Monday, 15 October 2018

Saudi breaks 45-year taboo with the veiled oil weapon threat

Saudi breaks 45-year taboo with the veiled oil weapon threat:

For 45 years, it’s been considered out of bounds for Saudi Arabia. But all of a sudden, Riyadh made what many read as a veiled threat to use the kingdom’s oil wealth as a political weapon – something unheard of since the 1973 embargo.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, said on Sunday it would retaliate against any punitive measures linked to the disappearance of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi with even “stronger ones.” In an implicit reference to the kingdom’s petroleum wealth, the statement noted the Saudi economy “has an influential and vital role in the global economy.”

Roger Diwan, a longstanding Opec watcher at consultant IHS Markit Ltd, said the Saudi comments broke “an essential oil market taboo.”

Saudi Arabia Points the Oil Weapon at Itself - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Points the Oil Weapon at Itself - Bloomberg:

“Nice global economy you’ve got there; shame if something should happen to it” is not a great pitch for oil and definitely not for the IPO of Saudi Aramco.

The best that can be said about Saudi Arabia’s gossamer-veiled threat of retaliation for any punishment over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is that it’s probably mere posturing. On Sunday, the foreign ministry put out a statement emphasizing the country “has an influential and vital role in the global economy.” (They’re talking about oil.) But by Monday, the country’s oil minister was making soothing noises about keeping the market stable, and the king had ordered an investigation into Khashoggi’s fate. Because actually using, or even seriously threatening to use, the oil weapon would be a self-own of colossal proportions. 

Politically, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, seen as the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, is locked in an embrace with President Donald Trump. If Trump’s tweets are anything to go by, he is antsy about rising gasoline prices ahead of midterm elections, now only about three weeks away. His transactional approach to foreign relations means he likely feels he is owed something for pulling the U.S. out of its nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia’s arch rival, Iran. Indeed, speaking of the oil-for-security bargain underpinning Washington-Riyadh relations for decades, the president has said the country wouldn’t last two weekswithout U.S. support. And while Saudi Arabia has a warmer relationship with Moscow these days than it once did, outright confrontation with the U.S. is unthinkable.

Saudi Crisis Shows the U.S. Needs a New Way to Deal With Dictators - Bloomberg

Saudi Crisis Shows the U.S. Needs a New Way to Deal With Dictators - Bloomberg:

The disappearance of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi has precipitated a new crisis in U.S.-Saudi relations. Yet that crisis has also revived a much older dilemma in American strategy: How to deal with allies that also happen to morally abhorrent, even murderous, dictatorships.

The basic predicament has been around for over a century. As the U.S. established its dominance in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, it often cooperated with local strongmen who could provide some semblance of stability. Throughout the Cold War, containing communism required working with partners that were far from morally pure — dictators who ruled key allies such as South Korea, Turkey, Portugal and Greece at various points, as well as a clutch of Latin American and Middle Eastern despots. 





The rapid spread of democracy from the 1970s through the early 2000s eased this dilemma, by aligning the frontiers of freedom more closely with the frontiers of America’s European and Asia-Pacific alliances. Yet the problem has now returned, and not just in the Middle East, because of two factors.

Ari Emanuel’s Endeavor Is Said to Seek to Terminate Saudi Deal - Bloomberg

Ari Emanuel’s Endeavor Is Said to Seek to Terminate Saudi Deal - Bloomberg:

Endeavor LLC, the Hollywood talent agency run by Ari Emanuel, is attempting to terminate a deal to sell a $400 million stake in the company to Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, a person familiar with the situation said.

It isn’t clear when or if the deal will be ended, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. The agreement, struck in March with the sovereign wealth fund, was part of Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s plan to diversify the kingdom’s oil-based economy.

Endeavor would be the latest U.S. company to back away from Saudi Arabia after the disappearance of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The journalist stepped inside the Saudi consulate on Oct. 2 and is now believed dead. Saudi Arabia is preparing a report that his death was the result of an interrogation that went wrong, CNN reported on Monday

Masraf Al Rayan's Q3 net profit rises 4.4 pct | Reuters

Masraf Al Rayan's Q3 net profit rises 4.4 pct | Reuters: Qatari lender Masraf Al Rayan reported a 4.4 percent increase in third-quarter net profit on Monday, according to Reuters calculations.

Net profit for the three months to Sept. 30 was 566.1 million riyals ($155.5 million) compared with 542.0 million riyals in the same period a year ago, Reuters calculations showed, using financial statements in lieu of a quarterly earnings breakdown.

