Thursday 24 January 2019

#Dubai index records a last gasp recovery to end volatile week

Dubai index records a last gasp recovery to end volatile week:

Emaar Properties weighed on investor sentiments for the most part of Thursday on the Dubai index, until the final hour of trade, when the gauge saw a sharp recovery. The Dubai Financial Market general index closed 0.10 per cent lower at 2,514.36, recovering from a low of 2,501.20.

The developer closed 0.48 per cent lower at Dh4.11, after hitting a low of Dh3.85. Its other unit, Emaar Development, closed 1.32 per cent lower at Dh3.75, while Emaar Malls was steady at Dh1.57. “Investors have not shied away from displaying their concerns as selling resumes on Emaar Malls, Emaar’s retail arm, which despite superior results and multiple calls to “buy” maintains a downtrend,” Issam Kassabieh, Senior Financial Analyst at Menacorp said.

Emaar Properties has been one of the worst performing stocks with shares losing nearly 40 per cent of its value. Among other stocks, Dubai Islamic Bank closed 0.39 per cent higher at Dh5.14, while DP World closed more than 2 per cent lower at $16.09. Aramex was nearly 1 per cent lower at Dh4.05. Banks again came to the rescue on the Abu Dhabi index, which closed 0.97 per cent higher at 5,019.16.

Private sector must ‘step up’ for Saudi Vision 2030 goals, says Crescent’s Badr Jafar

Private sector must ‘step up’ for Saudi Vision 2030 goals, says Crescent’s Badr Jafar:

One of the Arabian Gulf’s leading businessmen believes the private sector in Saudi Arabia must play a greater role in the Vision 2030 strategy to diversify the nation’s economy and reduce its dependency on oil revenue.

“The private sector in Saudi Arabia has to step up and take authentic ownership of the Saudi Vision 2030,” said Badr Jafar, president of Crescent Petroleum, the Sharjah-based international conglomerate with interests in shipping, ports, energy and several other industrial sectors.

Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos, he added: “When people think of a country in the Middle East region, they tend to think of just its government but I like to think of the whole ecosystem, both public and private sector. I believe the private sector has to play a bigger part in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”

QSE index closes at 10,712.39 points - The Peninsula Qatar

QSE index closes at 10,712.39 points - The Peninsula Qatar:

Qatar Stock Exchange’s (QSE) benchmark index lost 75.36 points, or 0.70 percent, last week when the bourse closed yesterday at 10,712.39 points.

Trading value during last week decreased by 20.58 percent to reach QR1.15bn compared to QR1.45bn.

Trading volume decreased by 20.64 percent to reach 39.06 million shares, as against 49.22 million shares, while the number of transactions fell by 24.07 percent, to reach 25,624 transactions as compared to 33,745 transactions.

EU Says Preparations for #Iran SPV Are at `Advanced Stage' - Bloomberg

EU Says Preparations for Iran SPV Are at `Advanced Stage' - Bloomberg:

The European Commission said it’s seeking to launch “very soon” a special purpose vehicle to help European companies bypass U.S. sanctions on Iran, with three European diplomats saying the official unveiling could come as early as Monday. 


Progress has been slow in developing the SPV, a key element of the European Union’s effort to keep Iran from quitting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 accord to constrain the nation’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. The U.S. pulled out of the deal in May and has since reimposed sanctions. 



The EU, led by France, Germany and the U.K., has struggled to find a government willing to host the vehicle, which risks drawing criticism from the American administration. Still, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini had said in December that the SPV would be established by the start of 2019.

Wall Street Embraces #Saudi Bid for Rehabilitation at Davos - Bloomberg

Wall Street Embraces Saudi Bid for Rehabilitation at Davos - Bloomberg:

As Davos delegates walk to their meetings, they’re overlooked by the largest billboard in town. The message mixes confidence and defiance -- "Invest Saudi: The Future-Forward Economy."

Only three months ago, the global elite largely shunned Saudi Arabia’s own version of Davos after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Now, Riyadh is using the real thing to attempt a reconciliation with the business world, making nice in the Swiss mountain resort’s universal language: money. Plans for economic reform, big capital market deals and global investments mean A-list bankers and executives are inclined to listen.

