of blue hydrogen in the world,” Al Jaber said. The UAE sees “no credible way” of meeting global climate goals without carbon capture and storage.



Exclusive: #Qatar fund put pandemic bets on distressed debt, high-grade bonds - sources | Reuters

Exclusive: Qatar fund put pandemic bets on distressed debt, high-grade bonds - sources | Reuters

Qatar Investment Authority is generating strong returns on a multi-billion dollar bet it made on distressed debt and highly rated bonds at the start of the COVID-19 crisis, two sources familiar with its move said.

QIA, a sovereign wealth fund with assets of $300 billion, owns department store owner Harrods and stakes in Barclays and prime properties such as Canary Wharf in London, bet that investment grade bonds would rebound from lows hit in March, investing in both sovereigns and corporates, they said.

It was not alone in such a shift, as sovereign wealth funds invested a net $4.5 billion across U.S. fixed income in the third quarter of 2020, the most since at least the end of 2017, latest data from eVestment shows.

The S&P 500 Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index has gained about 20% since hitting a low of 417.88 in mid-March.

And in a departure from its previous portfolio purchases, QIA also put significant sums into so-called distressed credit, including funds that help struggling companies.

Oil prices rise as optimism over economy outweighs fuel demand concerns | Reuters

Oil prices rise as optimism over economy outweighs fuel demand concerns | Reuters

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as optimism that government stimulus will buoy global economic growth and oil demand trumped concerns that renewed COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns globally could cool fuel consumption.

Brent crude futures for March gained 55 cents, or 1%, to $55.30 a barrel by 0737 GMT after slipping 35 cents in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $52.52 a barrel, up 16 cents, or 0.3%. There was no settlement on Monday as U.S. markets were closed for a public holiday. Front-month February WTI futures expire on Wednesday.

Investors are upbeat about demand in China, the world’s top crude oil importer, after data released on Monday showed its refinery output rose 3% to a new record in 2020. China was also the only major economy in the world to avoid a contraction last year as many nations struggled to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

MIDEAST STOCKS- #AbuDhabi outperforms as major Gulf markets rise | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Abu Dhabi outperforms as major Gulf markets rise | Nasdaq

Major stock markets in the Gulf traded higher on Tuesday, led by indexes in the United Arab Emirates where telecoms firms surged on prospects that non-UAE nationals' shareholdings could rise.

In Abu Dhabi, the benchmark .ADI rose 2.1%, boosted by an 11.1% jump in Emirates Telecommunications (Etisalat) ETISALAT.AD.

Etisalat saw its biggest percentage gain in 10 months as the company called a board meeting for Wednesday, to discuss increasing the foreign ownership limit in the company.

Dubai's main share index .DFMGI gained 1%, with Emirates Integrated Telecommunications DU.DU jumping more than 10%, its biggest intraday gain since December 2014, after it also called a board meeting for Wednesday to discuss raising the ownership of foreign investors.

Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, changed its company laws late last year to allow more foreign investment as it seeks to boost private sector activity.

In Qatar, the index .QSI rose 0.2%, with Qatar National Bank (QNB) QNBK.QA rising 0.9%.

QNB, the Gulf's biggest bank by assets, expects its business in Saudi Arabia will pick up only gradually after reviving its Riyadh branch that was dormant for more than three years due to a diplomatic and economic rift.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI edged up 0.1%, supported by a 0.4% gain in Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE.

#Dubai, party haven amid pandemic, faces its biggest surge - #UAE

Dubai, party haven amid pandemic, faces its biggest surge

Masks off the minute you step inside. Bars packed and pulsing like it’s 2019. Social media stars waving bottles of champagne. DJs spinning party tunes through multi-hour brunches.

Since becoming one of the world’s first destinations to open up for tourism, Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, has promoted itself as the ideal pandemic vacation spot. It cannot afford otherwise, analysts say, as the virus shakes the foundations of the city-state’s economy.

With its cavernous malls, frenetic construction and legions of foreign workers, Dubai was built on the promise of globalization, drawing largely from the aviation, hospitality and retail sectors — all hard hit by the virus.

