The Big Oil Agencies’ Verdict on OPEC+ Pact: Glut Averted - Bloomberg

The Big Oil Agencies’ Verdict on OPEC+ Pact: Glut Averted - Bloomberg:

Oil producing states in OPEC and beyond are going to prevent a buildup of global crude inventories in the first half of this year—assuming they can resist the temptation to cheat on a December pact to restrict supplies.

That’s the main takeaway from supply-and-demand studies of the oil industry’s most-watched organizations: the International Energy Agency,  the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This story will monitor and compare the evolution of the three agencies’ key market interpretations on an on-going basis. 


The main agencies' implied supply-demand estimates for the first half of 2019 are set out in the chart below. Output curtailments in December — before OPEC and allied producers embarked on a fresh plan to curb production starting this month—already slashed the implied surplus in the first half of this year to about 750,000 barrels a day (the green columns).