GCC Market Analytics: More Price Projections Using Pattern Matching

In the last post I described a method of formulating price projections based on a pattern matching approach applied to the DFM General Index. Below are the price projections for the other GCC indices.

As a reminder, the pattern matching approach can be summarised as follows (for a more detailed explanation see the previous post here):

1. Compare the current 25 day index price movement against all previous 25 day price movements
2. Select the three matches that correlate most closely with the current 25 day price movement
3. Note the subsequent 20 day price movements for each of the three best matches
4. Project the current price 20 days into the future based on subsequent price movements of the three best matches

In the charts below the light blue line is the current 25 day index price movement. The red, green and orange lines are price projections based on three best historical matches. The red, green and orange markers in the smaller inset chart highlight the three best historical match periods on the respective index.

Enjoy.