At an event where success is often measured by who’s seen at a reception or speaks on a panel, the Saudis aren’t getting the cold shoulder any more. James Gorman, the head of Morgan Stanley, spoke on Thursday in a debate alongside two Saudi ministers. And the likes of Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and John Flint of HSBC Holdings Plc attended the annual Davos party thrown by Saudi oil giant Aramco, according to a person present.

Kuwait Finance Said to Offer 35% Premium in $8 Billion Deal - Bloomberg

Kuwait Finance Said to Offer 35% Premium in $8 Billion Deal - Bloomberg:

Kuwait Finance House is considering offering a premium of about 35 percent to buy Bahrain’s Ahli United Bank BSC in a share swap deal that could create the Gulf’s sixth-biggest lender with $92 billion of assets, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Kuwaiti lender may offer one share for every 2.1 in Ahli United Bank, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. That would value the deal at about $8 billion, according Bloomberg calculations.

The premium is based on the companies’ closing share prices on Wednesday. Ahli United Bank has advanced about 11 percent since the banks started talks in July, while Kuwait Finance House has gained around 0.5 percent. The Bahraini bank may not accept the offer and the final terms of the deal could change, the people said.

Oil edges higher on Venezuela turmoil, but weighed by U.S. crude stock build | Reuters

Oil edges higher on Venezuela turmoil, but weighed by U.S. crude stock build | Reuters:

Oil prices rose on Thursday, boosted by the U.S. threat of sanctions on OPEC member Venezuela, but gains were limited by U.S. data showing record high gasoline inventories and an unexpected big build in crude.

Brent crude futures rose 14 cents to $61.28 a barrel by 12:12 p.m. EST (1712 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 62 cents to $53.24 a barrel.

Washington signaled it could impose sanctions on Venezuela’s crude exports as Caracas descends further into political and economic turmoil. The threat to reduce supplies supported futures prices.

#Qatar banks weigh U.S. dollar bond issuance from Q1 onwards -sources | Reuters

Qatar banks weigh U.S. dollar bond issuance from Q1 onwards -sources | Reuters:

Qatar banks are expected to issue U.S. dollar bonds from this quarter onwards, hoping to take advantage of any easing in global volatility casued by geopolitical tensions, three sources familiar with the matter said.

Qatar National Bank, the largest bank by assets in the Middle East and Africa, and Qatar Islamic Bank have all held talks with banks about potential issues during the first quarter, the sources said.

In an emailed statement Commercial Bank said: “We have a U.S. dollar bond maturing in Q2 2019 (June 2019) and plan to do a replacement issuance around the maturity date of this bond.”

Bakr bin Laden temporarily released from #Saudi detention: sources | Reuters

Bakr bin Laden temporarily released from Saudi detention: sources | Reuters:

Bakr bin Laden, former chairman of construction giant Saudi Binladin Group, has been temporarily released nearly 15 months after his arrest in Saudi Arabia’s anti-corruption campaign, three sources with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.

The sources said he was taken from Riyadh’s Ha’ir prison on Wednesday and then flown to the western city of Jeddah to attend a close relative’s funeral. He is expected to return to detention but the sources said they did not know when.

“He is out, but we’re not sure if it’s for good or not,” said one of the sources, who all requested anonymity.

Oil prices in 2019? It's all about the economy: Kemp | Reuters

Oil prices in 2019? It's all about the economy: Kemp | Reuters:

Oil prices this year will be influenced primarily by the health of the global economy, which is why prices have closely tracked equity and bond markets in recent months.

U.S. shale production growth, the policy of OPEC and its allies, U.S. sanctions on Iran, and the threat of sanctions on Venezuela may all have an impact on the price of a barrel.

But that impact will be secondary and it is more likely to be crude prices that determine what happens with U.S. shale, OPEC+ policy and U.S. sanctions (tmsnrt.rs/2TbHKnA).

'Under siege', oil industry mulls raising returns and PR game | Reuters

'Under siege', oil industry mulls raising returns and PR game | Reuters:

When the global oil industry held its biggest annual gathering this week in the Swiss town of Davos, it invited banking bosses and fund managers to discuss two key topics - climate change and pressure from investors.

The conclusion of the discussions was worrying for those present - pressure is rising and the industry is losing a battle not to be seen as one of the world’s biggest evils.

