Oil stockpiles may be coming down, but the world’s big producers can’t afford to relax their hold on production for a while yet. The recovery this year will return less than two-thirds of oil demand lost in 2020 and output restraint will be needed for many months to come.
The world’s three major oil agencies — the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — are moving toward to a consensus that sees year-on-year global oil demand growth in 2021 at somewhere near 5.5 million barrels a day, close to where the IEA pegged it when it first began publishing detailed forecasts for the year, back in July.
At that time, its view looked pessimistic, with the agency seeing growth about 1.5 million barrels a day lower than its counterparts, but the EIA and OPEC have repeatedly trimmed their forecasts since then (see chart below).
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