EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Understanding Turkey: Volatile Politics, but No Crisis Ahead

EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Understanding Turkey: Volatile Politics, but No Crisis Ahead:

Key takeaway – Over the next five years, AKP is likely to stay in power, and Prime Minister (PM) Erdoğan is likely to rule the country either as President or PM. Frictions with the opposition will persist: the weakening of democratic institutions is likely to unsettle the civil society and create political headwinds in the Parliament, constraining and delaying policy-making. Yet, a major political crisis is unlikely.

A. AKP to keep ruling amid political frictions and weakening institutions.

Erdoğan and AKP to rule over the next five years … In the March 2014 local elections, AKP won 43.5 percent of the votes, a decline from the 49 percent of the 2011 general elections – but an improvement if compared to the 38 percent secured in 2009, in the previous local elections. Well organized and structured, AKP is able to unite right-leaning, conservative, and Islamic voters across the country (Figure 1) and crystallize the aspirations of the underprivileged. Led by PM Erdoğan and in power over the past 12 years, AKP has steadily reached out to the silent low-income majority, offered an identity and political inclusion to the religious rural, and – by successfully managing the economy – contributed to the making of an increasingly sizable middle-class. The two main opposition parties are unable to provide viable alternatives. The center left, Western-leaning social-democratic CHP has reduced its platform to an “anti-Erdoğan” agenda, while the nationalist, conservative MHP is unable to attract AKP voters. The latest polls suggest that little has changed since the March elections: support for AKP is at around 44 percent, with CHP at 28 percent, MHP at 15 percent and the Kurdish party at around 6 percent.

Figure 1 – Over the past 12 years, AKP has consolidated right-leaning, Islamic voters (Turkey – Past eight elections, distribution of votes (%))

Source: Election Board, Authors’ calculations, 2014.

Note: Center-right parties – DP, DYP, ANAP, and GP. Left-leaning parties – CHP, DSP, and İP. Nationalist parties – MHP, BBP, and BTP. Islamic parties – SP. Kurdish Parties – BDP (formerly DTP) and HDP, arguably a leftist party as well.

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