The answer? Lure investors with higher returns and raise the PR game.

MIDEAST STOCKS-ADCB merger update lifts #AbuDhabi, most Gulf markets up | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-ADCB merger update lifts Abu Dhabi, most Gulf markets up | Reuters:

Abu Dhabi's stock market rose sharply on Thursday, lifted by financials and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank's update on a three-way bank merger, while Saudi Arabia edged down as its petrochemical firms slid.

The Abu Dhabi index was up one percent, partially lifted by a 5.3 percent hike in Abu Dhabi Commercial bank (ADCB), which enjoyed a four-year high, and a 2.4 percent gain by Union National Bank.

ADCB said its board will meet next week to discuss the potential merger between the firm, Union National Bank and Al Hilal Bank.

The Big Oil Agencies’ Verdict on OPEC+ Pact: Glut Averted - Bloomberg

The Big Oil Agencies’ Verdict on OPEC+ Pact: Glut Averted - Bloomberg:

Oil producing states in OPEC and beyond are going to prevent a buildup of global crude inventories in the first half of this year—assuming they can resist the temptation to cheat on a December pact to restrict supplies.

That’s the main takeaway from supply-and-demand studies of the oil industry’s most-watched organizations: the International Energy Agency,  the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This story will monitor and compare the evolution of the three agencies’ key market interpretations on an on-going basis. 


The main agencies' implied supply-demand estimates for the first half of 2019 are set out in the chart below. Output curtailments in December — before OPEC and allied producers embarked on a fresh plan to curb production starting this month—already slashed the implied surplus in the first half of this year to about 750,000 barrels a day (the green columns).

Kuwait Finance Said to Offer 35% Premium in $8 Billion Deal - Bloomberg

Kuwait Finance Said to Offer 35% Premium in $8 Billion Deal - Bloomberg:

Kuwait Finance House is considering offering a premium of about 35 percent to buy Bahrain’s Ahli United Bank BSC in a share swap deal that could create the Gulf’s sixth-biggest lender with $92 billion of assets, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Kuwaiti lender may offer one share for every 2.1 in Ahli United Bank, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. That would value the deal at about $8 billion, according Bloomberg calculations.

The premium is based on the companies’ closing share prices on Wednesday. Ahli United Bank has advanced about 11 percent since the banks started talks in July, while Kuwait Finance House has gained around 0.5 percent. The Bahraini bank may not accept the offer and the final terms of the deal could change, the people said.

These #Dubai Stocks Are Seen Slumping Deeper Amid MSCI Review - Bloomberg

These Dubai Stocks Are Seen Slumping Deeper Amid MSCI Review - Bloomberg:

Three of Dubai’s biggest real-estate and development companies are at risk of being removed from one of the world’s most popular emerging-market benchmarks this year as a slowing economy drags down the emirate’s property values.

Damac Properties PJSC’s stock has plunged by about two-thirds in the past 12 months, while Emaar Malls PJSC and Emaar Development PJSC are both down 34 percent. That performance sets them up for exclusion from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in May under the compiler’s criteria for membership in the gauge, according to Mohamad Al Hajj, equities strategist at the research arm of EFG-Hermes Holding Co. Their departure could lead to combined investment outflows of about $220 million, he said.

The three companies are by far the worst performers in 2019 among the eight stocks on Dubai’s real estate and construction index, a gauge that’s dropped in the past year as building in the emirate outpaced expected demand growth. The housing component of Dubai’s consumer-price index has fallen for all but three months since at least May 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Sight of #Saudi Bailout Bazooka Enough for Record Bond Rally - Bloomberg

Sight of Saudi Bailout Bazooka Enough for Record Bond Rally - Bloomberg:

When Saudi Arabia vows to go “all the way” for a country in need, the rest is just noise for investors.

A day after Lebanon’s bonds sank following a credit rating downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service, a show of support by Saudi Arabia was enough to undo the damage. With the kingdom’s regional rival Qatar also agreeing to throw a $500 million lifeline to Lebanon earlier this week, its dollar bonds due 2028 jumped the most ever on Wednesday, despite the Saudi finance minister skimping on details in a pledge made on CNBC.

