The positives include (i) Oman's improved operating environment; (ii) banks' solid capitalisation under Moody's base-case and stress-case scenarios; (iii) stable funding bases and high liquidity buffers; (iv) low levels of non-performing loans (NPLs); and (v) Moody's expectation of adequate earnings, despite higher operating costs. The negative factors affecting Omani banks are continued high credit risks due to single-party exposures, as well as the banks' limited geographic diversification and high reliance on the oil-dependent domestic economy.
The outlook expresses Moody's expectations for the fundamental credit conditions in this sector over the next 12-18 months.
"We forecast that Oman's real GDP will likely to expand by 2.9% in 2011, fueled by high oil prices and increased oil production, whilst accelerated public spending will also stimulate economic growth outside the oil sector," explains Elena Panayiotou, a Moody's analyst and author of the report.
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