Saudi Arabia Gets IMF Growth Downgrade On OPEC+ Supply Moves - Bloomberg
The International Monetary Fund downgraded its growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia by more than any other major economy it tracks, citing the decision by the oil alliance OPEC+ to extend production cuts.
The outlook for the Middle East’s biggest economy was cut by 1.3 percentage point to 3.3% for this year, the Washington-based lender said, continuing a pattern of downward revisions for the kingdom from last year. The fund also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 4.1%.
The IMF’s projection for 2025 is lower than that of the Saudi Finance Ministry. The government slashed its forecasts in September and sees growth at 4.6% this year, and 3.5% for 2026. Growth of close to 4% over the next few years would still outpace most other growth in Group-of-20 nations.
Saud Arabia is spending heavily on diversifying the economy under Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s so-called Vision 2030 strategy. The kingdom has projected budget deficits through at least 2027 as it chooses to spend on its diversification at the same time the government is facing lower oil receipts.
The OPEC+ alliance, led by the Saudis and Russia, has delayed three times the restart of oil production halted since 2022, fearing that reviving output would tip global crude markets into a surplus and depress prices. The group currently intends to gradually restore supplies in modest tranches of roughly 120,000 barrels per day from April, and will likely review its plans in early March.
The country needs Brent at north of $90 a barrel this year to balance its budget, the IMF has said. Brent crude has risen this year to trade near $80 a barrel but remains far off that target.
The kingdom and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, know as the PIF, have have raised billions of dollars of debt to fund the crown prince’s plans and may continue to be a major issuer of international debt in 2025.
The government has long focused on growing its non-oil economy, where the vast bulk of Saudis are employed. That has so far led to a 50-50 make up of oil to non-oil GDP growth.
Wednesday, 22 January 2025
Most Gulf markets rise amid tariff uncertainty | Reuters
Most Gulf markets rise amid tariff uncertainty | Reuters
Most stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Wednesday amid general caution in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's recent policy announcements, with the Qatari index outperforming thanks to strong corporate earnings.
Trump said late on Tuesday that his administration was considering imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting on Feb. 1. He previously said that Mexico and Canada could face tariffs of around 25% from the same date.
Such a move could significantly affect global trade and economic stability, with potential consequences including higher prices for consumers and reduced economic growth.
Trump also threatened duties on European imports, without providing further details.
The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab advanced 1.1%, led by a 3.9% jump in Commercial Bank (COMB.QA), opens new tab, after it reported a net profit of 3.03 billion riyals ($832.14 million) for 2024, little changed from last year, while proposing a nearly 20% higher full-year cash dividend.
Qatar Fuel Company (QFLS.QA), opens new tab finished 1.8% higher, ahead of its earnings announcement.
Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab added 0.2%, helped by a 1.4% gain in top lender Emirates NBD (ENBD.DU), opens new tab.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab fell 0.1%, hit by a 1.5% fall in ACWA Power Company (2082.SE), opens new tab, while digital security firm Elm Company (7203.SE), opens new tab retreated 4%, as the firm agreed to acquire business services firm Thiqah from the country's sovereign wealth fund Public Investment Fund in a deal valued at 3.4 billion riyals ($906.4 million).
Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal's investment company Kingdom Holding (KHC) (4280.SE), opens new tab advanced 3.2%, after its CEO told Al Arabiya TV that the firm would be interested in investing in ByteDance's TikTok if Elon Musk or others stepped in to buy it.
Outside the Gulf, EGypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab rose 0.5%, as most of its constituents were in positive territory.
The Egyptian stock market continued its upward momentum, driven by sustained optimism and eased geopolitical tensions, which contributed to the market's recovery, said Milad Azar Market analyst at XTB MENA.
Most stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Wednesday amid general caution in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's recent policy announcements, with the Qatari index outperforming thanks to strong corporate earnings.
Trump said late on Tuesday that his administration was considering imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting on Feb. 1. He previously said that Mexico and Canada could face tariffs of around 25% from the same date.
Such a move could significantly affect global trade and economic stability, with potential consequences including higher prices for consumers and reduced economic growth.
Trump also threatened duties on European imports, without providing further details.
The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab advanced 1.1%, led by a 3.9% jump in Commercial Bank (COMB.QA), opens new tab, after it reported a net profit of 3.03 billion riyals ($832.14 million) for 2024, little changed from last year, while proposing a nearly 20% higher full-year cash dividend.
Qatar Fuel Company (QFLS.QA), opens new tab finished 1.8% higher, ahead of its earnings announcement.
Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab added 0.2%, helped by a 1.4% gain in top lender Emirates NBD (ENBD.DU), opens new tab.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab fell 0.1%, hit by a 1.5% fall in ACWA Power Company (2082.SE), opens new tab, while digital security firm Elm Company (7203.SE), opens new tab retreated 4%, as the firm agreed to acquire business services firm Thiqah from the country's sovereign wealth fund Public Investment Fund in a deal valued at 3.4 billion riyals ($906.4 million).
Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal's investment company Kingdom Holding (KHC) (4280.SE), opens new tab advanced 3.2%, after its CEO told Al Arabiya TV that the firm would be interested in investing in ByteDance's TikTok if Elon Musk or others stepped in to buy it.
Outside the Gulf, EGypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab rose 0.5%, as most of its constituents were in positive territory.
The Egyptian stock market continued its upward momentum, driven by sustained optimism and eased geopolitical tensions, which contributed to the market's recovery, said Milad Azar Market analyst at XTB MENA.
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