Even if Saudi Arabia is all talk for now, investors know the kingdom can easily back it up with action. Bahrain’s battered bonds recovered to become the best performer in the Persian Gulf last year after Saudi Arabia and other wealthy allies came to the rescue in October with a $10 billion package.

World’s Worst Economy Is a Threat to Mideast Rulers Rich or Poor - Bloomberg

World’s Worst Economy Is a Threat to Mideast Rulers Rich or Poor - Bloomberg:

Saudi ministers had just finished presenting an upbeat view of the kingdom’s economic prospects for 2019 at a December conference in Riyadh when a businessman sitting in the audience burst their bubble. After congratulating the officials on their growth predictions, Abdulaziz Al-Ajlan, a textile manufacturer, politely pointed out how little their outlook resembles reality. “Many small and medium-sized companies are shutting down,” he said.

“We see companies firing Saudis.”

Four years of low crude oil prices have taken a toll on the Arab world’s biggest economy and other oil exporters, exacerbating a malaise that’s gripped the region since 2011. That year the Arab Spring protests swept across the Middle East, toppling regimes and wrecking economies. The oil-rich nations of the Persian Gulf mostly escaped the worst of it, but they weren’t going to take any chances and spent heavily to ward off unrest. Now, after four years of lower crude oil prices, they’re in financial trouble, too. The International Monetary Fund ranks the Middle East and North Africa as the worst-performing corner of the world economy since 2011, along with Latin America. Over the next few years, the IMF forecasts, the region will hold that title on its own.

MENA merger values climb 50% in 2018: report | ZAWYA MENA Edition

MENA merger values climb 50% in 2018: report | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The value of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) announced in the Middle East and North Africa in 2018 increased by 50 percent to $54.9 billion from $36.6billion in 2017, according to a new Deals Intelligence report by Refinitiv.

The 2018 Middle East and North Africa Investment Banking Analysis report states that deals involving a MENA-based company as a target were up 63 percent year-on-year to $31.4 billion - the highest level in 11 years. The was driven both by inter-regional deals, which were up 79 percent year-on-year at $16.7 billion, and by inbound M&A - up 48 percent to $14.7 billion. Outbound M&A also increased by 37 percent to $16.5 billion.

Two of the three biggest deals to be announced in 2018 involved bank mergers. The largest was Saudi British Bank's $5 billion merger with Alawwal Bank, and the third-largest was Dubai-based Emirates NBD's $3.2 billion acquisition of Turkey's Denizbank. Splitting these was Abu Dhabi state investment firm Mubadala's $3.7 billion sale of its stake in DH Publishing - the parent company of the EMI Music Publishing - to Japan's Sony Corporation.

Saudis to Davos: move on from Khashoggi, let's do business | Reuters

Saudis to Davos: move on from Khashoggi, let's do business | Reuters:

If you somehow missed the news about the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents and the global outcry that ensued, you might think Saudi Arabia is the darling of the World Economic Forum in Davos. 

The kingdom has sent one of its strongest delegations ever to the Swiss mountain resort and packed its top executives’ agendas with meetings with international peers.

It has even managed to secure top Western businessmen for a panel debate on ‘Next Steps for Saudi Arabia’, where French oil major Total’s chief executive Patrick Pouyanne and Morgan Stanley’s boss James Gorman will be sitting next to the Saudi finance and economy ministers.

Aramco seeks advisers for SABIC debt financing: sources | Reuters

Aramco seeks advisers for SABIC debt financing: sources | Reuters:

Saudi Aramco is seeking advisers to arrange debt financing needed for the acquisition of a stake in Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) 2010.SE, banking sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

The Saudi oil giant could borrow as much as $50 billion from international investors to fund the acquisition, sources previously told Reuters.

A request for proposals was sent out on Wednesday and banks are expected to submit proposals for the financing by Monday, one of the sources said.

Mideast Stocks: Petchems hurt #Saudi, #Dubai weighed down by property stocks | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Petchems hurt Saudi, Dubai weighed down by property stocks | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The Saudi stock market dropped on Thursday as weak oil prices pressured its petrochemical firms, while weakness in property stocks such as DAMAC Properties weighed on Dubai stocks.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.88 a barrel, down 0.4 percent from their last settlement.

Saudi Arabia's index fell 0.4 percent, with industry heavyweight Saudi Basic Industries Corp sliding 0.7 percent.