Wednesday, 8 January 2020

COLUMN-Where does Gulf crisis go after limited #Iran strikes?: Peter Apps - Reuters

COLUMN-Where does Gulf crisis go after limited Iran strikes?: Peter Apps - Reuters:

Iran’s Major General Qassem Soleimani would have been devastated to learn his surviving colleagues at the top of Iran’s government considered the firing of 20 missiles at U.S. bases a “proportionate response” to his assassination.

Whether Tehran’s military response is truly complete, of course, remains uncertain – although Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was unusually clear in tweeting shortly afterwards that the strikes “concluded a proportionate response”. Even if it is, the question is whether President Donald Trump will go through with his own Twitter threats to unleash overwhelming U.S. strikes – including against cultural sites – in retaliation. The lack of U.S. casualties, together with the president’s own tweet following the strikes that “all is well”, suggest that will not happen.

If further direct military action can be avoided, that would be a relief to many in Washington and across the region – and, in some quarters, seen as something of a vindication of the decision to strike. Had Soleimani not been killed, supporters of the action will maintain, the United States could have been trapped in a dangerous cycle of escalation in Iraq that could have killed many more.

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