Tuesday 24 October 2023

Andurand: Crude Oil Needs to Hit $110 Before #SaudiArabia Eases Supply - Bloomberg

Andurand: Crude Oil Needs to Hit $110 Before Saudi Arabia Eases Supply - Bloomberg

Oil trader Pierre Andurand said he expects Saudi Arabia to keep its current supply curbs in place until prices reach at least $110 a barrel.

As inventories decline in the coming months, “the market will have to beg for more supply at some point,” the founder of Andurand Capital Management LLP said during a question-and-answer session at Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.

“The Saudis will have to decide when and at what price to bring supply back,” he added. “For me, an adjustment likely will come around $110 a barrel. So there’s room to the upside for prices.”

Since July, Saudi Arabia has pledged to implement a unilateral production cut of 1 million barrels a day on top of existing curbs. The kingdom earlier this month said it would keep the curbs in place until the end of the year.

Andurand said Saudi policy remains the deciding factor for crude prices. Global benchmark Brent oil is back below $90, even as the Israel-Hamas war threatens greater conflict in the Middle East. It’s “not impossible” that there will be direct confrontation with Iran that may change the landscape, he said.

Andurand sees oil demand reaching a high later this decade, then trailing off. On the topic of metals, he warned of trouble for copper markets, as mining supply is expected to peak while demand accelerates due to the energy transition.

Brookfield Explores Raising Funds for Middle East Deals - Bloomberg

Brookfield Explores Raising Funds for Middle East Deals - Bloomberg

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. is exploring raising separate pools of capital to invest in the Middle East, as one of this year’s most active dealmakers seeks to bolster its presence in the region, people familiar with the matter said.

The Canadian firm, which currently invests in the region through its global funds, is studying options to raise dedicated money for Gulf deals, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. It’s seeking capital for both private equity buyouts as well as real estate transactions, according to the people.

Brookfield may look at buyouts in sectors including business services, financial infrastructure and health care, while in real estate it’s keen to invest in areas like logistics firms and industrial parks in Saudi Arabia, the people said. Deliberations are in the early stages, and it wasn’t immediately clear how much Brookfield is planning to raise.

A representative for Brookfield declined to comment.

#Saudi Arabian Milling Firm MC4 Plans IPO - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabian Milling Firm MC4 Plans IPO - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s Milling Company 4 is planning a domestic initial public offering that could raise more than $200 million, according to people familiar with the matter.

The firm is working with Himmah Capital on the potential listing which could come as early as next year, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.

Details of the offering such as size and timeline are still preliminary and subject to change, the people added. Representatives for Himmah Capital and MC4 declined to comment.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia split the government-controlled flour milling industry into four companies and sold them to the private sector. MC4 was sold to a group including Allana International, Abdullah Al Othaim Markets, and United Feed Manufacturing Co. for 859 million riyals ($229 million) in 2021.

First Milling Co. was the first of the flour milling companies to go public in an IPO that raised $266 million in May. Its shares have risen about 9% since then.

A deepening crisis in the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas war intensifies has put investors on edge and risks clouding a recent resurgence of IPOs in the kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index has fallen about 7% since late September, almost erasing the year’s gains. Oil hit $90 a barrel amid growing fears that the conflict could spread across the Middle East.

#Russia strikes deal with #Dubai's DP World to develop Arctic sea route | Reuters

Russia strikes deal with Dubai's DP World to develop Arctic sea route | Reuters

Russian nuclear agency Rosatom said on Tuesday it has set up a joint venture with Dubai's DP World to develop container shipping through the Arctic as part of an initiative heavily promoted by President Vladimir Putin.

The deal with one of the world's top port operators is the most tangible sign yet of Moscow's ability to attract big international partners to help it realise its ambitious plans for what it calls the Northern Sea Route.

Putin has talked up prospects for the Arctic corridor, including in a speech at China's Belt and Road forum last week, as Russia shifts its trade eastwards in response to Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

The route, made viable by the melting of Arctic sea ice due to climate change, runs from Murmansk near Russia's border with Norway to the Bering Strait near Alaska.

"As for the Northern Sea Route, Russia is not just inviting its partners to actively use its transit potential. I will say more: we invite interested states to directly participate in its development," Putin said in Beijing last week.

