Saudi Aramco has deployed its triple-bottomed dividend defences sooner than expected. The Saudi state energy giant is handing $18.75 billion to investors this quarter even though earnings plunged to little more than a third of that amount. It’s a contrast with rivals BP and Royal Dutch Shell, which both trimmed their payouts. But even if crude demand plunges again, the $1.8 trillion firm has multiple ways of ensuring rewards for shareholders.
Given that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude briefly turned negative in April, Aramco’s net income of $6.6 billion in the three months to June is a testament to its efficiency. On average, each barrel of oil cost it just $7.5 to produce, including $4.7 per unit of capital spending. Even at an average price of just $23, Aramco remains comfortably in the black.
A gradual recovery in crude prices is Aramco boss Amin Nasser’s first wish. The black stuff is now trading at $44 a barrel, and with gasoline and diesel demand in China almost back at pre-crisis levels, Goldman Sachs analysts reckon it might finish the year as high as $63.
Even if prices remain subdued, however, Nasser has scope to ride out the storm. With just $6.1 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, Aramco will effectively borrow nearly $13 billion to fund its payout. After this year’s takeover of petrochemicals group Saudi Basic Industries, net debt has jumped to $286 billion. But that’s still only a fifth of total funding, compared with 36% for BP. To hit a similar ratio, Aramco would have to fund its $75 billion annual dividend entirely out of debt three years in a row.
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