Oil to sustain surprise rally despite Iran, third COVID-19 wave threat | Reuters
Who of the traditional bulls predicted a rally that saw oil prices doubling in the last eight months? The short answer is no one.
Of more than 50 analysts polled by Reuters last October when Brent was hovering near $35 per barrel amid a second large wave of global lockdowns to slow the coronavirus pandemic, almost none dared to predict prices would approach $60.
U.S. bank Goldman Sachs saw second-quarter average prices hitting $57.50 a barrel and much smaller Houston-based consultancy Stratas Advisors had the boldest bet at $60.
As prices have exceeded $75 per barrel this June, the most accurate forecasters predict a further rally fuelled by recovering demand and tight OPEC supply – albeit at a more modest pace.
Overall, the 44 analysts polled by Reuters this month forecast benchmark Brent prices to average about $67.48 a barrel this year, up from the $64.79 consensus in May.
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