GCC Market Analytics: A Quick Look at the US Employment Situation

Below is a chart (via Calculated Risk blog) comparing all post WWII employment recessions in the US.

The current employment recession (red line) stands out in both its severity and duration. The number of jobs lost (about -6% from the peak employment rate at the lowest point) is greater than any post WWII employment decline. And if that wasn't bad enough the current employment recession has already lasted longer than all but one other post WWII employment decline (and is on track to be longer than that one as well).

[ click to enlarge ]

And all of this is despite the truly massive amounts of money the Fed has been throwing at the US economy over the past two years (in an interview this weekend Ben Bernake said unemployment could have reached 25% withouut the US Central Bank's intervention).

The point here is that the current employment situation in the US and, for that matter, the wider economic situation doesn't conform to a typical post WWII slowdown. Beware of analysis and economic predictions that assumes we are.