It is nearly 75 years since George Antonius wrote of the first “Arab awakening”, one reflecting an outbreak of nationalist sentiment against European masters. What we are currently witnessing could prove to be a second such awakening; one neither generated by, nor aimed at Israel and the US, but a home-grown phenomenon that targets unresponsive, repressive leaders.
We cannot be sure, however, whether what we are seeing is a genuine democratic revolution. In some countries, protests will fizzle out. In others they could become chaotic, especially if oppositions splinter having achieved the one objective on which they agree: the ousting of the existing regime; Egypt and Tunisia both come to mind here.
Or repression could rule the day, if governments show resolve and are willing (and able) to crack down with impunity. This might prove to be the case in Libya, but even then the cycle of challenge to authority could begin anew. In all cases generalisations should be resisted. Each country is different, while references to a wave of change are simplistic. A range of political outcomes are likely to be reached, taking divergent paths.
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