Monday, 12 August 2013

Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf | A Chatham House Report - August 2013

PDF at headline
Executive Summary

The systemic waste of natural resources in the Gulf is  eroding economic resilience to shocks and increasing security risks. The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries now consume more primary energy than the  whole of Africa. Yet they have just one-twentieth of that  continent’s population. Almost 100% of energy is produced  from oil and gas without carbon dioxide abatement. If the  region’s fuel demand were to continue rising as it has over  the last decade, it would double by 2024. This is a deeply  undesirable prospect for both the national security of each  state and the global environment. Output generated is not commensurate with energy used. Energy intensity regionally (units of energy per unit of GDP) is high and rising in  contrast to other industrialized regions, and this is driven  by systemic inefficiencies. The situation threatens sustainability on several levels, and is exacerbated by groundwater  depletion and an increasing reliance on oil- or gas-fuelled  desalination.

Between 2011 and 2013, Chatham House worked with partner institutions, policy-makers and technical experts  in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman,  Qatar and Kuwait to support practical strategies to reduce  energy intensity. This report is based on the discussions at  six workshops which included representatives of over 60  local institutions with a critical interest in and influence  over domestic energy. To our knowledge, this is the first  report to offer practical recommendations that address the
key challenges of governance, political commitment and  market incentives from a GCC-wide perspective.

Remarkable progress is evident in the clean energy  targets and efficiency strategies that have sprung up across the region since 2009. Recognizing the risks in  the current system and the economic potential from new sectors, GCC governments have dramatically scaled  up plans that emphasize ‘sustainable energy’ transition.  For Saudi Arabia securing future hydrocarbons export  capacity is a priority. Across the region, remaining ahead  in the energy industry and preparing for multiple resource  stresses and price volatility are common drivers. The  ballooning costs of subsidies – and in the case of the UAE  and Kuwait, gas imports – make a clear business case for  government-led efficiency interventions. Estimates by the International Monetary Fund of the energy subsidy  burden on individual governments ranged between 9%  and 28% of government revenue in 2011. This is more than  is being spent on either health or education, and highlights  a missed opportunity to improve the living standards of  those who need it most.

All GCC countries now have clean energy plans or  targets and there are several impressive steps towards conservation. These include Saudi Arabia’s emerging  efficiency master plan, Abu Dhabi’s comprehensive cooling  plan, the integration of energy strategy in Dubai, innovation in green buildings standards in the UAE and Qatar,  and Oman’s and Dubai’s work towards cost-reflective  utilities pricing. Comprehensive development strategies  that aim at a ‘low carbon pathway’ or ‘green growth’ are also emerging (in Qatar and the UAE).

But in all GCC countries the effectiveness of plans  hangs in the balance, chiefly owing to governance challenges, lack of market incentives and unpredictable political support.

'via Blog this'

No comments:

Post a Comment