Wednesday 16 October 2013

Why Does Saudi Arabia Fear the United States? (HAL, SLB)

Why Does Saudi Arabia Fear the Unite States? (HAL, SLB):

"This segment is from Tuesday's edition of "Digging for Value", in which sector analysts Joel South and Taylor Muckerman discuss energy & materials news with host Alison Southwick. The twice-weekly show can be viewed on Tuesdays & Thursdays. It can also be found on Twitter, along with our extended coverage of the energy & materials sectors @TMFEnergy.

Earlier this year, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal ended the guessing game as to whether or not OPEC's leading oil producing state feared that United States oil production could harm Saudi Arabia's economy. News flash...it can. To help assuage these fears, Saudi Aramco, the nation's state run oil company, has put the energy industry on notice. It is planning "massive" spending to target multiple areas of growth within the country, and that should benefit equipment and service providers that have already seen action within the country.

Given the company's current $40 billion capital expenditure plan, even higher spending should be a boon for the likes of Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) which have been involved in both on- and off-shore oil and natural gas drilling in Saudi Arabia. "

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India: reforms and the electoral cycle – pause or paralysis? | beyondbrics

India: reforms and the electoral cycle – pause or paralysis? | beyondbrics:

"Commentators have a long list of gripes with Indian policy makers: paralysing land laws; mixed messages on foreign direct investment; and labour laws that make barriers of exit into barriers of entry. Clearly structural reforms are needed to kickstart Asia’s third largest economy.

With elections due next year, the hope is that this is just pause mode, and a change in policy will come with a change in government. So let’s use a little history to see what we can expect in the run up to the election, with the help of a new report from Société Générale.

Source: Soc Gen report
"

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Game changer: Swiss banks ditch secrecy — RT Business

Game changer: Swiss banks ditch secrecy — RT Business:

"Switzerland, the world’s largest offshore wealth center, worth an estimated $2.2 trillion in assets, has signed an agreement to share financial information with nearly 60 other countries, which could completely change the country’s financial landscape.

The country has made a giant leap towards banking transparency after it signed a convention with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) agreeing to exchange data with 60 member countries.

Switzerland already has bilateral tax collection agreements with the UK and Austria, but the move to chip away another layer of the country's infamous banking secrecy was prompted by international pressure from the US, Germany, and France, "

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Guest post: merger of Russia’s high courts, made in heaven? | beyondbrics

Guest post: merger of Russia’s high courts, made in heaven? | beyondbrics:

"
By Roman Khodykin of Berwin Leighton Paisner

Last week, following the announcement of president Vladimir Putin’s decision to liquidate the Supreme Arbitration Court and subordinate all commercial courts to another branch of the judiciary, about one in eight Supreme Arbitration Court judges and a number from other commercial courts immediately tendered their resignations in protest. Are they right to be so concerned about the impact of the reforms?

Since the Soviet era Russia has had two independent branches of the judiciary – general jurisdiction courts and so-called “arbitration” (or commercial) courts. Each branch has its own highest authority: the Supreme Court and the Supreme Arbitration Court."

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Ukrainian stocks wildly mixed in Tuesday trading - Business - News - Ukraine Business Online

Ukrainian stocks wildly mixed in Tuesday trading - Business - News - Ukraine Business Online:

"Tuesday trading in Ukrainian stocks

Concorde Capital provides more on yesterday’s trading in today’s market comment:

“Ukrainian equities were led by a surge in demand for iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO LN, +4.9%) on the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday, October 15 after miner Rio Tinto reported a strong production update. Ferrexpo has advanced 14.4% in four straight positive sessions. Poultry producer MHP (MHPC LI) got a 2.9% boost from its third-quarter production report. The WIG Ukraine Index of Warsaw-traded stocks slid 1.4%, pulled down by selling in its most liquid stock, grain trader Kernel (KER PW, -3.1%). The Ukrainian Exchange (UX) Index of Kyiv-traded stocks gained 1.3%, driven by demand for Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL UK, +4.9%), which released on October 15 statement denying that it’s under sale.”"

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Ukraine oligarch Firtash backs new UK charm offensive | beyondbrics

Ukraine oligarch Firtash backs new UK charm offensive | beyondbrics:

"
Firtash: brighter side
The first associations that come to mind for many Brits when Ukraine is mentioned are likely things such as Chernobyl; the 2012 European football tournament; the 2004 Orange Revolution; Yulia Tymoshenko; Europe’s breadbasket (perhaps); and billionaire oligarchs who, along with Russian counterparts, have bought up some of London’s most expensive flats.

One of them, billionaire Dmitry Firtash (pictured) – a chemicals-to-energy magnate and former partner of Russia’s Gazprom in the supplying natural gas to Ukraine and Europe – hopes to show Ukraine’s brighter side.

Along with his wife Lada, Firtash, who finances a Ukrainian programme at Cambridge University, is sponsoring this week’s ‘Days of Ukraine in the UK’ festival."

