OPEC+ Is Being Way Too Optimistic About Its Supply Targets - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Is Being Way Too Optimistic About Its Supply Targets - Bloomberg

As a new month comes into sight, so too does another meeting of the OPEC+ group of oil producers, who are seeking to balance the oil market by gradually adding back the supply they removed almost two years ago in response to the first wave of Covid-19.

With one or two notable exceptions — the November gathering that saw the group refuse customers’ requests for a bigger-than-planned output increase being the most obvious — the virtual get-togethers have become almost routine, with the biggest surprises they have generated being their brevity.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all in favor of a few unexciting meetings.

The group is expected to agree to add another 400,000 barrels a day to supply in March — they already have a similar increase agreed for February — but are likely to fall even further behind their target when it comes to actual production. They’ve been struggling to keep pace with their plans to increase supply since first adopting them. Actual increases have lagged behind the target in three of the five months so far.