Oil, Populist Leaders and the Dollar: Guide to EM Risks in 2019 - Bloomberg

Oil, Populist Leaders and the Dollar: Guide to EM Risks in 2019 - Bloomberg:

Emerging markets are tentatively picking themselves up from the floor after a rout that’s wiped about $5 trillion off the value of stocks since a high in January 2018. But the reprieve may not last long.

Rising rates in the U.S., a stronger dollar, Beijing and Washington’s trade war, lower oil prices and the emergence of populist leaders in Latin America’s two biggest economies could all weigh on markets.

“The theory is dead simple: emerging-market assets have already bombed, so the downside, if things get worse, is much lower and if things recover they have greater potential to perform,” said Anthony Peters, an independent analyst, formerly at Blockex Ltd., who’s long covered developing nations. However, “they have the potential to go much lower for much longer than anybody had ever thought possible.”