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Ukraine cuts foreign trade deficit by $2.7 billion | Positions and Promotions

Ukraine cuts foreign trade deficit by $2.7 billion | Positions and Promotions:

"
The deficit of Ukraine's foreign trade in goods in the first eight months of 2013 shrank by $2.7 billion compared to the same period in 2012, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

"The deficit amounted to $7.397 billion (in January-August 2012 the deficit was $10.11 billion)," reads the statement.

The ratio of coverage of imports by exports was 0.85 (0.82 in January-August 2012). According to the State Statistics Service, in January-August 2013 exports of goods shrank by 9.1% year-on-year, to $41.128 billion. Meanwhile, imports fell by 12.4 %, to $48.524 billion."

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Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum invested $1.1 billion in Khor Mor | Positions and Promotions

Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum invested $1.1 billion in Khor Mor | Positions and Promotions:

"Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum reported operating results for their major operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. More than 402 billion cubic feet of gas and 20 million barrels equivalent of liquids have been produced.

As joint operators of the Khor Mor Field on behalf of the Pearl Consortium, they are currently producing an average of 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, with total investment of $1.1 billion and total cumulative production of close to 100 million boe. This is the largest investment and production in the oil & gas sector of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

The daily production includes 335 million cubic feet of gas per day and 14,100 barrels of condensate, with an LPG capacity of over 1,000 tonnes per day. A maximum production rate of 87,700 boe per day was also achieved."

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$7b Expo 2020 spend won’t pressure Dubai - Khaleej Times

$7b Expo 2020 spend won’t pressure Dubai - Khaleej Times:

"According to economists, an Expo 2020 win would boost Dubai’s local economy up to one per cent.

Hosting World Expo 2020, which requires $7 billion in capital spending, will put relatively little financial pressure on Dubai’s government, EFG-Hermes said.

Wael Ziada, head of research at EFG-Hermes, said Dubai’s budgeted $7 billion in capital spending for the Expo bid includes $1.4 billion for a metro extension, most of which is likely to be spent towards the end of the decade.

In a research report, Ziada argued that Expo 2020 is a good fit with Dubai’s existing strengths.

He said the emirate’s economy is likely to develop along the same path regardless of whether Dubai is awarded the right to host Expo 2020 on November 27."

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Osborne offers red carpet to China - YouTube

Osborne offers red carpet to China - YouTube:

"Eighteen months after China froze ministerial contacts with the UK in retaliation for David Cameron's meeting with the Dalai Lama, UK diplomats in Beijing have been kept doubly busy with simultaneous visits this week by Chancellor George Osborne and London Mayor Boris Johnson.

"

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Should Australia Have a Shortage of Natural Gas or Cash?

Should Australia Have a Shortage of Natural Gas or Cash?:

"The Americans continue to play silly buggers over their budget. It's fantastic stuff to watch. Especially if you're a 'Deal or No Deal?' fan, unlike us. Last night's episode ended with 'No Deal!'

Stocks dropped, gold plopped and bonds face planted. One bank after another is dumping bonds that pay interest or mature over the coming months. Last night it was Citigroup.

One interesting tid-bit of news on this topic is that commentator Marc Faber reckons, if push comes to shove, rather than balancing their budget by cutting spending, the politicians will ask the Federal Reserve to buy bonds directly from the government. That's called 'monetisation' Weimar Republic style. It would break the 1913 law that created the Federal Reserve in the first place, but heck, when you make the laws, breaking laws isn't a problem.

Sick of the American shutdown story? On to something new then. Fair warning though, the rest of this Daily Reckoning is going to be mighty unpopular. Even more so than yesterday's housing bubble analysis. It's all about the hidden opportunity in this image:

"

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U.S. Seeks $10.8 Billion Weapons Sale to U.A.E., Saudis - Bloomberg

U.S. Seeks $10.8 Billion Weapons Sale to U.A.E., Saudis - Bloomberg:

"The U.S. Defense Department plans to sell Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates $10.8 billion in advanced weaponry, including air-launched cruise missiles and precision munitions.
Notice yesterday of the planned sales of advanced weapons made by Boeing Co. (BA) and Raytheon Co. (RTN) sends a message of support from the Obama administration to two close allies in the Middle East as the U.S. and five other nations are engaged in talks to curb Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program.
The Saudi regime has pressed the U.S. to maintain tough economic sanctions on Iran, both to discourage it from developing a nuclear arsenal and to limit Iran’s capacity to help its embattled ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity about diplomatic relations.
The proposal includes the first U.S. sales to Middle East allies of new Raytheon and Boeing weapons that can be launched at a distance from Saudi F-15 and U.A.E. F-16 fighters."

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Serbia hopes to start loan talks with UAE on October 26 - official - World | The Star Online

Serbia hopes to start loan talks with UAE on October 26 - official - World | The Star Online:

"Serbia's Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic plans to travel to the United Arab Emirates next week to negotiate terms of a 2-3 billion euro (1.6 - 2.5 billion pounds) loan seen as crucial to the country's financial stability.

Last week Belgrade launched measures to trim a budget deficit estimated by the International Monetary Fund at above 7 percent of output and debt forecast to reach about 65 percent of GDP next year.