Gulf bourses mixed ahead of US economic data amid Mideast woes | Reuters

Gulf bourses mixed ahead of US economic data amid Mideast woes | Reuters



Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Tuesday ahead of U.S. economic data expected to offer clues to the next steps by the Federal Reserve, while widening conflict in the region weighed on sentiments.

The U.S. Commerce Department will announce third-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the U.S. central bank's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday.

Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council is usually guided by Fed policy decisions because most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) gained 0.8%, snapping four sessions of losses, led by a 2.7% rise in Lumi Rental Co (4262.SE) and a 4.4% jump in Alinma Bank (1150.SE).

Post trading hours, the lender reported a quarterly net profit of 1.32 billion riyals ($351.89 million), up from 989 million riyals year ago.

Separately, the kingdom's Tourism Minister Ahmed Al Khateeb said on Tuesday the kingdom could record almost 100 million tourist visits this year, with tourism contributing around 6% of gross domestic product.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI) added 0.3%, helped by a 1.8% rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU).

Oil - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - recovered some of the previous day's losses as markets worried that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider conflict in the crude-exporting region.

The Qatari benchmark (.QSI) declined 2.3%, hitting its lowest in over three years, as almost all its constituents were in negative territory including Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), which was down 3.9%.

Among other losers, petrochemical firm Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co (MPHC.QA) tumbled 5.8%, following a steep fall in nine-month net profit.

Israel said on Tuesday it had killed dozens of Hamas fighters overnight in strikes on Gaza but that its war to destroy them, which involves bombarding and blockading the Palestinian enclave, would take time.

Gaza's health ministry said at least 5,791 Palestinians have been killed in the strikes on the Hamas-ruled enclave since Oct. 7, including 2,360 children. A total of 704 were killed in the previous 24 hours alone, it said.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) dropped 0.8%, with tobacco monopoly Eastern Co (EAST.CA) retreating 11%.

Goldman, Citigroup Said to Drop Off Investcorp Capital’s IPO - Bloomberg

Goldman, Citigroup Said to Drop Off Investcorp Capital’s IPO - Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. have dropped off the planned Abu Dhabi initial public offering of an investment vehicle backed by Investcorp, the Middle East’s biggest alternative asset manager, according to people familiar with the matter.

The two US banks couldn’t get internal approval for the IPO’s price stabilization mechanism, which has never been attempted before in a United Arab Emirates listing, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.

The Abu Dhabi bourse had requested that the IPO have a price stabilization mechanism once the stock start trading, but none of the lead banks on the deal wanted to take on the role as it’s a gray area under UAE law, the people said. Q Market Makers LLC, which is backed by Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ, was eventually brought on to be the stabilization agent, the people said.

Investcorp announced the planned IPO of Investcorp Capital Plc on Tuesday. Investcorp Capital operates in the alternative investments space, providing investors with access to a global portfolio of private market opportunities, with investments in private equity, real estate, credit and general partner positions in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

Investcorp Capital and Investcorp will appoint the stabilization manager who will support the price of the shares once they start trading for the stabilization period. The statement didn’t name the stabilization manager or how long the period lasts.

OQ Gas Networks Soars 14% in Muscat #Oman After $749 Million IPO - Bloomberg

OQ Gas Networks Soars 14% in Muscat After $749 Million IPO - Bloomberg

OQ Gas Networks SAOG jumped as much as 14% on its Muscat trading debut after raising 288.2 million riyals ($749 million) in its initial public offering, Oman’s largest on record.

Shares in the gas pipelines business of Omani state energy firm OQ SAOC opened at 159 baisas on Tuesday, up from the offer price of 140 baisas. OQ sold about 2.1 billion shares, or a 49% stake, in OQGN and the listing drew about $10.4 billion in demand. That showed investor appetite for share sales in the Gulf remains strong, even after war flared up between Israel and Hamas earlier this month.

The debut comes as investors remain on edge about the risk of the war between Israel and Hamas spreading across the region, with implications for oil supplies. Brent has advanced about 7% since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas on concerns the conflict will drag in other nations including Lebanon, Iran and potentially the US.

