For some of the world’s biggest money managers, the OPEC+ oil-price feud is little more than a sideshow when it comes to emerging markets.
Investors and strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say the post-pandemic economic recovery will stoke demand for raw materials across the board, buoying commodity-sensitive assets regardless of whether a crude accord is reached. Russia and Colombia are among the countries that stand to benefit in particular, according to Whitney Baker, the New York-based founder of Totem Macro, which advises funds overseeing more than $3 trillion.
“A generational opportunity exists today in many of the deepest-value emerging markets,” said Baker, the former head of emerging-market research at Bridgewater Associates. “Whether you export goods or whether you export commodities, you’re getting an external demand boom right now for pretty much whatever it is that you sell.”
Investors are looking beyond the spat between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and the danger that 2020’s oil production free-for-all will be replayed. The global surge in demand for everything from copper to clothes as economies pick up steam amid the vaccine rollout will provide a backstop for many developing nations, they say.
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