EFG Hermes had forecast a quarterly net profit of 529.0 million riyals for the quarter, while QNB Financial Services forecast a net profit of 536.2 million riyals. ($1 = 3.6400 Qatar riyals)

Oil steadies as Saudi tensions balance demand outlook | Reuters

Oil steadies as Saudi tensions balance demand outlook | Reuters:

Oil prices steadied on Monday, supported by geopolitical tension over the disappearance of a Saudi journalist, which has stoked worries about supplies from the world’s top crude exporter, but weighed by a falling equities market and concern over long-term demand outlook.

Brent crude futures rose 33 cents to $80.76 a barrel by 11:26 a.m. EDT (1526 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 27 cents to $71.61 a barrel.

Last week, both contracts fell by more than 4 percent as U.S. stock markets tumbled.

Cepsa float fail could jeopardise other energy listings | Reuters

Cepsa float fail could jeopardise other energy listings | Reuters:

The shelving of Spanish energy company Cepsa’s initial public offering (IPO) may damage prospects for a string of oil-related companies planning to go public.

Returning Cepsa to the Madrid stock exchange this week in a flotation valuing the firm at up to 8 billion euros ($9.3 billion) had been expected to test investor appetite for energy listings amid resurgent oil prices.

But the company, owned by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, postponed the IPO on Monday after a tough book-building process.

Occidental to no longer pursue #Qatar offshore field extension | Reuters

Occidental to no longer pursue Qatar offshore field extension | Reuters:

Occidental Petroleum Corp said on Monday it would no longer pursue extension of the Idd El-Sharghi North Dome (ISND) offshore oilfield in Qatar, sending its shares down more than 5 percent.

The company had partnered with Qatar Petroleum for more than 20 years to develop the field and the contract expires in October 2019.

Occidental plans to redeploy the capital and workers in the offshore field to other projects.

UAE c.bank says new public debt law will make market more resilient, benchmark yield curve | Reuters

UAE c.bank says new public debt law will make market more resilient, benchmark yield curve | Reuters:

The United Arab Emirates central bank said on Monday that a new public debt law which was approved last week will create a more resilient financial market, benchmark the yield curve and provide more diversified sources of financing.

The bank’s watchdog also said the “law will mobilise additional domestic savings and attract capital inflows”, according to an emailed statement.

The UAE issued a law permitting the federal government to begin issuing sovereign debt, the finance ministry said on Saturday.

Breakingviews - Wall Street shows Trump the way on Saudi Arabia | Reuters

Breakingviews - Wall Street shows Trump the way on Saudi Arabia | Reuters:

The Wall Street tail is wagging the Washington dog. In the past, Saudi Arabia’s alleged involvement in the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi would have met with robust condemnation from the United States government. American banks and companies would then reluctantly pass up the chance to compete for lucrative business. But in the last few days a stream of luminaries headed by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon have turned that dynamic on its head.

The decision by BlackRock chief Larry Fink and his Blackstonecounterpart Steve Schwarzman to join their peers in skipping next week’s “Davos in the Desert” will not have been taken lightly. Western financiers and business leaders have lauded Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “Vision 2030” modernisation programme. JPMorgan has made $81 million in fees from Saudi Arabia over the last six years, Refinitiv data shows. Besides, the royal family has a long memory. Citi had to wait almost a decade after leaving the kingdom in 2004 to be granted a new banking licence.

KKR executives pull out of Saudi conference: sources | Reuters

KKR executives pull out of Saudi conference: sources | Reuters:

Joseph Bae, co-president and co-chief operating officer of private equity firm KKR & Co LP (KKR.N), and David Petraeus, chairman of the KKR Global Institute, have withdrawn from the Future Investment Initiative conference to be held in Saudi Arabia next week, two people familiar with the matter said on Monday. The Global Institute is a research organization owned by KKR that supports its investment committees and portfolio companies.

The two men are just the latest senior U.S. corporate executives to decide to not attend the high-profile conference amid concerns about missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of the kingdom and a U.S. resident.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi rebounds from Khashoggi slide as institutions buy | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi rebounds from Khashoggi slide as institutions buy | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s stock market rebounded sharply on Monday from losses suffered in the wake of the disappearance of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, as local institutions bought shares actively.

The Saudi index - which had plunged 7.2 percent in the previous two days on fears that Khashoggi’s case could trigger U.S. sanctions against Riyadh and shrink inflows of foreign investment - jumped 4.1 percent in heavy trade, erasing Sunday’s losses.

A Saudi treasury banker said he believed the rebound was aided by government-linked funds intervening to support the market, as they did late last year when a corruption inquiry unsettled investors.

Oil group Cepsa jettisons IPO plans | Financial Times

Oil group Cepsa jettisons IPO plans | Financial Times:

Cepsa, the Spanish oil and gas company, has become the latest group to pull its initial public offering because of choppy conditions in global equity markets.

