#SaudiArabia's growth this year marred by lower for longer oil output | Reuters

Saudi Arabia's growth this year marred by lower for longer oil output | Reuters

Saudi Arabia's economic growth will likely be one of the slowest among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists who lowered growth forecasts from three months ago due to extended oil output cuts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, were expected to start raising production this year but in June said the reductions would continue well into 2025.

Despite the war in the Middle East, oil prices have struggled to stay above $80 per barrel, prompting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cut this year's growth forecast for Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region.

The latest Reuters poll of 24 economists taken July 8-22 showed Saudi Arabia's economy would expand 1.3% this year, down from 1.9% forecast in an April survey and substantially lower than the 3.0% predicted in January.

"Lower oil revenues are impacting non-oil growth. Saudi Arabia is in the process of an overhaul of Vision 2030 and adjusting investment spending...The impact on real GDP growth is clear – less investment means a more moderate growth outlook," said Ralf Wiegert, director of MENA economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Economists said lower oil revenues were likely to constrain investments in non-oil sectors, affecting the overall expansion in 2024.

But the Saudi growth forecast for 2025 was upped to 4.5% from 4.1%in April.

"Expected growth has been increased for 2025...The reason for that is a change in expected oil production, which we think will be increased earlier than previously projected – though not back to the level that prevailed until July 2023," added Wiegert.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), also focused on diversifying its economy, was expected to expand faster than its neighbour this year - 3.7% - as it soon ramps up oil production and continues to focus on tourism, followed by 4.2% growth in 2025.

Gulf bourses end mixed on earnings, US rate-cut hopes | Reuters

Gulf bourses end mixed on earnings, US rate-cut hopes | Reuters

Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Monday ahead of more corporate earnings this week, while investors watched for further signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve might start to cut interest rates as soon as September.

The Fed is due to review policy next on July 30-31. Investors expect it to keep rates unchanged, but they will look for further evidence that a cut will happen at the September meeting.

Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council is usually guided by the Fed's decisions, as most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab eased 0.2%, with aluminium products manufacturer Al Taiseer Group (4143.SE), opens new tab losing 2.9% while ACWA Power Company (2082.SE), opens new tab was down 3.3%.

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - dipped after Joe Biden announced he would not seek a second term as U.S. president, and while investors watched for more signs that U.S. interest rates could be cut as early as September.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab finished 0.6% higher, with the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab rising 1% and Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB.QA), opens new tab increasing 2% following a rise in first-half net profit.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab eased 0.1%, with MashreqBank (MASB.DU), opens new tab retreating 3.3%.

Separately, budget carrier flydubai's fleet expansion plans have been hit by delays to Boeing's (BA.N), opens new tab aircraft delivery schedule, the Dubai airline said on Monday.

flydubai, which has more than 125 Boeing 737 MAX jets on order to be delivered over the next decade, urged the U.S. manufacturer to "honour and renew its commitment" to meet its delivery obligations.

The Abu Dhabi index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab closed 0.4% higher.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab gained 0.7%, led by a 2.7% jump in top lender Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab after it posted a sharp rise in second-quarter net profit.

Ray Dalio’s Exit Terms at Bridgewater Said to Delay #AbuDhabi Plans - Bloomberg

Ray Dalio’s Exit Terms at Bridgewater Said to Delay Abu Dhabi Plans - Bloomberg

An investment partnership between Ray Dalio’s family office and Abu Dhabi royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan has been delayed as Bridgewater Associates grapples with the legal terms of its billionaire founder’s exit from the firm.

One of the questions is whether Dalio, who built Bridgewater into a $160 billion behemoth, might use the company’s intellectual property if he proceeds with the tie-up, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.

The 74-year-old signed a non-compete agreement upon departing the world’s largest hedge fund several years ago, the people said, requesting anonymity as the matter is private. Dalio’s planned venture with Sheikh Tahnoon, one of Bridgewater’s top clients, will put that contract under the microscope, they said.

