Could Saudi Arabia be telling porkies when it comes to its spare capacity capabilities?
It’s something Goldman Sachs analysts are wondering on Tuesday.
For example, they’ve deduced — from reverse-engineering the kingdom’s production levels — that Saudi may have raised output before the crisis in Libya ever broke out.
Or, as they put it:
… we believe that Saudi Arabia was already producing significantly more than indicated in official reports. Recent news reports suggest that Saudi Arabia is currently producing more than 9 million b/d of crude, roughly 700 thousand b/d above the official supply number for January. While this sharp increase seems to be a reaction to the recent collapse in Libyan output, some reports suggest that Saudi Arabia had already significantly increased production prior to the turmoil in Libya, which is more in line with our view.
Now, this is potentially problematic because of the implications it has for Opec spare capacity all round, as reflected in the chart below:
No comments:
Post a Comment