To finance debt in 2014 and 2015 and invest in infrastructure and industry, the country will need additional borrowing, including a new Eurobond and loans from sovereign lenders including the UAE, China and Russia.

On Tuesday, Mladjan Dinkic, the head of a government body tasked with economic cooperation with the UAE and former finance minister, said he and Vucic would travel to Abu Dhabi on October 26 to start talks over the loan, which could be released in 2014."

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Dubai lenders to lead the way as UAE banks prepare to release Q3 results | The National

Dubai lenders to lead the way as UAE banks prepare to release Q3 results | The National:

"The big banks are set to release stellar third-quarter results after Eid, with Dubai’s lenders expected to set the pace.

Analysts at National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) are forecasting as much as Dh5.3 billion in aggregate profit for seven banks for the quarter. Lower interbank offered rates, robust credit activity and bigger customer deposits are all indicators signalling recovery and growth for the banking sector, the report said.

Two Dubai banks are expected to show the highest rate of profit growth in the quarter, according to estimates by NBAD."

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Thousands of apartments still sit vacant in Dubai after a property bubble burst in this Persian Gulf emirate only five years ago. Yet developers are moving ahead with billions of dollars in new projects.

Thousands of apartments still sit vacant in Dubai after a property bubble burst in this Persian Gulf emirate only five years ago. Yet developers are moving ahead with billions of dollars in new projects.:



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Dubai Launches New Real-Estate Boom - WSJ.com

Dubai Launches New Real-Estate Boom - WSJ.com:

"
Dubai became known for its grandiosity because of developments such as the Palm Jumeirah.
Some analysts worry a new bubble is in the making. 
Reuters
Thousands of apartments still sit vacant in Dubai, the wreckage from a massive property bubble that burst in this tiny Persian Gulf emirate only five years ago.

The unlikely response: Developers are moving ahead with billions of dollars in new projects.

A new boom has begun in the emirate, which became known for its grandiosity during the bubble by building the world's tallest skyscraper and a palm-shaped development jutting into the sea. About 45,000 units are in the supply pipeline, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Private and government-owned developers have unveiled billions of dollars in new projects in recent weeks including a new island with a 690-foot Ferris wheel and a thicket of residential towers surrounded by freshly-dredged lagoons."

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Shipyard is chosen to renovate Dubai-owned QE2 | The National

Shipyard is chosen to renovate Dubai-owned QE2 | The National:

"Plans to convert the Dubai-owned QE2 liner into a floating luxury hotel in Asia took a major step forward on Tuesday after the selection of a Chinese shipyard to refurbish the vessel.

QE2 Holdings, which owns the ship, announced the work will be done by Cosco Shipyard at its yard in Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province.

The vessel will sail there from Dubai, where it has been docked since 2008, and the work is due to be completed in 2015.

The 990 staterooms will be converted into 400 luxury suites ranging in size from 60 to 150 square metres."

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Concerns over GCC dependence on US treasury bills and dollar despite debt default optimism | The National

Concerns over GCC dependence on US treasury bills and dollar despite debt default optimism | The National:

"Questions have been raised about the GCC’s dependence on US treasury bills and the dollar, even as optimism rises about a deal to avert a debt default by the world’s biggest economy.

GCC governments are among the largest global investors in US treasuries, long considered a safe way to protect the oil wealth of future generations.

But US sovereign debt and treasury bills could no longer be considered a “risk free” asset for investors, said Nasser Saidi, the former chief economist of Dubai International Financial Centre."

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Nedbank’s contrarian play as fellow British banks scale down in UAE | The National

Nedbank’s contrarian play as fellow British banks scale down in UAE | The National:

"Britain’s once-proud banking industry appears to be in global retreat. Three of the big indigenous banks – Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds – are either in the process of reviewing their non-United Kingdom businesses, or have decided to pare their overseas operations.

In the UAE, the three banks have pulled out of retail and other banking activities, or are planning to do so. The fourth member of this peer group, HSBC, is really a global bank that happens to have a London listing, but it too is scaling back its worldwide presence.

Andrew Bates sees this as an opportunity. He is the regional head of the Middle East and Asia at private bank Nedbank, the inheritor of the once-illustrious Robert Fleming & Co merchant bank."

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Mubadala and Trafigura sign deal to take over Brazilian super port | The National

Mubadala and Trafigura sign deal to take over Brazilian super port | The National:

"Mubadala Development and Trafigura Group, the world’s second-largest metals trader, have signed a US$996 million deal to take over control of a Brazilian iron-ore port from the fallen tycoon Eike Batista.

Mubadala, the strategic investment company of the Abu Dhabi Government, and Impala, a Trafigura subsidiary, will assume 65 per cent control of MMX Porto Sudeste (PortCo), the company that owns the terminal in Itaguaí, in Rio Janeiro state.

The deal follows recent changes in the terms of an original $2 billion invested by Mubadala in Mr Batista’s Brazilian conglomerate EBX Group in March last year."

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