“Bridgewater and Ray have both communicated that there have been no discussions or conflicts between Ray and Bridgewater on those topics, and that anything suggesting otherwise is completely false,” Dalio and Bridgewater said in a statement. “Bridgewater does not comment on its client partnerships, past or present.”

The American investor and Emirati royal were planning to launch the partnership in the middle of last year, according to people familiar with the matter. They’ve been looking to team up on an asset management arm based within Abu Dhabi’s international financial center for G42, the artificial intelligence firm set up by Sheikh Tahnoon, the people said.

Dalio could potentially manage some of the money for a fee, they said, though he has been providing informal advice in the interim.

Representatives for the Dalio Family Office didn’t respond to requests for comment. A G42 spokesperson confirmed that the firm and the DFO are exploring ways of cooperating, though they’ve yet to enter any formal business collaboration.

Dalio has been the face of Abu Dhabi’s recent success in drawing hedge fund luminaries and set up a branch of his personal investment firm in the emirate last year. That’s part of a broader collaboration with Sheikh Tahnoon — the money man for the world’s richest family. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, now chaired by the royal, was one of Bridgewater’s top backers when Dalio started the firm half a century ago.

While a formal launch of the DFO-G42 partnership has stalled, several employees have moved between the two companies.

Among them is Ali Hegazi, who recently joined Dalio’s family office in Abu Dhabi as director of investment research and strategy following previous stints at G42 and ADIA, according to people familiar with the matter.

G42, which has ambitions to become an AI superpower in the Middle East, has faced scrutiny on some of its investments. Earlier this year, its chief executive pledged to turn away from China in favor of the US. A new investment vehicle in Abu Dhabi recently took over the management of the company’s China-focused fund, keeping the assets in the hands of Sheikh Tahnoon, Bloomberg News has reported.

Dalio and G42 have already teamed up in the environmental space, working on oceanic research as part of a project aimed at protecting Indonesia’s marine ecosystem.

Mideast IPO Appetite Strong, Will Continue to See Reasonable Supply: Nomura's #Fadlallah

Mideast IPO Appetite Strong, Will Continue to See Reasonable Supply: Nomura's Fadlallah

Nomura Asset Management Middle East CEO Tarek Fadlallah says IPOs in the Gulf region should continue to see good demand, in an interview with Joumanna Bercetche on Horizons: Middle East & Africa. (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch HSBC's Williams on Middle East, Asia Trade - Bloomberg

Watch HSBC's Williams on Middle East, Asia Trade - Bloomberg

Simon Williams, HSBC CEEMEA Chief Economist, discusses Middle East trade with Asia. He speaks with Joumanna Bercetche and Jennifer Zabasajja on Horizons: Middle East & Africa. (Source: Bloomberg)

Sovereign Funds Are Turning Bullish on Emerging Markets, Invesco Survey Shows - Bloomberg

Sovereign Funds Are Turning Bullish on Emerging Markets, Invesco Survey Shows - Bloomberg

Sovereign wealth funds and central banks that oversee $22 trillion in assets expect emerging-market assets to benefit from rising geopolitical tensions, an annual survey by Invesco Asset Management shows.

Two thirds of the respondents expect emerging-market returns to match or beat those from developed markets over the next three years, with non-western SWFs more keen on the relative outperformance, according to the survey conducted among 83 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks during the first quarter of 2024.

The idea is that tensions between the US and China favor developing countries as companies shift supply chains across locations and suppliers amid concerns over rising trade barriers between the world’s two largest economies.

Investors aren’t treating developing markets as a homogeneous bloc, with emerging Asian countries, excluding China, becoming a favorite. India in particular has become the top play thanks to its large domestic market and growing middle class, with 88% of respondents expressing interest in increasing exposure to the country’s debt, up from 66% in 2022.

Indonesia is also getting more interest with 47% looking to increase exposure to its debt, up from 27% in 2022, while China saw a decline to 35% from 71%, according to Invesco.

Over half of the survey’s participants invest in emerging-market debt, with more than two thirds of these holding both local and hard currency bonds, often through ETFs. Dollar-denominated government and corporate bonds from emerging issuers gained 3.4% this year, compared with a 1.3% loss on global aggregate debt and a 2.8% loss on US Treasuries, Bloomberg indexes show.