Now reality is catching up to the big-dreaming emirate. With peak tourism season in full swing, coronavirus infections are surging to unprecedented heights. Daily case counts have nearly tripled in the past month, forcing Britain to slam shut its travel corridor with Dubai last week. But in the face of a growing economic crisis, the city won’t lock down.

“Dubai’s economy is a house of cards,” said Matthew Page, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Its competitive advantage is being a place where rules don’t apply.”

#UAE Phone Operators Surge on Plan to Raise Foreign Ownership - Bloomberg

UAE Phone Operators Surge on Plan to Raise Foreign Ownership - Bloomberg

The two main phone operators in the United Arab Emirates surged after saying they may raise limits on foreign ownership, joining others in the region seeking to attract more overseas investment.

Etisalat and Du both rose as much as 15% shortly after the open in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, the maximum allowed by the exchanges. Etisalat climbed to a record high, while Du traded at the highest level since 2016. The shares trimmed gains to 11% as of 11:15 a.m. in the UAE.

A higher cap on foreign ownership will allow index providers such as MSCI Inc. and FTSE Russell to consider an increase of the stock’s weight in emerging-market equities benchmarks, triggering passive inflows.

Etisalat could lure total inflows of about $634 million from a higher weight in the MSCI and FTSE indexes, if the limit is increased to 40%, according to estimates by Noaman Khalid, associate director of indices macroeconomics and strategy at Arqaam Capital. For Du, inflows could take longer to materialize due to liquidity issues, he said.



#Qatar Wealth Fund Plans Asia Push to Diversify From Europe, U.S. - Bloomberg

Qatar Wealth Fund Plans Asia Push to Diversify From Europe, U.S. - Bloomberg

Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund is looking east for deals in an effort to diversify an investment portfolio heavily weighted toward North America and Europe.

Asia “has been very much on our radar screen,” Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Sheikh Mohammed is also chairman of the Qatar Investment Authority, which manages about $300 billion of assets and ranks as the world’s 11th-largest wealth fund, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute.

“It’s not only from a growth perspective, but also from a diversification perspective,” he said, pointing to substantial investments in Europe over the past decade. “Asia didn’t take the fair portion of the investments,” although North American deals will remain a priority.

In Gulf’s Tug-of-War Over Multinationals, #UAE Looks to Keep Edge - Bloomberg

In Gulf’s Tug-of-War Over Multinationals, UAE Looks to Keep Edge - Bloomberg

The United Arab Emirates can stand its ground against Saudi Arabia’s effort to redraw the Gulf’s corporate map by enticing multinationals to move their headquarters to Riyadh, according to Abu Dhabi’s Investment Office.

Competition is heating up across the region as governments prepare for a post-pandemic world and race to diversify their economies away from oil.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said investment opportunities in the kingdom will amount to $6 trillion over the next decade, half of which represent new projects. The Arab world’s largest economy is offering incentives to convince multinationals in industries such as IT, finance and oil services to relocate their regional headquarters, the Financial Times reported this month.

Asked about the initiative by the UAE’s bigger neighbor, the director general of the Abu Dhabi Investment Office, Tariq Bin Hendi, said his country and its capital aren’t at risk of losing their “competitive advantage.”

#UAE stocks gain $5.8bln as transactions cross $272mln | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE stocks gain $5.8bln as transactions cross $272mln | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE financial markets on Monday posted decent gains of around AED21.5 billion in market cap driven by the realty and banking blue chips amid increased transactions that crossed the one billion dirham mark.

The upbeat sentiments saw ADX closing higher around 4 pct than the last session at 5,489 pts and Dubai's main stocks index edging up 1.15 pct to 2,726 pts.

In the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, FAB jumped 7.8 pct to AED15.10; ADCB to AED6.45; Aldar Properties to AED3.34; ADNOC Distribution to AED3.88 and ADQ to AED42.3.

In Dubai Financial Market, Emaar Properties rose to AED4.06, with Emaar Malls edging up to AED1.94 and Aramex to AED4.41.

A total of 7,748 deals were conducted worth around AED1.04 bn over 358 mn shares in both bourses.