Wednesday, 27 November 2013

Aslund: Ukraine - The Basket Case - Opinion - News - Ukraine Business Online

Aslund: Ukraine - The Basket Case - Opinion - News - Ukraine Business Online:

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By ANDERS ÅSLUND*

Recently, a big investment bank invited me to give a talk about the Ukrainian economy. I was happily surprised to find 300 interested fund managers in the hall, showing that Ukraine is a current focus of hedge-fund managers. The present Ukrainian intrigue is thick, involving the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union (EU), and, of course, Russia. The United States, by contrast, is strangely absent from this drama.

For years, the Ukrainian government has pursued a disastrous economic policy, rendering a serious financial crisis possible or even likely. The outlook for Ukraine's economy looks even worse now that Ukraine's leaders have put the brakes on a planned agreement to deepen cooperation with the European Union. The last-minute decision by Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, to cancel the signing of an Association Agreement with Brussels is being widely attributed -- not least by Yanukovych and EU officials themselves -- to pressure from Russia, which has been threatening Ukraine with draconian sanctions if the country does sign the EU agreement. This drama deserves wide attention."

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