The survey also showed rising popularity of private credit among sovereign investors, with two-thirds of them planning to increase their allocation in the coming year. The interest can be attributed to factors such as the sector’s “strong performance” and its use as a diversification strategy compared with fixed-income.

Overall, fixed-income allocations remained steady at 28% while equity allocations increased to 32% this year from 30% a year ago, the survey showed. The optimism about steady or accelerating global growth over the next 18 months, and confidence in the US economy, is tempered by a range of risks including geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation.

The impact of geopolitics — including discussions over whether to confiscate currently frozen Russian reserves to help Ukraine — are pushing central banks toward gold, according to the survey. Nearly half of the respondents also said that rising US debt levels have increased the metal’s appeal.

BlackRock Boosts Mideast Presence, Relocates Strategist to #Dubai - Bloomberg

BlackRock Boosts Mideast Presence, Relocates Strategist to Dubai - Bloomberg

BlackRock Inc. is expanding its research division to the Middle East and relocating a senior strategist to Dubai as it seeks closer ties with clients in the region.

The asset management giant named Ben Powell as the chief strategist for Middle East and Asia Pacific of its so-called BlackRock Investment Institute, the unit that publishes research for its portfolio managers and clients about the global economy, geopolitics and financial markets.

Powell, a 23-year capital markets veteran, moves to Dubai from Singapore. He will focus on “building proprietary Middle East macroeconomic, markets and multi-asset class insights,” according to a statement. He’ll continue to oversee the unit’s activities in the APAC region.

“The Middle East presents a dynamic and exciting investment landscape, with a growing young population, evolving financial markets and innovative funds,” Powell said.

BlackRock, which oversees more than $100 billion in the Middle East and Africa, has been boosting its presence in the Gulf region. It’s agreed to set up a Riyadh-based investments team after getting as much as $5 billion from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. Last month, it also appointed a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive to head its United Arab Emirates branch.

Doha Bank’s H1 2024 profit rises 10% to $119mln

Doha Bank’s H1 2024 profit rises 10% to $119mln

Doha Bank said its net profit for the first half of 2024 rose 10.3% year-on-year (YoY) to 432 million Qatari riyals ($118.5 million) on higher loans and advances.

Net loans and advances reached QAR 59 billion, up 5.7% YoY, the bank said in a filing on the Qatar Stock Exchange.

Customer deposits surged 17% to QAR 51.6 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to QAR 44.1 billion last year.

Total assets stood at QAR 105.9 billion as of June 30, 2024, rising 13.8% from QAR 93.0 billion a year earlier.

Major Gulf markets gain on earnings, US rate-cut hopes; #Dubai eases | Reuters

Major Gulf markets gain on earnings, US rate-cut hopes; Dubai eases | Reuters

Most major stock markets in the Gulf rose in early trade on Monday, helped by positive earnings, while investors watched for further signs that the U.S. Federal reserve might start to cut interest rates as soon as September.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is due to review policy next on July 30-31, when investors expect it to keep rates unchanged. But they will look for further evidence that a cut will happen at the September meeting.

Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is usually guided by the Fed's decisions as most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab gained 0.2%, with Dr Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital (4017.SE), opens new tab advancing 5.7%.

The kingdom's mining minister will visit Brazil and Chile over the coming two weeks, the ministry said on Sunday, as the world's leading oil exporter seeks to expand its international presence in mining.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab added 0.4%, with Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB.QA), opens new tab increasing 1.8%, following a rise in first-half net profit.

Elsewhere, Doha Bank (DOBK.QA), opens new tab added 0.3%, after reporting an increase in second-quarter net profit.

The Abu Dhabi index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab was up 0.3%.

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - inched higher, with scant sign of progress on a ceasefire deal in Gaza as Israeli forces battled Palestinian fighters in the southern city of Rafah on Sunday.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab, however, slipped 0.2%, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab losing 0.8%.