The Ukraine War’s Impacts in the Middle East: A Democracy in Exile Roundtable - @DawnMenaOrg

The Ukraine War’s Impacts in the Middle East: A Democracy in Exile Roundtable - DAWN

Six weeks after Russia's invasion, the war in Ukraine grinds on. The battlefield evokes Syria, with horrific scenes of besieged Ukrainian cities that look like Aleppo. Russia's military is terrorizing civilians and leaving behind harrowing evidence of war crimes.

Internationally, the war has rallied the United States and much of Europe to Ukraine's defense, reviving NATO. But it has simultaneously further hastened the arrival of a "post-American" world, as many countries elsewhere are maintaining what they claim is neutrality and hedging with Russia—from major democracies like India to even supposed U.S. allies and partners like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are especially acute in the Middle East and North Africa, and not just because of the importance of those oil producers in the Gulf as the war has upended global energy markets. Food security loomed over the region before the war, as it is highly dependent on food imports from Russia and Ukraine, especially wheat. The biggest rifts that the war has exposed in U.S. foreign policy also involve some of Washington's closest Middle Eastern allies.

To understand what the war in Ukraine means for the Middle East and North Africa, Democracy in Exile reached out to a wide range of experts, including DAWN's own non-resident fellows. We asked what they expect to be the war's most significant and lasting impact in the region.