According to Sean Daykin, had of investment at the asset management arm of EmiratesNBD, the three "plausible" outlooks for 2012 fall under the headings of: "muddle through"; "re-acceleration", or, a "return to 2008" (remember Lehman Brothers — a bad thing).
The global background for painting these scenarios is the current climate of negativity, well expressed in the front cover of the New York Times' business section on January 1: a baby wearing the 2012 sash balls his eyes out at the new year accompanied by his iPhone and investment charts.
Picking through the probability of three plausible scenarios, Daykin sees the "muddle through" as the most probable (70 per cent probability). Under this scenario, politicians in the US and Europe, together with the international cadre of central banks, will "continue to come up with last minute solutions to prevent crisis. We will get closer to a long-term solution to sovereign debt as the year progresses".
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