The group, which is owned by the Abu Dhabi state investor Mubadala, had been due to list on the Spanish stock exchange in what would have been the biggest listing of an oil group since Rosneft floated in 2006.

Cepsa’s listing was expected to capitalise on a steep recovery in oil prices, which have returned above $80 a barrel from below $30 in early 2016, sparking a fresh round of dealmaking in the industry.

SoftBank Dive Hits $22 Billion Amid Saudi Outcry, Tech Rout - Bloomberg

SoftBank Dive Hits $22 Billion Amid Saudi Outcry, Tech Rout - Bloomberg:

SoftBank Group Corp. has been battered over the past two weeks as technology stocks plummet globally and the outcry over a missing Saudi Arabian journalist escalates into a global controversy.

SoftBank shares fell 7.3 percent to 9,251 yen at the close in Tokyo Monday, pushing the decline in market value to $22 billion since its peak this year. The stock had gained 29 percent this year through Sept. 28 as investors began to credit founder Masayoshi Son for his ambitious investments in technology startups, including Uber Technologies Inc., Didi Chuxing and WeWork Cos.

But Son has been dealt successive setbacks in the past two weeks. Tech shares have retreated in the face of the U.S.-China trade war, potentially jeopardizing the value of SoftBank’s portfolio companies. Then journalist Jamal Khashoggi disappeared after visiting the Saudi consulate in Turkey, leading Turkish authorities to accuse Saudi Arabia of killing the writer who had criticized his kingdom’s government.

Saudi Bonds Sink as Row With U.S. Over Missing Writer Escalates - Bloomberg

Saudi Bonds Sink as Row With U.S. Over Missing Writer Escalates - Bloomberg:

The growing diplomatic row over the disappearance of Saudi columnist Jamal Khashoggi reverberated through the country’s bond market.

The yield on the kingdom’s $5 billion debt due 2028 jumped to a record and 12-month riyal forwards headed for the biggest increase in more than three years in the offshore market. The Tadawul All Share Index added as much as 2.9 percent, rebounding from yesterday’s retreat amid speculation government-related funds are boosting the securities.

The U.S. administration is losing patience with the kingdom’s silence over Khashoggi’s whereabouts, and is weighing action against its Middle Eastern ally. Saudi Arabia has denied accusations that it murdered the writer. The escalation in tension between the Gulf state and the U.S. has raised concerns about whether the kingdom can attract the foreign investors needed to overhaul its economy. The nation has been reforming its financial markets and has won inclusion in FTSE Russell and MSCI Inc. indexes for emerging markets.

UAE-based Etisalat lifts restrictions on foreigners' voting rights | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE-based Etisalat lifts restrictions on foreigners' voting rights | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Etisalat has lifted restrictions imposed on voting rights of the company's foreign shareholders, in a bid to augment FDIs inflows into the company over the coming period.

In 2015, the Cabinet issued a resolution amending the Federal Law No 1 of 1991, thereby allowing foreigners to own up to 20 percent of Etisalat's shares. However, the resolution did not give the company's foreign shareholders any voting rights.

The company's board authorised the management to take necessary steps to incorporate articles of association and obtain all required approvals to effect these changes so that foreign investors would have the same rights as national investors, the company said in a statement sent to Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange.

Mubadala says Cepsa will consider IPO when conditions are favourable | Reuters

Mubadala says Cepsa will consider IPO when conditions are favourable | Reuters:

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Co said on Monday its fully-owned Spanish oil firm Cepsa will consider returning to the market when conditions are favourable.

Cepsa on Monday announced it was not proceeding with its initial public offering (IPO) and listing of its shares on the Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao and Valencia stock exchanges due to adverse market conditions.

“As a long-term investor, we will consider returning to the market when we believe conditions are favourable,” Musabbeh al Kaabi, chief executive of Mubadala’s Petroleum & Petrochemicals platform, said in a statement.

UPDATE 1-Saudi riyal at weakest since June 2017 on Khashoggi case | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Saudi riyal at weakest since June 2017 on Khashoggi case | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s riyal was quoted at 3.7514 to the U.S. dollar in the spot market early on Monday, its weakest rate since June 2017, Refinitiv data showed, as the kingdom faced pressure over missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The central bank maintains a peg of 3.75 riyals to the dollar, and usually, the currency fluctuates in a range of about 3.7498-3.7503.

Saudi financial markets have come under pressure in the last few days as U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to punish Riyadh if it turns out that Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul as alleged by the Turkish authorities. The stock market sank 3.5 percent on Sunday.

