4 Deaths That Will Remake the Middle East - Bloomberg

4 Deaths That Will Remake the Middle East - Bloomberg:

There is now a consensus that any political transformation of the Middle East — a long-cherished goal of both U.S. policymakers and millions who live there — will not be achieved by revolution, foreign intervention or civil war. The failure of the Arab Spring, the disastrous consequences of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and the ongoing catastrophe in Syria have shattered fantasies of sudden change.

It is more fashionable these days to pin hope on demographics and technology — the theory that a massive cohort of young people, armed with smartphones, will succeed where all other efforts have failed.

But we may be overlooking a simpler, surer agent of change: human mortality. Death, especially that of longstanding rulers, has historically been a reliable harbinger of political, economic and social renewal. This is especially true when there’s a generational transfer of power — which is exactly what we’re about to witness in the Middle East.