But while IPOs elsewhere are succumbing to the heightened market volatility because of the war as well as higher interest rates, the Persian Gulf has so far held up as a bright spot. Oil driller ADES Holding Co. jumped 30% on its Riyadh debut on Oct. 11, just days after the attack.

OQGN is the second IPO in Oman’s privatization program aimed at boosting state coffers and expanding its stock exchange. Similar listing drives in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have raised billions of dollars over the last couple of years, defying a global IPO slump.

OQGN’s IPO edged past Oman Telecommunications Co. SAOG’s $748 million float in 2005 as Muscat’s largest.

OQ raised $244 million in the IPO of oil drilling firm Abraj Energy Services in March, the first in its privatization drive. Its shares have risen about 18% from the listing price.

OQGN’s IPO drew in Fluxys Belgium SA, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and the Qatar Investment Authority as anchor investors who committed to buying a combined 30% of the deal.

Bank Muscat SAOG, Bank of America Corp., and EFG Hermes were joint global coordinators on the deal.

Masdar to buy 49% stake in Iberdrola's East Anglia 3 wind farm - report | Reuters

Masdar to buy 49% stake in Iberdrola's East Anglia 3 wind farm - report | Reuters

Abu Dhabi's Masdar is set to buy a 49% stake in Spanish utility Iberdrola's (IBE.MC) largest offshore wind project off Britain's eastern coast, known as East Anglia 3, Spanish newspaper Cinco Dias reported on Tuesday, citing unidentified market sources.

The acquisition will be worth around 2 billion euros ($2.14 billion), the report added, as the entire project is expected to be valued at some 4 billion euros.

Iberdrola declined to comment on the report. Masdar said it was unable to comment on "market speculation" as a matter of policy.

Masdar, a renewable energy company partially owned by the United Arab Emirates' sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, had already signed an exclusive deal with Iberdrola to develop the Baltic Eagle, a 476 megawatt (MW) offshore wind farm in German waters in the Baltic Sea.

The East Anglia 3 farm began construction last year and is scheduled to begin operations in 2026, according to Iberdrola. It is set to have a capacity of 1,400 MW, supplying around 1.3 million homes.

The asset is part of Iberdrola's planned macro offshore wind complex in the British North Sea, dubbed the East Anglia Hub, which includes East Anglia 3 and its two previous versions.

It is expected to generate 2,900 MW, requiring a total investment of 6.5 billion euros.

In 2019, Iberdrola sold a 40% stake worth more than 1 billion pounds ($1.20 billion) in East Anglia One to Macquarie's Green Investment Group subsidiary.

Most Gulf markets gain ahead of US economic data | Reuters

Most Gulf markets gain ahead of US economic data | Reuters

Most major stock markets in the Gulf rose in early trade on Tuesday ahead of economic data expected to offer clues to the next steps by the U.S. Federal Reserve, although widening conflict in the region weighed on sentiments.

The U.S. Commerce Department will announce third-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the U.S. central bank's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday.

Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council is usually guided by Fed policy decisions because most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) rose 0.5%, on course to snap four sessions of losses, with Elm Company (7203.SE) advancing 2.4% and Etihad Atheeb Telecommunication (7040.SE) gaining 1.4%.

Saudi National Bank (1180.SE) added 1%, after reporting a 6% rise in third-quarter net profit from a year earlier.

However, Riyal Investment & Development Co (9584.SE) plunged as much as 28% in its debut on parallel market.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI) gained 0.8%, with Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corp (EMPOWER.DU) climbing 5.5%.

The Abu Dhabi index (.FTFADGI) was up 0.2%.

Prices of oil, which fuel the Gulf economy, recovered some of the previous day's losses as markets worried that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider conflict in the oil-exporting region.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI) retreated 1.2%, as almost all its constituents were in the negative territory including Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), which slid 2.1%.

Elsewhere, petrochemical firm Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co (MPHC.QA) tumbled 4.6%, hitting its lowest in over three years, following a steep fall in nine-month net profit.

Israel pounded hundreds of targets in Gaza from the air on Monday as its soldiers fought Hamas militants during raids into the besieged Palestinian strip, where deaths are soaring and civilians are trapped in harrowing conditions.

Oman's OQ Gas Networks (OQGN.OM), the pipeline business of state oil giant OQ, jumped 14% in its debut.