Guest post: Russia, the submerging market | beyondbrics:
"After Vladimir Putin swept back to power in 2012, he had the air of a chess grandmaster: plotting each intricate move from the Kremlin. He swiftly annexed Crimea, suppressed opposition at home, and antagonised a seemingly vulnerable and tactically inept West at every turn.
With oil comfortably around $100 barrel – the government’s treasury was swelling and his opinion rating at home was soaring. How quickly fortunes change! Now the rouble has plummeted, Western sanctions have gripped, allies are in short supply, and a recession more bitter than a Russian winter looks set to take hold. It appears as if Vladmir Putin has spectacularly over played his hand. From an emerging market, Russia may well now be submerging.
This week’s 17-hour meeting in Minsk brought some relief to the markets as the first details of the ceasefire agreement were revealed. These include a broad ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, an amnesty for prisoners involved in fighting, lifting of restrictions in rebel areas and constitutional reforms that grant more independence to Donetsk and Luhansk by the end of 2015."
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