Gulf conflict would see oil prices spike, ease, jump again: research - Reuters:
Oil would initially jump by $15-20 a barrel if Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, but prices would ease immediately once U.S. forces engaged, said U.S. consultancy Rapidan, which analyzed scenarios entailing oil flow disruption after a conflict.
Rapidan Energy Group said the oil price reaction would be “M” shaped – suggesting an initial and possibly premature relief sell-off would precede a second spike to higher levels.
Disruption in the strait would likely last longer than the market expected, Rapidan said, as Iran had the means to conduct intermittent but continuing attacks on shipping in the Gulf that could interrupt oil transit “for many weeks, if not longer”.
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