Breakingviews - Cox: Global finance has a Saudi Arabia problem | Reuters

Breakingviews - Cox: Global finance has a Saudi Arabia problem | Reuters:

Is global finance complicit with Saudi Arabian tyranny? Following the alleged assassination of a journalist critical of the kingdom, that’s the question leaders of the world’s biggest banks and investment firms must ask themselves before they fuel up their jets and head to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “Davos in the Desert” in just over a week. From a strictly moral perspective, if they believe a scintilla of what has been put forward by Turkish authorities, they should bow out as JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon did Sunday night.

The top American, European and Japanese banks and investment firms do business with many governments and regimes their executives can’t be particularly proud of at dinner time with the family. They rationalize the work by saying if they don’t do it, someone else will; and, anyway, they’re in no position to judge the political systems of other nations. These are potentially defensible arguments that can be applied to many clients associated with China, Russia and other countries accused of human-rights abuses.

The Saudi case adds a complicated wrinkle to this calculus. First, the Saudis deny involvement in the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, who entered the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul and didn’t come out, Reuters reported. Second, there is little guidance from above on how to proceed. President Donald Trump has expressed dismay over the alleged killing by Saudi agents. But Trump, who has branded the U.S. press as “enemies of the people,” also said he didn’t want the matter to affect a $110 billion sale of arms to Saudi.

Dubai property prices sink, market equilibrium not expected soon - report | Reuters

Dubai property prices sink, market equilibrium not expected soon - report | Reuters:

Dubai property prices declined at an accelerated pace in the third quarter, with off-plan sales volumes impacted the most amid general market uncertainty, according to property consultancy Chestertons.

Average sales prices for apartments and villas have declined six percent from the previous quarter, the agent said in a report on Monday. Off-plan sales volumes were down 31 percent, compared with 11 percent for completed units.

“The downward price corrections witnessed in the first quarter and the second quarter of this year have continued throughout the third quarter, albeit at an increased pace,” the agent said in a report.

US sanctions on Riyadh would mean Washington is stabbing itself - Al Arabiya English

US sanctions on Riyadh would mean Washington is stabbing itself - Al Arabiya English:

I read the Saudi statement in response to the American proposals regarding sanctions on Saudi Arabia. The information circulating within decision-making circles within the kingdom have gone beyond the language used in the statement and discuss more than 30 potential measures to be taken against the imposition of sanctions on Riyadh. They present catastrophic scenarios that would hit the US economy much harder than Saudi Arabia’s economic climate.

If US sanctions are imposed on Saudi Arabia, we will be facing an economic disaster that would rock the entire world. Riyadh is the capital of its oil, and touching this would affect oil production before any other vital commodity. It would lead to Saudi Arabia's failure to commit to producing 7.5 million barrels. If the price of oil reaching $80 angered President Trump, no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure.

An oil barrel may be priced in a different currency, Chinese yuan, perhaps, instead of the dollar. And oil is the most important commodity traded by the dollar today.

JP Morgan and Ford cancel plans for Saudi investor event | Reuters

JP Morgan and Ford cancel plans for Saudi investor event | Reuters:

JP Morgan & Chase Co (JPM.N) Chief Executive Jamie Dimon and Ford Motor Co (F.N) Chairman Bill Ford canceled plans to attend a Saudi investor conference, the companies said on Sunday, the latest such high-profile announcements after the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The cancellations could add pressure on other U.S. firms like Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), Mastercard Inc (MA.N) and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) to reconsider their plans to attend the investor event.

Oil prices rise on Saudi tensions; demand outlook drags | Reuters

Oil prices rise on Saudi tensions; demand outlook drags | Reuters:

Crude oil futures rose on Monday as geopolitical tensions over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked supply worries, though concerns over the long-term demand outlook dragged on prices.

Benchmark Brent crude oil jumped by $1.49 a barrel to a high of $81.92 before slipping to $80.83, up 40 cents, by 0745 GMT. U.S. crude was last up 20 cents at $71.54.

“Growing tensions over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul has proved supportive for oil prices,” said ING commodities strategist Warren Patterson.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi recovers some losses, most of Gulf inches up | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi recovers some losses, most of Gulf inches up | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s stock market partially recovered early on Monday from steep losses triggered by the disappearance of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, encouraging a modest uptrend throughout the region.

The Saudi index, which had tumbled 7.2 percent over the previous two trading days because of concern the Khashoggi case could trigger U.S. sanctions against Riyadh and shrink inflows of foreign investment, rebounded 2.2 percent in the first half-hour on Monday.

Petrochemical firms that had led the declines were particularly strong on Monday. The Gulf’s biggest petrochemical producer, Saudi Basic Industries, jumped 4.4 percent.