OPEC Deal With Russia Is Showing Signs of Strain - Bloomberg

OPEC Deal With Russia Is Showing Signs of Strain - Bloomberg:

"Saudi Arabia's former oil minister Ali al-Naimi complained in 2014 that Russia never followed through on its promises to reduce production during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and he assessed the chance of cuts at “zero." Under his successor, Khalid Al-Falih, Russia -- leading a group of non-OPEC states -- has engaged in unprecedented cooperation with the Saudi-guided Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Rising oil prices reflect some market optimism, but strains are again showing in the deal, up for renewal or expiry in March 2018. A failure to renew the accord would add further oversupply. Despite a bump in August, compliance is already weakening slowly. The conditions in the first half of this year were the most favorable: Russian production usually is stagnant in spring, due to weather. At the same time, Saudi domestic demand for power generation was lower, and Iraq and Iran struggled to boost output. Nonetheless, OPEC exports did not decline nearly as much as reported falls in production. Since then, Libyan production, though volatile, has recovered substantially, while Nigerian output also came back, as both have been exempt from cuts under the arrangement. Iran has recently started exceeding its agreed cap slightly, with production inching up, while investment is returning in Iraq, which has reluctantly agreed to the deal. To meet summer domestic demand, Saudi Arabia moved from over-complying to merely complying. OPEC’s goal of removing 1.16 million barrels per day from its October 2016 production has shrunk to only 489,000 bpd, taking into account the two exempt countries, while exports are down just 213,000 bpd, according to the tanker-tracking service Kpler."



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