Tuesday 5 October 2021

Column: How high are oil prices really? Kemp | Reuters

Column: How high are oil prices really? Kemp | Reuters

How high are oil prices really and what signal are they currently sending to producers and consumers about the need for more output and lower fuel use?

The strength of a price signal depends on both the real level of prices adjusted for inflation and the rate of change compared with recent years.

In terms of the rate of change, prices are already sending a strong signal about the need to increase production and reduce consumption, as the recovery in demand has outstripped supply after last year’s coronavirus-induced slump.

Front-month Brent futures are currently trading at more than $82 per barrel, up from less than $38 at the end of the same month last year, one of the fastest price increases in percentage terms for three decades.

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